Three Azerbaijani soldiers were killed on Sunday and a fourth Monday in the Tavouch region, on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan. A region at the heart of a thirty-year conflict between the two former Soviet republics, which has been degenerating into armed struggle for two days.
This recent escalation of tensions comes shortly after the words of the Azerbaijani president, who had threatened to leave the peace talks on Karabakh, an enclave with an Armenian majority but dependent during the Soviet era on Azerbaijan. He had judged that his country had the right to seek "a military solution to the conflict".
The two countries blame each other
This Monday, the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry claimed the destruction of an Armenian military outpost while the Armenian Foreign Ministry said in the afternoon that it "completely controlled" the situation.
Yerevan and Baku accuse each other of having started these hostilities. "The Armenian political and military authorities bear full responsibility for these provocations," said Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pachinian told him that "provocations (adversaries) will not go unanswered," and his Defense Minister David Tonoyan warned that his forces were ready to take positions in enemy territory if necessary.
The whole region is involved
The appeasement may come from the Russian intervention. The main power in the region has deemed "unacceptable any further escalation that would threaten regional security" in the Caucasus and called the belligerents "to restraint".
Sergey Lavrov, the head of Russian diplomacy, met in two separate calls with his Armenian and Azerbaijani counterparts. He pleaded for a military de-escalation. A meeting of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a Russian-led bloc to which Armenia belongs, discussed the renewed violence on Monday. The Azerbaijani presidency accused Yerevan on Sunday of wanting to "involve (this) politico-military alliance in the conflict".
Baku can count on the support of another neighbor. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu expressed support for Azerbaijan, an allied and Turkish-speaking country. "What Armenia has done is unacceptable," he denounced, assuring that "Azerbaijan was not alone" with Turkey by its side. Yerevan reacted by denouncing Ankara's “provocative attitude”, accusing it of undermining the “security and stability of the region”.
An open war between Azerbaijan and Armenia could destabilize the entire Caucasus region, where Russia and Turkey in particular have competing geostrategic interests.
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