Detailed explanation by authoritative experts
How does heavy rain in the south compare to 1998 this year
Since June, southern my country has witnessed continuous heavy rainfall, showing a wide range of impact, long duration, extreme extremes, and high local rainfall overlap. From July 4 to July 10, Chongqing, Guizhou to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River experienced the strongest rainfall since this year, and some tributaries of the river exceeded the level of 1998.
How does the heavy rainfall in the South compare with 1998 this year, will there be rainfall and floods in the future? The reporter interviewed Ma Xueke, chief forecaster of the Central Meteorological Observatory, Wang Yongguang, chief forecaster of the National Climate Center, Huang Lei, a researcher at the Climate Change Office of the National Climate Center, and Zhai Jianqing, an associate researcher at the National Climate Center, and asked them to explain the recent heavy rainfall in the south.
Daily rainfall in multiple locations breaks through historical extremes
Mr. Ma introduced that from June 2 to July 12, the Central Meteorological Observatory issued a rainstorm warning for 40 consecutive days, becoming the longest time since the rainstorm warning business was launched in 2007. "This shows the recent strong rainstorm in the south." .
Wang Yongguang introduced that the data from the National Climate Center also confirmed this: since the flood season, as of July 10, there have been 15 large-scale heavy rainfall processes in southern my country. Among them, from June 11 to July 10, the main rain belt extended north to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the rainy center is located in northern Hunan, northwestern Jiangxi, eastern Hubei, southern Anhui, central Zhejiang and other places, Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangxi Bureau The cumulative precipitation in the area exceeds 800 mm.
Daily rainfall in many places broke through historical extremes. From July 4 to July 10, the daily rainfall of Huangmei, Xishui, Hubei, Ji'an, Xiajiang, and Longhui, Hunan, and other national meteorological observatories broke through extreme values.
From June 1 to July 9, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, Guizhou, Zhejiang, Chongqing, Hunan, Jiangxi, Shanghai, Guangxi, Sichuan and other provinces totaled 85 stations with cumulative precipitation exceeding half of the annual precipitation.
Heavy rains have put pressure on flood control in the Yangtze River basin. According to data from the Central Meteorological Observatory, from June 1 to July 12, the average precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin was 403 millimeters, 49% more than the same period of the previous year, the first since 1961. The Yangtze River Basin and Poyang Lake and Dongting Lake and other places There was a severe flood situation.
Comprehensive intensity of southern rainstorm: first in 1998 in 1998 and fifth in this year
At 0:00 on July 12, the water level in the water well of Xingzi Station, the iconic hydrological station of Poyang Lake, covered a red mark-"1998 flood level 22.52M". Historical extreme value.
The general concern is that, compared with the 1998 heavy rainstorm event in southern my country, how was the precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River?
"Comprehensively considering the scope, duration, and rainfall, it is found that since June 27 (as of July 9), the comprehensive intensity of the regional heavy rain weather process in southern China is the fifth strongest since 1961 (first in 1998)." Zhai Jianqing said, Compared with the 1998 flood, this year's regional torrential rain weather process lasted a long time and had a wide range of impact. From a regional perspective, the 1998 rainstorm process covered most of the area south of the Yangtze River, with more than 250 mm areas concentrated in northern Jiangnan and eastern Guangxi, etc.; this year, the rainstorm process was located to the north, concentrated in Jianghuai, eastern Jianghan, most of Jiangnan and Chongqing , Guizhou and other places, more than 250 mm area is concentrated in northwestern Hunan, southeastern Hubei, northwestern Jiangxi, southwest Anhui, western Fujian and other places.
Meteorological experts reminded that there are currently over-warning water levels in the Yangtze River Basin and Poyang Lake, Dongting Lake, Taihu Lake and other lakes. Meteorological satellite monitoring shows that the main body of Poyang Lake and the surrounding water area are the largest in the past 10 years. The situation is very grim.
Will the pressure on flood control be reduced in late July
Since July, my country's main rain belt has maintained from the east of the southwest to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. From July 11 to 12, the main rain belt lifted northward in stages.
Ma Xuejian reminded that according to the forecast of the Central Meteorological Observatory, after a short interval, from July 13 to July 16, the main rain belt will fall southward to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. During this period, the main areas of heavy rainfall will appear in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and some areas in eastern Chongqing, northern Guizhou, Hubei, northern Hunan, northwestern Jiangxi, central and southern Anhui, southern Jiangsu, Shanghai, northern Zhejiang, etc. To the rainstorm, the local heavy rainstorm. This coincides with the heavy rainfall from July 4 to July 7 and it needs to pay attention to the superimposed effects of precipitation.
"Even if the eastern part of the rain belt rises north in mid-to-late July, the pressure for flood control in the Yangtze River Basin will not be reduced. The obvious precipitation in the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River will still pose a threat to rivers and lakes with high water levels," said Xuexian Ma.
Will extreme weather and climate events increase in the future
"Although it is currently difficult to attribute a single weather and climate event (such as the southern rainstorm) directly to global warming, under the background of global warming, some extreme weather and climate events are indeed increasing." Huang Lei said that under the background of global warming, since 1951, China's average temperature and extreme temperature have shown a significant increase trend, and some extreme weather and climate events have shown the characteristics of stronger intensity, more frequent occurrence, and longer duration. The frequency of extreme heavy precipitation events will also increase in most parts of the world.
"Therefore, it is urgent to further enhance China's ability to respond to extreme disasters. It is necessary to take extreme disaster response as the core content of adapting to climate change, strengthen the risk prevention measures of extreme disasters, strengthen the monitoring and early warning of extreme weather and climate events, and manage the risk of meteorological disasters. Regional and key industry climate change impact assessments, strengthening ecological and environmental meteorological services, and improving government-led, department-linked, and socially involved disaster prevention and mitigation mechanisms." Huang Lei said.
(Reporter, Beijing, July 13th, reporter Yuan Yufei, Zhang Yaxiong)