China News Service, July 16 (Xinhua) According to the European Union, citing the report of the European Union, researchers at the University of Washington Institute of Health Indicators and Evaluation pointed out that at present, the global preparation for the shock of the rapid decline in birth rate is insufficient. As the social birth rate continues to fall, the population of almost every country will shrink to varying degrees. Among them, the population of 23 countries such as Italy, Spain and Japan may be halved by the end of the 21st century.
According to reports, researchers say that if the birth rate drops below 2.1, the population size will start to shrink. In 1950, women had an average of 4.7 children in their lifetime; in 2017, the fertility rate was almost halved, and women had an average of 2.4 children. Research reports published by researchers in the medical journal "The Lancet" show that the fertility rate is expected to fall to around 1.7 by 2100.
The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) pointed out that according to the researchers' prediction, the population of the earth will climb to the highest peak of 9.7 billion around 2064, and then will decrease to 8.8 billion at the end of the 21st century.
Christopher Murray, director of the Institute of Health Indicators and Evaluation at the University of Washington, said that this is quite a big thing. The population in most parts of the world is shrinking naturally and will "have to reorganize society."
The researchers emphasize that as the fertility rate continues to decline, some countries will bear the brunt. The population of Japan is expected to fall from the highest point of 2017 to 138 million to less than 53 million at the end of the 21st century; Italy may experience the same decline in population. During the same period, the population is expected to decrease from 61 million to 28 million; the world includes Spain, The population of 23 countries including Portugal, Thailand and South Korea is expected to be reduced by more than half.
In addition, the British population is expected to reach a peak of 75 million in 2063, or to 71 million by 2100. (Zhao Xi)