As the outbreak of the new Corona virus continues to spread, there will be long-term consequences that will touch all sectors, and this is a glimpse into the future of the air transport sector.

In an article published by the American "Bloomberg" website, author David Fekling said that he planned to spend a vacation with his wife, but he had a miserable experience.

He explained that within hours of the announcement of the opening of the Queensland border, the resumption of tickets for a few flights heading north, and with the availability of very few seats, companies resorted to adopting the revenue management strategy, which depends on monitoring demand every minute for their seats , And raise the prices accordingly, which contributed to the ticket price increase significantly.

The writer indicated that he spent more than 40% of the amount he was supposed to pay, because he was unable to book early, and this is a glimpse of what awaits travelers as the world emerges from the "Covid-19" hibernation over the next two years.

Global air traffic is expected to drop by at least half in 2020, and most airlines believe that their growth will not return to pre-pandemic levels until 2023, at the very least, and until then, the industry will experience a period of recession, unlike What is expected.

Financial consequences

The financial consequences for large airlines and their employees will be painful, and passengers will have to bear the burden of these costs, as will the long-term recovery process will change many aspects of flights that will be felt by passengers.

The writer noted that the decrease in business flights is the biggest threat to this industry, as premium travelers represent about 5% of transportation and 30% of airline revenue, which will drive airlines to sell economic tickets at discounted prices.

But it is possible that the limited corporate budgets and boom in video conferencing during the closing period have both eliminated a large portion of the industry's revenue.

About 60% of airline executives surveyed by the PCD Travel survey in April expect business travel to be low, even after a pandemic.

Of all the economy and first class tickets purchased by companies, said Ben Baldanza, the former chief executive of Spirit Airlines, 10 to 15 percent of them will never return.

Baldanza added, "Video calls were present before the Covid-19 pandemic, but companies now have experience in using and trust in them."

Typically, recessions lead to a three-year drop in average flight rates, and the current recession in the world is likely to be unique in terms of severity, severity, and persistence.

According to Baldansa, long-term freight operations are likely to continue to suffer even five years from now, and the early days of a recovery period may bring in many profitable deals, as airlines will try to attract more passengers, though, the industry will have to It settles a mountain of debt that falls on its shoulders.

The financial consequences of large airlines and their employees will be painful and passengers will have to bear the burden of these costs (Getty Images)

There will be no boom

Companies with net debts greater than four or five times the amount of pre-interest profits, taxes, depreciation and amortization are at risk of being unable to pay their debts.

On the other hand, some transport companies will be able to shoulder the burden of the crisis better than others, and companies that have an important position in the large domestic markets, which survived the "Covid-19 أزمة" crisis, such as Australia, Japan and China, should record better performance, as well Asian regional airlines and low-cost airlines in the European Union.

The damage to airlines based in big domestic markets, such as the United States, India, Brazil, and Russia, is much greater, not to mention, that it will find it more difficult to weather the crisis.

The worst affected are likely to be a handful of airlines that have spent the past two decades looking to connect the world as an international carrier.

The writer stated that it would be impossible for the state to evade playing an important role in this sector during the next decade, and governments have already provided about 123 billion dollars in aid, which is equivalent to the value of industry profits during the past four years.

For its part, Bloomberg News reported last week that Lufthansa would likely pay its debts instead of buying new aircraft over the next few years.

While British Airways, part of the Integrated International Airlines group, will withdraw its fleet of 747 aircraft, and many airlines will need continued support from the country, in addition to the rescue operations that have already taken place.

Increased damage to airlines based in large domestic markets, such as the United States and India (Bexabe)

Extra charge

Either way, the future of these companies appears murky, transport companies that do not receive government support will go bankrupt, and passengers will go through unpleasant experiences. April, it canceled it, so airlines cannot earn money unless they fill 80% of the plane's seats.

The additional revenue in some services, such as luggage fees, additional foot space, meals on board, and car and hotel rental reservations, has increased fivefold over the past decade to $ 109.5 billion last year.

This represents more than 12% of the airline’s total revenue, and in some low-cost airlines up to a third of the total, and the post-epidemic period will provide transport companies with a reason to stop distributing free food and drink that can carry the infection, and will become expensive in the future, Both baggage fees will increase.

In fact, during the post-epidemic period, tickets may only look cheap cheaply, and passengers are willing to overlook all barriers for cheaper rates.

But the carriers that will survive this crisis will gain more strength thanks to the market collapse or the acquisition of its competitors, which makes them in a good position to impose the high prices that they will need to pay in debt.