China News Service, July 22 (Li Hongyu, Liu Danyi) Wearing masks when going out, keeping a distance when meeting, and working remotely online... More than half of 2020 has passed. Under the new crown pneumonia epidemic, these have gradually become the new normal in people's lives. Although many countries around the world are relaxing restrictions, the continuously rising epidemic curve cannot be optimistic.
Chinanews.com invited a number of experts on international issues to interpret the development trend of the global epidemic. Experts generally say that the development of the epidemic in various countries around the world is at different stages. At present, in some areas with more severe epidemics such as the United States, no turning point has been seen. The COVID-19 pandemic has declined significantly globally, and I am afraid it will be a long-term thing. This has further strengthened the impact on the global political structure, especially the disputes among major powers, which has put severe pressure on society and politics and a huge impact on the economy. The epidemic has made the evolution of the international situation more complicated, and there are more uncertainties in the game of international relations.
As of 14:34 on July 22, Beijing time, there have been more than 14.95 million confirmed cases of new crowns worldwide. (The picture is taken from the Johns Hopkins University real-time data website)
Could the epidemic last until 2021?
Haven't seen the "light at the end of the tunnel"
According to real-time statistics from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 14:34 on the 22nd, Beijing time, there were more than 14.95 million confirmed cases of new crowns worldwide, and a total of more than 616,000 deaths. A total of more than 1 million cases have been diagnosed in 3 countries around the world, namely the United States, Brazil and India.
Shi Yinhong, a professor at the School of International Relations of Renmin University of China and Counselor of the State Council, said that after the slowdown in April, the epidemic situation in many countries rebounded strongly.
Since May, the states of the United States have been unblocked one after another. Accompanying the rapid economic restart is the continued deterioration of the epidemic situation. At present, there are more than 3.9 million confirmed cases in the United States, and Florida has become the new “epicenter” of the US epidemic; Brazil, also located in the American continent, has more than 80,000 deaths from the new crown virus. São Paulo is currently the most infected region in the world.
Data map: The shelter hospital on the outskirts of Sao Paulo, Brazil's largest city.
On the other side of the ocean, the accelerated development of the African epidemic is equally worrying. In many African countries, the number of cases has increased rapidly in the past week, and the number of deaths in South Africa has exceeded 5,000.
“From a global perspective, the epidemic is still spreading.” Pang Zhongying, a distinguished professor of Ocean University of China and Dean of the Institute of Ocean Development, believes that the epidemic has not only involved the fields of biological and natural sciences such as infectious diseases, but also The field of social sciences related to governance has become a multidisciplinary issue. For example, from the perspective of national epidemic response, the prevention and control of the epidemic has a great relationship with the governance of each country.
Pang Zhongying said that people must make long-term preparations, but the first thing to deal with is the coming autumn and winter. At present, a more common view is that the new crown pneumonia epidemic may continue until 2021, which is much pessimistic than the original prediction of the WHO and many governments. There may still be a long way to go to fight the epidemic. "The light at the end of the tunnel has not been seen yet."
Yan Jin, executive director of the Center for European Studies at Renmin University of China, pointed out that from the current point of view, the overall judgment is that at least by the end of 2020, epidemic prevention and epidemic management remain the top tasks of all countries in the world.
The turning point of the global epidemic has not yet arrived?
The November election is a key node in U.S. epidemic prevention
The crowds in British bars, tourists on Spanish beaches, and Japanese sumo tournament spectators applauded and cheered... After undergoing strict isolation measures, many countries relaxed restrictions and gradually unblocked them. But experts said that unblocking does not mean that the turning point of the global epidemic has arrived.
Yan Jin said that as far as the European epidemic is concerned, the most serious time has passed, and the turning point has actually appeared. The overall number of new and death cases is on a downward trend. However, from a global perspective, countries with severe epidemics such as the United States, India, Brazil, South Africa and other countries cannot say that the epidemic has reached an inflection point, but it has moved towards a major relief.
Data map: Brighton, UK, British photographer JJ Waller took more than 100 groups of portraits of individuals and families behind windows, doors and balcony glass from March 19 to May 21, 2020.
Pang Zhongying also pointed out that the current global epidemic situation is very complicated, and the situation in different countries is different. It is difficult to say where the turning point of the epidemic is. "Almost all populous countries are facing the challenge of the new crown epidemic. If these countries basically achieve 3Cs in epidemic prevention and control, that is, contain (contain), control (control) and cure (treatment), then the global epidemic will be controllable as a whole Up."
Pang Zhongying said that there are now many countries with a second wave of epidemics. The inflection point means that after the epidemic curve reaches a certain height, it starts to go down, but as far as the current situation is concerned, it is difficult to say what the epidemic will do next.
Wearing a mask is a simple and effective scientific epidemic prevention measure, but it has gone through a long and tortuous road in the United States. Although experts in the field of public health in the United States have repeatedly called for "must wear masks in public places," US President Trump has repeatedly refused to wear masks. It was not until July 11 that he put on masks for the first time in public. In areas where the "mask order" has been implemented, many Americans still firmly oppose wearing masks.
Pang Zhongying said that the situation in the United States is quite special. 2020 is a general election year. If Trump is re-elected, he may take further measures, otherwise he will have to wait for the next government to clean up the situation. Rather than talking about the turning point of the epidemic, it is better to say that there are critical time points in the US fight against the epidemic. "The changes in its political situation may affect future anti-epidemic policies. For the United States, a key time point for the fight against the epidemic should be November this year."
Will the "antidote" of the epidemic come out before the end of the year?
China, Europe and the United States announce the development of new crown vaccine
In order to return to normal life, finding the "antidote" to control the epidemic is crucial. As there is currently no specific medicine for the treatment of new coronary pneumonia in the world, vaccine research and development is critical to fighting the epidemic.
Michael Ryan, head of WHO's health emergency project, recently revealed that there are currently 23 new coronary pneumonia vaccine candidates in the clinical development stage.
On July 20, the world's three major research teams announced the latest developments in their new crown vaccine research and development. The Oxford University team in the United Kingdom published a paper in the medical journal The Lancet, saying that the results of the Phase 1/2 clinical trial of the new crown vaccine showed that the vaccine has no early safety hazards and causes a strong immune response in the immune system.
Data map: Researchers are demonstrating the experimental process of the new coronavirus mRNA vaccine development. Photo by Tang Yanjun
The Chinese research team also published a paper in The Lancet, saying that the team carried out a phase 2 clinical trial of the new crown vaccine, and the results showed that the vaccine is safe and can induce an immune response in the human body.
American Pfizer and its partner German biotechnology company BioNTech announced on the same day that its Phase 1/2 new crown vaccine research in Germany has made initial positive progress and no serious adverse reactions have occurred.
Yan Jin said that overall, vaccine development in China, the European Union and the United States has attracted more attention. China is in the first echelon, is very competitive, and is likely to take the lead in producing vaccines. One of the important tasks of Germany, which is currently the rotating presidency of the European Union, is to integrate European forces to jointly respond to the epidemic, including strengthening cooperation in vaccine research and development. In terms of anti-epidemic drug research and development, Europe has been leading the world, so it is very likely that vaccines will be developed soon.
The WHO has consistently called for a fair distribution of vaccines. WHO Director-General Tan Desai said before that by the end of 2020, there may be candidate vaccines that show effectiveness against the new coronavirus, but the real question is whether vaccine production capacity can keep up with the huge global demand by 2021.
International games under the epidemic
Will the new crown pandemic change the global order?
The continuous spread of the new crown epidemic globally has not only plunged many countries into a health crisis, but every contact and run-in between countries has a profound impact on the global political landscape.
Data map: On July 4, local time, a resident wearing a mask walked across the waterfront across Manhattan, New York. Photo by China News Agency reporter Liao Pan
Speaking of the impact of the epidemic, Shi Yinhong said that so far, the most significant situation in the global political structure is that the national power of the United States has been severely hit. This is not only due to the new crown pneumonia itself, but also the extremely serious political division and local riots caused by the epidemic.
He added that since the outbreak of the epidemic, Sino-US relations have been in a "free-fall" style of full-scale rivalry, whether in strategic areas, high-tech, trade, political, and diplomatic fields. Yan Jin also pointed out that on the one hand, the epidemic has provided China with more opportunities to assume responsibility, but at the same time it has also complicated relations between major powers, especially Sino-US relations.
Former U.S. Secretary of State Kissinger published an article in the Wall Street Journal in April entitled "The New Coronavirus Pandemic Will Forever Change the World Order" stating that the world order will "forever change" after the new crown epidemic, and countries are facing history. Sexual challenge: building the future while responding to the crisis. However, Pang Zhongying said that the epidemic is still developing and it is too early to talk about how it will affect the global political landscape. The epidemic has given countries an opportunity to rethink. For a while, people thought that they might have to "do their own things", but now it seems that facing the new crown virus pandemic, there is no better way other than global cooperation.
At a critical moment when the world should unite to fight the epidemic, the US government has turned away from the outside world and retired arbitrarily. Yan Jin pointed out: "Under the impact of the epidemic, the United States withdrew from the World Health Organization, making its role as a global leader further eclipsed."
Data map: On July 17, local time, in Brussels, Belgium, politicians from various countries attending the face-to-face summit of the European Union "bumped" and greeted each other. The picture shows German Chancellor Merkel (left) and European Council President Michel (right) "bumping" greetings.
In Europe, Yan Jin analyzed that the epidemic has exposed the lack of unity and cohesion within the EU. Especially when the epidemic in Italy was the worst, it appealed to EU countries for help, but no country reached out to help. Later, under the leadership of the European Commission, the positions of European countries were coordinated, and cooperation within the European Union to jointly respond to the epidemic was strengthened.
"In addition, the epidemic has also strengthened the cooperation between China and Europe." Yan Jin further said, "Economic and trade cooperation has always been the top priority of China-EU relations... China and Europe have a consensus on free trade and other aspects." Under the circumstances, both China and the EU are facing the problem of economic recovery, which makes China-EU economic and trade cooperation more important."
The contradictions between Europe and the United States, a pair of "old allies" who have already shown suspicions on other issues, seem to have become more profound under the epidemic. For example, the United States has long included EU countries as a target area for which entry is prohibited, and German Chancellor Merkel later rejected Trump's invitation to go to the United States to participate in the G7 summit.
Yan Jin pointed out that, on the whole, the new crown epidemic has made the international situation full of uncertainty and complexity, but at the same time, it has also posed greater and more severe challenges to effectively respond to and seize opportunities. (Finish)