• 12-J. Elections in Galicia
  • 12-J. Elections in the Basque Country

Four million Spaniards are called today to the polls in Galicia and the Basque Country. With masks, with hydroalcoholic gel in the hands, with a safety distance and in a hurry. To avoid exposure to the coronavirus. For the first time, voters will go to polling stations in the midst of a pandemic, with the certain threat of outbreaks as the background sea. In fact, these elections were scheduled for April 5, but were suspended precisely because of the enormous lethality caused by the virus at the time.

Now, the fear of the Covid-19 is still alive, and it has a full impact on two of the autonomous communities in which the electorate has a greater accent of its own. The question is not who will win both elections, but how much abstention there will be, and how that will affect governance. Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) leaves with all the cards in his hand to revalidate the absolute majority he has held for 11 years, and the polls show a comfortable victory for Íñigo Urkullu (PNV), and the possibility of choosing a partner in the legislature.

So the main focus for now is on the invisible candidate. Will the coronavirus be the black swan that breaks or hinders the continuity that the surveys in both regions anticipate? Is it completely safe to vote today? Those are the two main questions that fly over the journey.

Both Feijóo and Urkullu have guaranteed the voters that they will be able to go to their schools without any risk, as long as they scrupulously comply with the established protocols. Contagions in A Mariña (Lugo) continue to increase: yesterday four cases were added, up to 186. But the PP candidate for re-election stressed that "the incidence" of the outbreak is decreasing, since those four cases were screened among 144 tests PCR . Feijóo always says that going to vote is as safe as going to the pharmacy or a store. And in the Basque Country, Urkullu has insisted that the Ordizia (Gipúzcoa) outbreak is under control.

Although it is in the background before the virus outbreaks, the political panel will emerge again on Monday, with the results already clean. From the scrutinies, it will not be possible to draw too many analogies of a national scope, beyond the fact that the downward trend of United Podemos is consumed, and the observation that the two souls of the PP have a different pull in the communities considered as «historical ».

The Basque PP and Cs coalition aspires to obtain six seats and that Vox does not win one for Álava

All the polls agree that the purple formation can be the great loser of the elections: in Galicia, its brand would go from second force to fourth, due to the flight of votes to the BNG and the PSOE; and in the Basque Country it would lose two seats, presumably in favor of the Socialists and Bildu. Podemos touched the Basque political sky in 2015 and 2016 when it defeated the PNV at the polls. Since then it has lost more than 150,000 votes and today it will become the fourth political force.

In Galicia there is not a single prediction that does not indicate Feijóo as the winner with an absolute majority, that is why he is the candidate who most fears abstention. For this reason and because a crucial segment of their electorate are those over 65 years of age, who are more exposed to the virus and, therefore, could see their candidate's sure victory as a reason to stay at home and not take risks. .

In the Basque Country, the ballot boxes today examine the loyalty of the electorate, which will be key in the face of a foreseeable increase in abstention that will not penalize all formations equally. Hence, EH Bildu has rekindled its confrontation with the PNV, after the outbreak of Ordizia, a town of 9,000 inhabitants governed by EH Bildu. From Sabin Etxea, it is taken for granted that both the end-of-campaign messages from Maddalen Iriarte and the resources presented in the last two days by EH Bildu before the Electoral Board seek to demobilize the nationalist vote, fundamentally in Guipúzcoa, to block the growth that the surveys grant to the PNV.

The PP-Cs coalition has demanded the constitutional vote without mentioning Vox and against the Government of Sánchez and Iglesias. An Executive that the leader of the PSE-EE Idoia Mendia has placed at the forefront of a low-profile campaign and showing himself as a brake on the alleged sovereignist aspirations - very disguised in recent months - of his partner Iñigo Urkullu. Mendia has also reinforced the loyalty of its voters since in 2015 it chose to co-govern with the PNV and everything points to it growing to 11 or 12 parliamentarians. The PNV and PSE-EE coalition is taken for granted, and Mendia takes the step of being part of the third Urkullu government.

Five months after the farewell of Alfonso Alonso, Casado has revitalized the Basque PP by recovering Carlos Iturgaiz, and turning personally to the Basque campaign. Assuming the loss of seats with the strategic alliance with Cs, the Iturgaiz list aspires to achieve seven parliamentarians, would consider the six representatives good and does not rule out falling to five (now it has nine) if Vox scratches a deputy for Álava , the great objective Santiago Abascal.

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