U.S. presidential election 100 days to the voting day

U.S. presidential election 100 days to the polling day Unusual development in Corona July 25, 17:23

It will be 100 days in 26 days until the election day of the US presidential election on November 3. Due to the spread of the new coronavirus infection, the number of votes by mail increased significantly, the aggregation work was confused, and it is expected that the next president will not be able to decide easily.

Towards the US presidential election, the Republican and Democratic parties will hold a national party convention in August and the vice presidential candidates will each give a nomination acceptance speech, but the spread of the new coronavirus is still continuing. As a result, we are planning to significantly reduce the scale and hold many events online only.

In addition, Republican President Trump's camp aiming for re-election and Democratic Party's former Vice President Biden's camp aiming to regain the government have been unable to hold a large-scale rally with supporters, and faced voters. Grassroots elections are also forced to refrain.

In addition, confusion over the voting and voting of this election is expected.

Health officials in the United States are recommending a revision of traditional voting methods that visit polling stations to prevent the spread of infection, and postal voting is expected to increase significantly across the United States.

However, in the United States, the voting method is determined for each state, the method of voting and voting is not standardized, and there are states that have the know-how of postal voting and states that do not have the know-how of mail voting. It has been pointed out that there are differences in the status of infrastructure development such as stations.

For this reason, it may not be possible to catch up with the counting work of a large number of ballots sent, or it may take a long time for the mail to arrive, so it is possible that many people will not be known by the voting day or the next day as in the past. It is said that there is.

Leading media and experts have also pointed out that either side may not accept the election results and may be brought in a lawsuit.

In particular, President Trump is said to be wary that the opposition party and the Democratic Party will have an advantage by increasing the voting rate by the postal vote, and strongly opposes the postal vote "it will lead to election fraud".

As a result, some media have also said that it would be unclear if they would accept the election results if President Trump were to stand down.

In the U.S. presidential election, it is customary for candidates who are surely defeated to admit their defeat and appeal to the people for harmony.However, in the case of a lawsuit over the election results, a few weeks after the vote is over. , It is said that there is a possibility that the next president will not be decided, and it looks like it will be an unusual presidential election.

National opinion poll Mr. Biden leads

According to U.S. political information site "Real Clear Politics," according to a national opinion poll on whether to support President Trump or former Vice President Biden, Biden averaged 49.6 %, President Trump is 40.9%, and Mr. Biden leads 8.7 points.

Furthermore, it is the state called the “state of interest” that has been antagonized by the support rates of both the Republican and Democratic parties that influence the outcome of the election.

In the US presidential election, most states have adopted the “winner total take-out method” in which candidates who get the most votes get all the electors, and the whereabouts of the states of interest greatly affect the outcome.

Among the six states that ABC TV lists as "states of note," Mr. Biden is leading Trump, with polls averaging 8.2 points in Michigan, 7.3 points in Pennsylvania, and 6.4 points in Wisconsin. We are leading by 7 points in Florida, 2.8 points in Arizona and 2 points in North Carolina.

President Trump fought with Democrat Clinton for the position of the president in the last 2016 election, which is a tough fight at the moment, because he has won a close battle in all six states.

Election situation of ABC TV Mr. Biden is dominant

US ABC Television has announced an election situation map that analyzes whether the Republican Party President Trump or the Democratic Party's former Vice President Biden has the upper hand, in line with 100 days until the election day. At the moment, Mr. Biden has the upper hand.

As a result, as of the 24th, the total number of electorates assigned to the states analyzed to be “certain” or “somewhat superior” to win is 279 people by Biden and 187 people by Trump, Mr. Biden is more than 270, the majority of the 538 electorates in the United States needed to win the presidential election.

In addition, the three states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in the Lastbelt-rusty industrial area that helped Trump's victory in the last 2016 presidential election were all "moderately superior" at the moment. It has become.

As a result, there are only four war-torn states where the Republican/Democratic approval rate is in conflict: Florida, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina.

Moreover, Mr. Trump remains “somewhat dominant” in Texas, which has been described as a “Republican Stronghold” by winning Republican candidates in the presidential elections for the past 40 years.

On the other hand, ABC TV said, "When it comes to electors, Mr. Biden has an advantage over President Trump, but it cannot be reversed. The situation may change drastically over the next three months." I am.

At least 1 to 2 weeks before results are revealed

One of the co-authors of a report by an expert group, Professor Edward Foley of Ohio State University, interviewed NHK, saying, "The new coronavirus is just Would make the difficult presidential election even harder to run.”

"The states that haven't really introduced mail voting so far are going through the biggest challenges. For example, Pennsylvania has only had about 5% of the votes cast by mail in previous elections. Can be as high as 50% or 70%."

"The most likely thing is that it will take at least a week or two for the results of the presidential election to be known," said Foley. He pointed out that it is unlikely that a large number will be found on the same day or the next day of the month's voting day.

On the other hand, Debra Cleaver, a representative of an NPO calling for young people to participate in politics, said, "Since the fact that we will start counting including voting by mail on the day of the vote, the result will not be known for about three weeks and the next president will There will be a period when we don't know.”

``If President Trump himself continues to question the election results over this period, and if President Trump is underpowered, a lot of propaganda will be sent from the White House to accuse the election fraud,'' he said. He pointed out that it is possible that President Trump will not accept the election results.