The Poles are called to decide, Sunday July 12, between an outgoing conservative president and a europhile liberal who wants to restore ties with Brussels, in a presidential election whose second round promises to be very close.  

The result of this election will be decisive for the future of the government of the conservative and nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, which its detractors accuse of reversing the democratic freedoms acquired three decades ago at the fall of communism. 

Supported by PiS, President Andrzej Duda faces the mayor of Warsaw, Rafal Trzaskowski, of the main centrist opposition party Civic Platform (PO), and the latest polls show equal chances for the two candidates.  

The vote was to take place in May - at the time Mr. Duda was leading the voting intentions - but it had to be postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic.  

Support for the head of state has declined considerably since then, including due to the fallout from the epidemic, which has plunged Poland into its first recession since the fall of the communist regime. Experts say the outcome on Sunday could be so close that court challenges and protests may ensue.  

Polling stations open at 05:00 GMT and close at 19:00 GMT. An exit poll is planned soon after, the first official results coming only Monday morning.  

In the first round, on June 28, Mr. Duda came first with 43.5% of the vote and Mr. Trzaskowski second with 30.4%.  

Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, stresses that Rafal Trzaskowski had to mobilize very disparate parts of the electorate against Andrzej Duda and believes that the victory will therefore probably come to the outgoing candidate, with a narrow margin.  

"Trzaskowski proved to be a competent and eloquent candidate, but a fortnight is a short time to reduce the distance", according to the opinion of Eurasia Group, which highlights a "lack of clear support" on the part unsuccessful opposition candidates in the first round. 

"Two visions of Poland" 

Andrzej Duda promised to defend the popular social assistance launched by the PiS and waged a polarizing campaign, attacking in particular the rights of LGBT people and rejecting the idea of ​​compensation for Jewish property stolen by the Nazis and under the communist regime.  

"These elections are a confrontation of two visions of Poland, between white and red and the rainbow," said Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro, quoted on Friday by the PAP news agency, with reference to the Polish national flag and the symbol used by the LGBT community.  

The government and its public media, fully engaged in the campaign for Mr. Duda, attacked titles controlled by German capital, accusing them of "bias" after a tabloid from the Ringier group Axel Springer criticized Mr. Duda for pardoning a pedophile.  

Rafal Trzaskowski is in favor of civil partnerships, including between people of the same sex. His decision to sign a statement of support for LGBT people prompted many of eastern rural and most conservative regions in the country to proclaim themselves "LGBT Free Zones" last year.  

If successful, he promises to backtrack on controversial justice reforms that put Poland on a collision course with the rest of the European Union.  

"These elections will determine the fate of Poland for the foreseeable future," said Adam Strzembosz, former President of the Supreme Court and respected law professor.  

"Will it be dominated and completely subject to a political party, with all the consequences of a power of a dictatorial nature, or will we manage to stop this process?" He asked. 

 With AFP  

The France 24 week summary invites you to come back to the news that marked the week

I subscribe

Take international news everywhere with you! Download the France 24 app

google-play-badge_FR