Overseas Network July 16th, 14th, the United Kingdom made a self-proclaimed "not easy decision": disable Huawei 5G. Half a year ago, the United Kingdom also endorsed Huawei with "no security risks", suggesting that it would give Huawei a "green light" for 5G, but it quickly "turned its face" after entering July, and the rebellious attitude made public opinion uproar. Some analysts said that behind this 180-degree shift, more political considerations than commercial factors, but from the two time points given, "there are great mysteries", it seems that there is room for maneuver.

Blockade was criticized

  On the 14th local time, the British government decided to ban the country's mobile operators from buying Huawei 5G equipment from 2021, and to exclude Huawei from the UK's 5G equipment supply by 2027. British Minister of Culture Dawden admitted that the move would delay the construction of 5G in the UK for a year, but insisted that "it is about maintaining the long-term security of the British telecommunications network."

  "Disappointing", "Car accident scene", "Self-harming behavior"...The British media and politicians use these words to describe the decision to ban Huawei. Vodafone and BT, the two major telecommunications operators in the UK, warned that removing installed Huawei equipment is expected to cost "billions of pounds" and delay the launch of 5G in the UK. "Financial Times" said that even if the British government does not allow Huawei to retain a "long-term role" in 5G construction, it should not be "quickly deleted." The price of disabling Huawei is that the UK loses its global leading position in 5G development.

  The British "Times" believes that it is "impossible" to remove all Huawei technologies from the British mobile network, because the cost is huge, and it is not realistic for Nokia and Ericsson to replace Huawei's network equipment. CNN said that disabling Huawei’s new equipment and replacing its existing technology will cause the UK’s 5G network construction to be delayed for two to three years, which also means that British consumers and businesses will have to wait longer, Spend more money to get 5G services.

  Ang Ula, a member of the British Labor Party and a spokesman for the industry policy of the shadow cabinet, bluntly stated that Huawei’s decision was “incredibly negligent”, describing the impact on the development of the British digital economy as “like a car accident scene”. During the discussion in the House of Commons, she asked the government to guarantee that the cost of removing Huawei’s 5G equipment would not be borne by consumers.

  The British media also quoted experts as saying that after experiencing the epidemic crisis, excessively radical policy changes may hinder the UK's economic recovery. The British government is anxious to abandon telecommunications equipment produced by Huawei, which may hinder the process of resuming production in the UK. The British National Institute of Economics and Social Analysis said that if the ban on Huawei leads to a trade conflict, it will reduce the UK's gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.75%.

Get rid of difficulty

  How important is Huawei to the UK market? A set of British official data can explain the problem: 44% of high-speed fiber access in the UK, 35% of 4G share, and 17% of the communication core are provided by Huawei. The cooperation between the British government and Huawei can be traced back to 20 years ago. In 2001, Huawei opened its first office in the United Kingdom. At first, it upgraded the copper cable broadband network for British Telecom, and then entered the majority of British Telecom’s industrial chain. Participate in the construction of communication infrastructure. In recent years, Huawei has become the most important telecommunications partner in the UK.

  Some analysts believe that to get rid of Huawei equipment, you need to turn to other suppliers, purchase new equipment as soon as possible, and complete the assembly successfully, but this is a lengthy procurement negotiation, which may take one to two years to complete. It takes time to plan to replace the original equipment and lines.

  The US "Wall Street Journal" observed that the 7-year time limit provided by the United Kingdom for this also means "it is difficult to completely get rid of Huawei." The British government listened to the recommendations of telecommunications executives: it will take at least 5 years, or even 7 years before recovery Abandoning Huawei’s significant disruption to the UK’s emerging network construction.

  "Issuing a ban on Huawei is a national self-harm." Former British MP George Galloway said in a commentary on "Russia Today" that the UK's economy contracted severely in the last quarter, and today's decision is no different from the world's second. Large economies initiate economic confrontation. Martin Jacques, a senior researcher in the Department of Political and International Studies at the University of Cambridge in the United Kingdom, also criticized the decision on social media, arguing that the United Kingdom should not treat China as an enemy. This period will be known in the history of "national suicide".

Who is doing things

  "There is a heavy shadow behind the British decision-the United States," Russian TV Today said. The US CNBC pointed out that the US government has been pressing the "Five Eyes Alliance" countries to eliminate Huawei, and even threatened to stop the exchange of sensitive information against allies that violated the US requirements. The United States really did not "avoid suspicion." Just after Britain announced its decision on the 14th, the "secret" of the US Secretary of State came and welcomed the decision. US President Trump also admitted in his speech on the same day that he used the pretext of dealing with business to "personally persuade" that many countries, including the United Kingdom, banned Huawei.

  In fact, as early as January of this year, the British government had stated that it allowed Huawei to "limitedly" participate in 5G construction, becoming the only country in the "Five Eyes Alliance" that allowed Huawei to participate in the construction of 5G networks. However, after the outbreak of the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic, anti-China sentiment in the British political community rebounded, and more Conservative MPs began to pressure Johnson on the Huawei issue. "Financial Times" analysis said that in half a year, the British attitude towards Huawei has changed 180 degrees, mainly due to the "double pressure" of domestic Conservative Party politicians and the US government.

  Regarding the sudden "face change" of the United Kingdom, Zhang Monan, chief researcher of the China International Economic Exchange Center, told Overseas Network that the political considerations for the ban on Huawei are greater than the security considerations: first, the Johnson government is under pressure from the domestic Conservative Party to take action against Huawei; second, like the European Union, The United Kingdom is also increasingly emphasizing information technology security, hoping to exclude Huawei from highlighting its technological independence and strengthening economic and technological sovereignty.

  In addition, it is worth mentioning that the two cut-off times set by the British government are "great." Zhang Monan said that the choice of the United Kingdom at the time point is more like leaving a time window, a process where you can come and go to negotiate, especially in the United States election. In fact, regardless of the outcome of the US election, it will become a new stage of Washington's China policy. The United Kingdom has six months to wait and see. After the US elections, its policy toward China will become clearer and clearer. It will be cheaper for the United Kingdom to start its actions when the time comes. In fact, no matter whether it is the United States or the United Kingdom, disabling Huawei is not a so-called threat to national security, but it is worried that once the core technology is mastered by China, they will lose their leading edge in controlling the world, so they will attack, block, contain, and even at any cost. Destroy China's 5G technology.

  Bai Ming, a researcher at the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, also told Overseas Network that 2027 is a longer period of time. Any infrastructure has a normal period of wear and tear. It does not rule out the use of the time difference in the UK and wait for the equipment to reach the end of its service life. After the whole replacement. In addition, in these 7 years, with the iteration of technology, 6G or more advanced solutions may be introduced. It is not ruled out that some British people wish to smoothly transition to the latest technology by then, and it is natural to disable Huawei 5G equipment. Realized. (Overseas Network Zhang Qi)