The media focus on Duda's campaign against what he calls LGBT ideology is unfounded. He himself chose this focus because he portrayed Trazskowski, who stood up for the rights of LGBTQ people in his role as Warsaw mayor, as a representative of this ideology - portrayed as a threat to traditional Polish values ​​that they are trying to impose on Poland. On the whole, Trazskowski has been portrayed by the Duda campaign as going to foreign interests, mainly German but more recently "Jewish", as the president put it.

But it is impossible to assume that most Duda supporters are for completely different reasons - such as the introduction of a child allowance of the equivalent of SEK 1,200, a lowered retirement age and increased pension benefits. Overall, poverty has gone down since Law and Justice (PiS) came to power in 2015.

Trzaskowski is designated as a politician for the elite

After the election, political analysts in Poland have highlighted that Trzaskowski's mistake was that he did not attract voters from the poorer countryside. He has promised not to touch the popular child allowance, but his party, which has been touring with Law and Justice to hold power for just over fifteen years, is associated with a market liberalism that many experience only the richest.

On the opposition's side, many believe that the social initiatives the government has made in the long run are unsustainable. It is pointed out that, for example, lowering the retirement age to 60 years for women and 65 for men goes in the opposite direction to developments in other European countries.

Least bad option

However, there is also another group that supported Trazskowski in Sunday's crucial election round - those who see him as the least bad option. Many of us who have come to appreciate the government's social efforts but feel that PiS's concentration of power must be stopped at all costs. They respond to the public service TV channel being transformed into a government agency - something PiS supporters defend by saying that other media is against the government. PiS critics also turn to increased political influence over the judiciary and to the goal of the LGBTQ movement.

And it is these things that have also caused problems in relations with the EU. The European Commission has repeatedly criticized the reform of the judiciary and the European Court of Justice has had the government back valid parts of the reforms. But Duda's victory, which means that Law and Justice will be able to continue to change Poland at least until the parliamentary elections in three years, forces the EU to think about how to put the power behind the words.

Sweden runs the line that EU support should be linked to respect for the rule of law. In the ongoing negotiations on the EU's long-term budget and the recovery fund after the corona pandemic, it really can be decided how Poland's future in the EU will look.