China News Service, July 24. According to a report by ChinaNet, there are about 100 days before the US general election on November 3. According to statistics from a recent poll by a political news website, Biden, who has locked up the Democratic presidential candidate, has 49.3% to 40.7% of votes nationwide, 8.6 percentage points ahead of US President Trump. Although this advantage is strong enough, historical experience shows that within 100 days, everything can change.
There are many uncertainties this year, and the possibility of turbulence is greater. The new crown virus pandemic has completely overturned the way candidates run for elections and voters vote. "USA Today" analysis pointed out that the presidential election debate is the primary factor affecting the final stage of the election.
Data map: US President Trump.
Can Biden resist attacks in the debate?
Analysis believes that this election is also a referendum on Trump's performance during his tenure. Although his core supporters are still loyal, the overall approval rate has fallen, and his credibility in handling the new crown virus crisis has also fallen sharply.
The Trump team focused on Biden's age. "Joe Biden is going downhill." Trump said in a TV ad. "Joe Biden does not have the strength, endurance and perseverance needed to lead this country."
But the national television debate will give Biden the best opportunity to show his strength and mental acumen. This is also a moment when any mistake will be magnified. Biden said that he is ready to participate in the three debates scheduled for September 29, October 15 and October 22 hosted by the Presidential Debate Committee.
Can Trump mobilize voters without holding a rally?
If the debate is a key test for Biden, then the inability to hold a rally may be a key test for Trump. In June, he held his first rally since March in Tulsa, Oklahoma, but the attendance rate was not high. At the same time, Trump's desire to accept the nomination at the full Republican National Convention has also been evacuated. Because of the severe epidemic, the Republican Party cancelled its plan to hold the National Convention in Jacksonville, Florida.
Holding large rallies in crowded stadiums was a hallmark of Trump's 2016 campaign, and it was a way of inspiring supporters and candidates. But during the new coronavirus pandemic, large gatherings have become unrealistic.
On July 15, local time, in Florida, USA, locals drove in a long queue waiting to be tested for the new crown virus. Image source: Visual China
Will the vaccine appear?
For failing to effectively respond to the new crown epidemic, Trump is facing severe criticism.
The development of a safe, effective, and widely available vaccine may change the situation and allow the United States to keep the new coronavirus threat under control. This news may boost the stock market and the mood of the American public.
Scientists are optimistic about the early results of several vaccines under development. But they warned that it is too optimistic that a vaccine can be produced by the end of this year.
The availability of vaccines is also crucial to the economy. Only when a vaccine is developed can people return to work, children return to school, and business returns to normal. Before the new crown epidemic drags the United States into recession, strong economic growth is Trump's biggest political asset.
How difficult is it to vote?
Voting this year will be more difficult than ever. One of the questions is what kind of epidemic prevention measures election officials will take against the epidemic, because it is dangerous to keep voters waiting in line for a long time and to allow polling staff to work in indoor venues for a long time. Although some states have tried to maintain the status quo in this year's primary elections, the percentage of votes cast by mail may soar.
Data map: On February 29, local time, US Democratic presidential candidate Biden won the fourth leg of the 2020 general election-the South Carolina primary. Photo by China News Agency reporter Chen Mengtong
The second issue is that a series of newly passed legislation, mainly in the states under the control of the Republican Party, has strengthened the requirements for registration and participation in voting. The Brennan Center for Justice at the New York University School of Law said that since 2010, 25 states have tightened their election laws. Supporters say the law has cracked down on voting fraud. Critics believe that the bill is designed to prevent African Americans, Hispanics, poor people and college students from voting, and these groups disproportionately vote for the Democratic Party.
These bills also face many legal challenges, and the new regulations may cause confusion and disputes on election day. Issues that arise in the election may affect the results of elections in key states or undermine public confidence in the legitimacy of candidates to win.
Is there any "October Surprise"?
Events beyond the control of the campaign and developments at home and abroad may shake the final weeks of the election. In 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton stated that she was “on the way to victory” until then FBI Director James Comey announced on October 28 that he might reinvestigate Hillary’s use of personal electronics during his tenure as Secretary of State. The mail server.
In the end, Trump won the Electoral College votes after winning three key states by a very narrow advantage.
In 2008, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers evolved into the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression in the United States. It became the main media coverage in the final weeks of the campaign and triggered critical reports on former President George W. Bush and Republican candidate McCain. In the end, Obama won the election in November.
Therefore, many things can happen in 100 days.