The outgoing president, Andrzej Duda (Conservative Law and Justice Party, PIS), who thought he would win the election in the first round, must face the unexpected breakthrough of the Civic Platform (PO), led by his opponent, the mayor of Warsaw Rafal Trzaskowski, in the polls.

If President Duda came out on top with more than 43% of the votes in the first round, his opponent who crossed the symbolic bar of 30% of votes represents a real threat for the second round on Sunday.

Andrzej Duda nevertheless benefited from significant media coverage, while carrying out an election campaign that was sometimes surprising. If he failed to convince as much as he thought, it was partly because of his polemical remarks aimed at the LGBT community. The attempt to maintain the presidential election in May, in the midst of a pandemic, also cost him some popularity points.

The carry of votes favors the Liberal candidate

The liberal candidate, very popular in the big cities, is on the way to seduce a large part of the electorate of the independent, Szymon Holownia, third man in this election (13.87% of the votes in the first round). The latter believes that the outgoing president is leading the country towards authoritarianism. If he has not formally called to support Rafal Trzaskowski, Szymon Holownia publicly expresses points of agreement with the ideas of this one, as explains the correspondent of France 24 in Warsaw, Gulliver Cragg.

The different reserves of votes are a major issue in the second round of this presidential election. The question also arises for the supporters of the young nationalist candidate Krzysztof Bosak. Who will the voters who allowed the far-right party get 6.75% of the vote in the first round vote?

Both Andrzej Duda and Rafal Trzaskowski hope to seduce the electorate of Krzysztof Bosak by emphasizing their common points: traditional values ​​for the outgoing president, and the fight against the bureaucratic monopoly of power for the liberal candidate.

One Poland, two visions

It is a real ideological and cultural battle waging during this electoral campaign. The two candidates who cross iron embody two diametrically opposed visions of Poland and its future.

Europe is at the center of the challenges of this election, which could redefine relations between Warsaw and Brussels. Rafal Trzaskowski has also presented himself as the candidate who will reconnect with Europe and who will guarantee real democracy in the country.

Due to the persistent antagonisms between Poland and Europe, in particular concerning the reform of justice and the public media, Brussels follows this election very closely.

On Sunday, the Poles will say if they maintain their confidence in Duda or if they want to turn the page on the PiS, in power since 2015.

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