Chinanews.com client Beijing, July 15 (Xinhua) Since the floods in June, the heavy rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River has entered a "wheel war". In just one and a half months, seven rounds of heavy rainfall came in turn.
Seeing that the critical period of flood control for "Seven Downs and Eight Ups" is coming, on the 15th, the China Meteorological Administration held a press conference and released the latest research and judgment of the rain and flood conditions across the country.
The city of Liujiang in Guangxi exceeded the warning level 4 times during the year as a lone king
Staged the "wheel war", rainstorms occurred in 60% of counties and cities in the south
Since June, there have been 7 large-scale heavy rainfalls in the southern region, and 64% of counties (cities) have experienced heavy rains.
Wang Zhihua, deputy director of the Emergency Disaster Mitigation and Public Service Department of the China Meteorological Administration, said that the extreme rainfall in the southern region is very prominent, with 10 counties (cities) breaking through historical extremes and 52 counties (cities) breaking through historical extremes of the month .
"This extreme nature is mainly manifested in the process of heavy rain, showing the characteristics of long duration, large accumulated rainfall and strong rain intensity." Song Lianchun, director of the National Climate Center, said. Since June 1st, precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin has exceeded historical extremes. The precipitation in Hubei and Chongqing also broke through historical extremes.
Since June 2, the southern heavy rain belt has continued, and the Central Meteorological Observatory has issued rainstorm warnings for 41 consecutive days, the longest time since the establishment of the meteorological disaster warning information release system in 2007.
The picture shows the firefighters rescue the people trapped in the flood disaster in Nanping. Fire Fighting
What happened this year? The latest judgment is here
According to Wang Zhihua, since June, the rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin has been 410.4 millimeters, which is 48.3% more than that in the same period of the previous year, and the most in the same period since 1961. The rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is 498.5 millimeters, which is 64.3% more than that in the same period of the previous year, and the highest in the same period in history since 1961.
In the face of such heavy rainfall, many people are more concerned. How does the flood this year compare with previous years?
Overall, the rainstorms in southern my country in 2020 have a wide range of impact, long duration, extreme extremes, and a high degree of local heavy rainfall overlap.
Song Lianchun analyzed that from the perspective of the duration, intensity and impact of the rainstorm, the persistent rainstorm disaster in the Yangtze River Basin this year is weaker than in 1998. Among them, the causes of the disasters are similar (the impact of the "second-degree rain" in 1998), that is, the sub-high rises north and then falls south and maintains, but this year's impact is not as long as in 1998.
In 1998, the rainfall in the main rain belt of the Yangtze River Basin exceeded 700 mm, and so far this year it is 600 mm. In terms of precipitation range, 1998 was a heavy rainstorm in the whole river basin. This year's heavy rainfall was mainly concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and areas along the river, which was relatively smaller than in 1998.
On the afternoon of July 12th, the aerial photography was located on the east bank of Poyang Lake in Zhuhu Lake, Poyang County, Jiangxi. On the one side is the clear lake in Zhuyang Lake of Poyang Lake, and on the other side is the outer lake of Poyang Lake that has become muddy due to heavy rain. Separate landscapes. China News Agency reporter Liu Zhankun
Poyang Lake with severe flood conditions is still growing
With several rounds of "blessings" of strong rainfall, the area of Poyang Lake has continued to increase.
Yang Jun, director of the National Satellite Meteorological Center, said that since June 29, northern Jiangxi and Jiangxi provinces have been hit by continuous heavy rains and serious floods. As of July 14, at 8:00, the average precipitation in northern Jiangxi was 399.3 millimeters, which was more than 3 times. The first in the same period. The area of the main body of Poyang Lake and the surrounding waters increased rapidly due to the continuous influence of continuous heavy precipitation and upstream water.
The latest satellite remote sensing monitoring shows that at 0600 on July 14, the main body of Poyang Lake and the surrounding water area reached 4,403 square kilometers, the largest in the past 10 years.
Compared with July 2 and 8, the area expanded by 549 square kilometers and 197 square kilometers respectively, 2196 square kilometers more than May 27, which is 2.5% larger than the historical average (3510 square kilometers). The five major branches flowed into the Hukou wetland, and the dike collapse of the Changjiang, Tongjin, and Qianqiu districts in Poyang County led to the flooding of farmland and villages.
On July 12, the water level of the Nanjing section of the Yangtze River was continuously photographed and the water level continued to rise. On the same day, the information released by the Nanjing Water Affairs Bureau showed that at 15:00 on July 12, the highest water level of the Yangtze River Nanjing Station reached 10.02 meters, exceeding the warning level of 1.32 meters, ranking third in history, second only to 1954 (10.22 meters) in 1998 ( 10.14 meters). China News Agency reporter Tuobo
The warning has been issued for 41 days, when can the rain stop?
At present, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are in the period of the strongest rainfall. What is the weather situation in this area in the future? Will there be heavy rainfall?
Wang Jianjie, director of the Central Meteorological Observatory, analyzed that from the 17th to the 20th, there will be a new round of strong rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin. The strongest period will mainly occur from the 18th to the 19th, causing process precipitation from west to east in the Yangtze River Basin. The scope of influence is relatively large. In addition to the Yangtze River Basin from west to east, it will also involve the Jianghuai, Huanghuai and other regions, bringing heavy rain or local heavy rain. After July 20, heavy rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River ended.
In general, in the next 10 days, the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River Basin will receive more rainfall. In addition to the flood conditions in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the floods and geological hazards in the junction of Sichuan, Chongqing, Shaanxi, and Gansu and the Huaihe River Basin should also be closely monitored.
On the afternoon of July 14, along the river polder in Poyang County, Jiangxi Province, officers and soldiers of a brigade from the 72nd Army of the Army in Jiangxi's anti-flood rescue were carrying sand and gravel inside the polder embankment against the scorching sun to strengthen the dam. China News Agency reporter Liu Zhankun
"Seven down and eight up" is here! Rain or more north and less south
According to the Ministry of Water Resources on the 13th, my country is about to enter the "seven times and eight up" (July 16-August 15) critical period of flood control.
In response to the climatic conditions during this period, Wang Zhihua said that it is expected that during the "seventh and eighth up" period, my country's precipitation will generally show a spatial distribution of "more north and less south".
The main rain belt in the eastern part of China presents obvious characteristics of periodic changes. At the end of mid-July, the main rain belt is located between the Yangtze River and the Yellow River, and the rainfall intensity is strong. From late July to early August, the main rain belt lifts north to Huanghuai and North China. To the northeast central and southern regions.
Song Lianchun pointed out that according to the prediction of the National Climate Center, the main heavy precipitation areas in the "seventh and eighth" are in the north of China, and the precipitation in the Songhua River Basin, Liaohe River, Haihe River, Huaihe River, and the Yellow River, including the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, are more than the same period of normal years. . Precipitation in the north is special. While we are doing flood control in the south, the pressure for flood control in the north is also relatively large. (Finish)