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July 27, 2020 "The evaluation offered in the Pnr is that the marked contraction of the product of the first half of the year (particularly strong in the second quarter), will be followed by an appreciable recovery". This is what we read in the report of the Court of Auditors on the National Reform Program for the year 2020, presented today at the hearing to the Chamber and Senate Budget committees meeting in Montecitorio. "The most recent data - reads - do not exclude the hypothesis of a significant rebound and, however, it cannot be kept silent as the chances that the revision of the macroeconomic framework that will be proposed in the Nadef remain high of economy and finance, fundamental for the new drafting of the Budget Law) of September, will have to foresee a worsening adjustment of the main quantities, with a further reduction of the nominal GDP growth probably higher than a percentage point ".

Less Irpef, more VAT
"The obvious problems of Irpef functioning, in the face of a process of overall redesign of the system, would advise, rather, not to exclude among the options a possible remodulation of the existing VAT rates and also some hypotheses of reduction of the number of IRPEF rates (currently four), from which some administrative advantages could derive. On the specific point, the Pnr does not express any direction of revision ". This is what the Court of Auditors points out at the hearing in the budgetary committees of the House and Senate on the National Reform Plan and on the Report with which the government requests authorization from Parliament for a new budget shift.

"But this - underlines the accounting magistracy - does not reduce the need to make a clear choice regarding the role that the two main taxes of the tax system (Irpef and VAT) must play. In favor of a shift of the levy from the personal income tax to the VAT, it should be remembered that, in the European comparison in Italy, the weight of the personal income tax with respect to the GDP is among the highest and that of the VAT is among the lowest. It also means that a revision of the VAT could take place - by suitably modifying the rates - in the absence of unwanted redistributive effects ".

Clear strategic choices are
needed "The Pnr being examined by Parliament exposes a broad and complex picture of the reforms that the Government intends to launch in the coming years. A particularly complex network of measures within which the Government will have to make demanding choices also in the coming autumn. priorities. " This was stated by Ermanno Granelli, coordinating president of the Sections gathered during the audit of the Court of Auditors, during the hearing in the House and Senate Budget committees. "In the perspective of a progressive exit from the most acute phase of the health and economic crisis, the measures to be adopted will have to be identified on the basis of clear strategic choices, avoiding adaptive logics aimed at a simple recomposition of the conditions preceding the pandemic" he added. "The crisis is destined to lead to an acceleration of transformations in the production processes and in the use of the innovations that would probably have occurred over a longer time horizon: this requires the availability of network infrastructures that allow access in every part of the country to administrative and distance learning services ". A strong cultural and planning commitment in strategic sectors such as energy and transport will also be necessary to seize the new opportunities in the transition project to the green economy. "

Citizenship income was important
The introduction in 2019 of the citizenship income "today proves to be a fundamental tool for curbing the poverty of over 1.2 million families", writes the Court of Auditors in the summary of the hearing of the budget committees of the House and Senate, noting that the provision "to more than a year after approval, it confirms that it is able to make an appreciable contribution to tackling absolute poverty, especially in the South ". The Court suggests adjustments in" many points of fragility "of the measure, such as distribution based on number of households, the treatment of immigrants and the actual possibility of use of skilled to work.

Increased sp esa pubblic
"Looking at the level of payments from the balance sheet recorded at the beginning of July and comparing it with that of the same period last year, it is possible to have a first measurement of the impulse exerted by public expenditure. On the current front, disbursements increased by over 63 billion. However, the amount of the change recorded is different: transfers to social security institutions increase by 25.8 billion and 6.5 to those from local administrations ". of the Court of Auditors, during the hearing in the Chamber and Senate Budget committees.

"Tax refunds relating to IRAP, VAT and direct taxes are growing strongly (+18.6 billion more than in the same period of 2019). Current transfers to businesses (whose initial allocation grew by 11.2 billion) fell by 1.6 billion, "he added. "The impetus on the capital expenditure front is lower than expected: the higher allocations made in the first months of 2020 (+15.7 billion) have translated into an increase in payments of only 8.5 billion". He explains that "from this point of view, the impulse seems to be reduced both for contributions to businesses (+5.5 billion against appropriations increasing by 9.6 billion) and to government (central and local), which grew by 1 billion to +2 allocated. An important aspect in the public finance scenario is given by the trend of the debt / GDP ratio: in May the debt compared to the end of 2019 had grown to over 2,500 billion with an increase of about 98 billion ".