Covid-19 spreads to Africa, threatens 50 million people in extreme poverty

The "epidemic outbreak" of Covid-19, feared for a time in Africa, did not happen. The number of cases certainly continues to increase - 489,000 positive cases according to the WHO, more than 500,000 according to an AFP count, 11,500 deaths - but the continent with 1.2 billion inhabitants remains the least affected of the world after Oceania.

In an investigation published Tuesday July 7, BBC Africa notes the speed with which the virus seems to have spread since mid-May: "While it took almost a hundred days for Africa to reach an initial number of 100,000 cases , it only took 18 days for that number to double. It doubled again to 400,000 in the next 20 days. "

>> See: Coronavirus, the African challenge, investigation of the evolution of the pandemic on the continent

Figures to be put into perspective because the testing capacities of African States have increased considerably in recent months. "44 African countries [out of 54] can now carry out Covid-19 tests. At the start of the epidemic, only two could do so," notes the WHO. South Africa, which had imposed very strict confinement of its population very early on, remains the most affected country, with more than 215,000 cases recorded, more than France, which has 10 million more inhabitants. .

Significant economic recession

The real crisis to come on the continent, where a third of the inhabitants, or 425 million people, live below the poverty line (with less than $ 1.90 a day in purchasing power parity), will be rather economic, according to a report released Tuesday by the African Development Bank (AfDB). "Between 28.2 and 49.2 million Africans could fall into extreme poverty" this year and next year, according to AfDB scenarios, depending on the duration and extent of the economic recession.

The development institution, based in Abidjan, anticipates a major economic recession for the continent, with a contraction of GDP from 1.7% to 3.4% this year. Or a loss of 5.6 to 7.3 points compared to growth forecasts before the Covid-19 crisis, which were largely positive.

It is Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa with 200 million inhabitants, which should see the greatest increase in poverty. Between 8.5 and 11.5 million Nigerians are expected to fall into extreme poverty in 2020, in this country very dependent on its oil sector hard hit by the global economic crisis and the fall in black gold prices.

The coronavirus pandemic also poses an increased risk to the public debts of African countries, notes the AfDB. To limit the socio-economic consequences of the crisis, many countries have indeed announced major fiscal stimulus plans, up to 10% of GDP in South Africa.

Thus, budget deficits "should double" on the continent, reaching 8 to 9% of GDP, while "many African countries have approached this crisis with high debt-to-GDP ratios". The Covid-19 crisis "reinforces the probability of a generalized and deep sovereign debt crisis", worries the AfDB.

With AFP

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