Over a period of 6 years, negotiations have been continuing between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Renaissance Dam without Egypt making little progress on the issue that threatens its water security and warns it of dire consequences.

For decades, the Egyptian position has been strong regarding the construction of any dams on the Nile in the source countries, taking advantage of previous agreements signed in the years 1902, 1929 and 1959 that give Egypt, as the downstream state, a kind of veto power over the construction of any dams that affect its share of the river’s longest water. In the world.

But the danger to Egypt came from where its people are not counted. Its current president, Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, signed an agreement with Ethiopia and Sudan in 2015, in which Ethiopia’s right to build the dam, which it says is important for its future development, was recognized.

Gradually, the Egyptian demands and hopes regarding the dam began to shrink, turning into something like acknowledging the fait accompli while seeking to persuade Ethiopia to extend the period of filling the lake of the dam for as long as possible, in order to reduce the expected damages to Egypt.

Loose formula

Projections indicate that the dam lake will absorb about 74 billion cubic meters of water, and Ethiopia wants to fill the lake within a period of 4-7 years, while Egypt wants this period to extend to at least 10 years, with an agreement on a legal system governing the management of water flow During the dry years.

The agreement to declare the principles - which Sisi signed in 2015 with the leaders of Ethiopia and Sudan - was satisfied with agreeing to fill the dam reservoir in stages and in a "cooperative" manner, a broad formulation that Ethiopia could not commit to what Egypt now considers necessary but rather a right acquired decades ago.

Although there are other disagreement points, the point of time period for filling the dam of the dam was the most prominent issue, which is what we offer details in the following depending on what was previously explained by Al-Jazeera Net in its coverage on this issue.

Scenario of 21 years
If the reservoir of the Renaissance Dam was filled within 21 years - which is almost impossible - then the water deficit in Egypt is expected to increase by 3 billion cubic meters annually or approximately 5% of Egypt's total budget of water annually (60.8 billion meters) Cubic, including 55.5 billion cubic meters of Nile water), and even with this relatively slight decrease there will be a loss of about 750 thousand acres (approximately 3035 square kilometers) or about 2.5% of the agricultural area in Egypt, but this will not cause a significant increase in rates Unemployment, and this scenario remains the least dangerous for Egypt.

Ten-year scenario
If the reservoir of the Renaissance Dam is filled during this period, the water deficit in Egypt will increase by 8 billion cubic meters annually, which is approximately 14% of Egypt's total annual water budget.

This may result in the event that irrigation methods are not changed to Bouar and desertify about two million acres (about 8035 square kilometers), or about 18% of the agricultural area of ​​Egypt, which means the loss of 6% of the total workforce, and high unemployment rates by an additional 17% of 11% currently.

The seven-year scenario
In this case, the water deficit in Egypt will increase by 12 billion cubic meters annually, or about 22% of Egypt's total annual total budget of water, thus losing about 3 million acres (about 12 thousand and 140 square kilometers), or about 30% Of the agricultural area of ​​Egypt, this will lead to the loss of 9% of the total workforce as a minimum, and an increase in unemployment rates by an additional 20%, which opens the door wide for serious economic and social repercussions.

The five-year scenario
If Ethiopia decides to implement this scenario, the water deficit in Egypt will increase by 20 billion cubic meters per year, or 36% of Egypt's total annual budget of water, which will lead to Bouar and desertification of 5 million acres (about 20 thousand and 234 square kilometers), This is equivalent to 50% of Egypt's agricultural area, and this will result in the loss of 15% of the total workforce as a minimum, and the rise in unemployment rates by 27% at the very least, and all of this will be seriously reflected in the economic and social conditions.

The three-year
scenario This is the most dangerous scenario for Egypt, as there will be severe consequences for filling the Renaissance Dam during this short period, and Egypt will lose about 27 billion cubic meters of water, or about 50% of its total annual water budget, and accordingly will lose about 6.75 million acres (20,234 sq km), or about 67% of its agricultural area.

This will cause the loss of at least 21% of the total workforce, and an increase in the country's unemployment rate by 34% as a minimum, and the consequences will be for social and economic risks to be posed, such as high crime rates and increased potential for displacement and irregular migration.