'West, Three, Women' They are leaving. It is an acronym for'Seoul·30s·Women'. These are the regions, ages, and gender groups that are considered the top political supporters of President Moon Jae-in. In the recent polls of the president's support, the public sentiment of Seo Sam-nyeo is prominent.

The poll is'trend'. What we need to look at in polls is not a number at a specific point in time, but rather a continuous stream over a period of time.

What'decisive moment' influenced the approval rating of the president? In the friendly [Pick Q&A], let's analyze what trends, what trends,'West, Three, and Women' have left and are still leaving.

Q. Is President Moon Jae-in known to have higher approval ratings than any other president in the past?

A. It should be noted that the so-called'dead cross' trend, in which negative evaluations increase due to the crossing of'positive' and'negative' in the presidential approval rating.

This week's survey was conducted by Real Meter this week (Week 3 of July) on'President's National Performance Evaluation'. The positive rating was 44.1%, down 4.6 percentage points from last week.

According to the Real Meter survey, it was the lowest in 9 months since 41.4% in the second week of October last year. It was at the time when the controversy over the'homeland situation' was over.

This week's negative rating was 5.2 percentage points higher than last week's 51.7%.

Negative evaluation was 7.6% higher than positive evaluation, which is outside the margin of error. Statistically, it is a'red fire' in a trend that can be said to have a significantly higher negative rating.


Q. Is the reason why the approval rate of the president is not good is'West, Three, Women'?

A. There are'significant' figures to look at.

Compared to last week, women's positive evaluation decline (-7.9%p) was greater than men (-1.3%p). The increase in negative evaluation was higher in females (9.5%p) than in males (0.9%).

Especially in the 30s, the positive rating fell 13.9 percentage points from last week. The negative rating increase was also highest in the 30s at 16.1 percentage points.

By region, support fell sharply in Gangwon (-20.7%p), Jeju (-14.4%p), and Seoul (-6.0%p). In particular, in the case of Seoul, it lost 13.4% points compared to a month ago, and it was found that the most support was lost during the same period.

Q. Why are'West, Three, and Women' leaving?

A. The decisive reason is that it is analyzed as'the mayor of Park Won-soon. According to a daily survey,'dead cross' takes place on the 9th of Mayor Park Won-soon's disappearance and suspicion of sexual assault. (Of course, the news of the disappearance was reported around 6:00 p.m. after the daily investigation time.)

There have been signs since then. From the time when it was known that Moon was in harmony with his mother, former governor Ahn Hee-jung, who was imprisoned for alleged sexual assault, the'flow' of rising negative evaluations was wriggling.

On the 10th, after the death of former Mayor Park Won-soon and the announcement of the 22nd real estate policy, the situation of'reverse evaluation> positive evaluation' was clearly reversed.

On the 13th, after the press conference of former Mayor Park Won-soon, the victims of sexual harassment, the negative rating goes up to 50%. Controversy also persisted in the ruling ruling party about the second assault on the term'appealer'.
Analysts say, "Passports have largely prioritized the atmosphere of the mayor Park's memorial service, and the sexual harassment problem was virtually silent and fanned out of the main support group of women and thirties." Even inside the Democratic Party, there is a saying that "It would be strange not to fall for overlapping evil materials."

As the president is in a position to take full responsibility for the overall administration of the government, bad news such as failure of the government's real estate measures or suspicion of sexual harassment by former ruling party leader Park Won-soon are reflected in the approval rating of the president.

Q. Isn't it just a real-meter survey?

A. It should be noted that both Realmeter and Gallup Korea, which are conducting weekly presidential approval surveys, show similar trends.

Korea Gallup In the recent 20 weeks, the trend of evaluating the performance of the president has not shown'dead cross', but overall, the positive evaluation is missing and the negative evaluation is increasing.

In a survey conducted by Gallup Korea on the 14th and 16th, President Moon's approval rating was 46%, slightly less than last week. With the '7 consecutive weeks of falling trend', the tension between the Blue House and the passport is evident.

According to the Korea Gallup, "If you look at the positive evaluation of the president's job, the support rate is relatively lower in women (50%→44%) and in their 20s (46%→36%) than men (45%→47%)."

Cross-analysis of'Gender X age group' shows that women in their 20s (57%→42%, -15%p) and women in their 30s (63→56%, -7%p) have a lower percentage of support than men in the same age group. Lost


The following is an overview of each survey cited in the article.
1.Real Meter, a survey of 1,510 voters nationwide on July 13-15 on the request of TBS, sample error 95% confidence level ±2.5% points, overall response rate 4.7%.
2. Korea Gallup, July 14~16 Survey of 1,001 people over the age of 18 over the country, sample error 95%, ±3.1% points at the confidence level, overall response rate 14.2%.
For more information, please refer to the Real Meter, Korea Gallup, Central Election Survey Deliberation Committee website.

'News Pick'.