For banks, economic crises are about getting money back on loan.
And of course, in SEB, the feared credit losses are rising. The bank is up to four billion after six months. The forecast for the whole year is SEK 6 billion. It's a lot for most people but not for a bank. So - if it stays there, the whole thing will probably be forgotten already at the height of Marcus Wallenberg's speech at the next AGM.
Handelsbanken does not even report SEK 100 million in feared credit losses in the second quarter. This is the lowest level since the year before the global financial crisis.
What in theory should make the shareholders - and Finansinspektionen - even calmer is that the banks are now obliged to make an assessment of the economic situation in the future when they calculate future credit losses - all to reduce unpleasant surprises.
The stock exchanges do not count on other waves
But what is meant to reduce unpleasant surprises can in this case have the opposite effect. What is absolutely decisive for the economic situation for the rest of the year is whether there will be a second wave of shutdowns or not. And it is an assessment that is probably easier to make in a virological or political calculation model than in an economic one.
SEB's CEO does not expect a second wave of shutdowns when he stands firm - though not certain, he tells SVT - at the forecast of six billion in credit losses this year.
The stock markets globally obviously do not expect a second wave either - in Stockholm, the stock market is back at the same level as the day the corona virus became known, at New Year's.
Just hope it's true. Because in that case, the multi-billion-dollar amounts pumped into the corona-affected economies, including Sweden, have actually done their job, and the economy as a whole in the world can piece by piece return to something that is to a sufficient extent "business as usual".
However, there may be some cynicism in that calculation. One simply thinks that a second wave of viruses may not automatically lead to a second wave of shutdowns, because the costs may be even greater this time - for the economy and for society in a broader sense.
Industries and jobs still in danger
But there is a risk that the virus, in addition to killing people, will continue to put industries, jobs, working methods and lifestyles out of play.
Handelsbanken has expanded its list of corona-exposed industries. New ones include car sales and retail properties.
But the problems in the real estate sector can be much bigger than that. If the corona crisis continues for a long time, you can probably count on many not only abandoning their shopping centers for good but also their office chairs. This can have catastrophic consequences for the real estate industry as a whole. If unemployment rises for a long time, housing prices may also fall. Handelsbanken itself talks about 20 percent in the worst case in an analysis.
In total, the major Swedish banks have three quarters of their lending to the real estate industry.
Oil is an important factor
Although the loan-to-value ratio is in many cases lower than during the property crash in the 1990s, it is in properties that the corona crisis can do the greatest damage to the banks in Sweden.
Globally, it's about oil. The fact that fewer people want to buy oil would certainly be applauded for climate reasons, but the oil industry is heavily indebted. When the oil price falls, it can not pay its loans and the credit losses can become so large that they create a new financial crisis. Already today, oil losses can be seen in SEB's accounts.
But so far, the virus has still barely crossed the threshold to the bank palace at Kungsträdgården in Stockholm.