At the moment when the US-Iran confrontation spirals upward
Whether the Iran nuclear agreement can last until ten years is a huge question mark.
On July 14, 2015, the six countries (the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia, China, and Germany) on the Iranian nuclear issue reached a historic and comprehensive agreement with Iran to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue. Representatives of all parties took a group photo at the United Nations Center in Vienna, Austria. Photo/Xinhua
Will there be "the next five years" for the fifth anniversary of the Iran nuclear agreement?
Text/Wingsenberg
Published in the 957th issue of China News Weekly on July 7, 2020
July 14th marks the 5th anniversary of the final agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue (also known as the "Joint Comprehensive Action Plan", or JCPOA). However, this important agreement to safeguard the international nuclear non-proliferation system has long been in turmoil.
On July 14, 2015, after more than ten years of arduous negotiations, Iran formally signed the JCPOA with China, the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany in Geneva. After the signing of the agreement, the International Atomic Energy Agency has repeatedly verified that Iran has fulfilled the relevant obligations stipulated in the agreement, and the international community’s sanctions against Iran have been lifted one after another. However, in May 2018, the Trump administration unilaterally decided to withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement after the International Atomic Energy Agency repeatedly confirmed that Iran had fulfilled the agreement, and at the same time resumed unilateral economic and military sanctions on Iran.
On May 8, 2019, Iranian President Rouhani announced that Iran will suspend the fulfillment of certain provisions of the JCPOA and will no longer sell heavy water and enriched uranium. This means that Iran has begun to take substantial actions to fight back against the United States. In the next few months, Iran suspended the implementation of the relevant terms of the agreement three more times. On January 3, 2020, the United States assassinated Soleimani, the commander of the "Quds Brigade" of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Baghdad. In retaliation, the Iranian government announced the fifth phase of reduction in compliance measures on January 5. So far, Iran has completely stopped fulfilling the key terms of the agreement.
It can be said that the struggle between the United States and Iran surrounding the JCPOA has been the focus of the game between the United States and Iran in the past 40 years. Iran’s nuclear program originated in the reign of the king in the 1960s, when it received technical support from the United States. After the victory of the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979, Iran changed from an ally of the United States to the largest opponent of the United States in the Middle East. The Iranian nuclear issue has gradually become the focus of arms control and nuclear non-proliferation in the Middle East. The signing of JCPOA not only eases the conflict between the United States and Iran, it is also one of the cornerstones of the nuclear non-proliferation mechanism in the Middle East.
Being tough on Iran is one of the greatest political correctness in the United States, and the religious ruling class in Iran, which has been "anti-American" for 40 years, can hardly change its course. This makes it very difficult to reach a compromise between the United States and Iran. After the Trump administration took office, it directly reversed the predecessor’s policy toward Iran. This not only made the agreement fate worrying, but also aroused anti-American sentiment in Iran, making the moderates led by Rouhani the target of public attacks. On February 22, 2020, Iran held parliamentary elections. The hardliners regained parliamentary dominance after the Iranian Constitution Guardianship Committee cancelled 90% of the reform candidates’ qualifications. Under such circumstances, hardliners are likely to win the 2021 presidential election, and US-Iran relations are likely to regress to the era of "Bush-Nejad". It is difficult for the JCPOA to avoid the fate of the final break.
In October of this year, the Iranian nuclear agreement will usher in another critical time point-according to the agreement, the Security Council will then lift the international arms embargo against Iran. To prevent the Security Council from passing relevant resolutions, the United States is constantly putting pressure on its European allies. The American Arms Control Association warned on March 5 that if all the international sanctions against Iran are restored, it will mean that the Iran nuclear agreement will be completely bankrupt and may trigger a new round of nuclear crisis in the region. At a time when the confrontation between the United States and Iran is spiraling, whether the Iran nuclear agreement can last until the ten-year period will be a huge question mark.
China News Weekly, Issue 27, 2020
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