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Share07 July 2020 OECD countries, starting from Italy, have taken unprecedented measures to deal with the impact of the coronavirus emergency on employment. However, now, with the recovery of economic activities, a change of course is needed with respect to the package of measures taken at the peak of the crisis and based on the freezing of layoffs and layoffs.
It is therefore necessary "to find the right balance between renewed support for those in difficulty, the accompaniment of inevitable restructuring where necessary and the creation of new jobs". This is what emerges from the OECD's Employment Outlook 2020, in which the Paris organization invites to avoid a second wave of pandemic, which would call into question the good things done so far. And, secondly, move on to a new phase, which takes into account that this crisis will not be short and that, in two years, in 2021, we will hardly have returned to the starting point, that is, to the pre-covid levels of 2021.
Italy one of the most affected countries: unemployment will reach 12.4% by 2020
"Italy was one of the OECD countries most affected by the economic spillover effects of Covid-19", in fact "Italy recorded one of the biggest drops hours worked between all OECD countries ", equal to a contraction of -28% in the first three months of the crisis, writes the OECD. Unemployment is estimated to be in our country, "which before Covid-19 was still well above pre-2008 levels, is expected to reach 12.4% by the end of 2020, wiping out four years of slow improvements." "As the Italian economy begins to reopen" after the lockdown, "unemployment is expected to gradually decline to 11% by the end of 2021, but will still remain well above the pre-crisis level," continues the OECD .
Recruitment incentives, dismissal ban: measures to restart Italy
Recruitment incentives, focused on the most vulnerable groups, to promote the creation of new jobs; readjustment of the layoffs to give companies and workers the right incentives to resume their activity or to look for another job; reconsideration of the functioning of citizenship income and emergency income to ensure that the most needy families are truly supported. These are for the OECD, as emerges from the Employment Report, some of the interventions with which Italy, "which has adopted unprecedented measures in the emergency", must now find "the right balance between renewed support for those who are in difficulty, the accompaniment of the inevitable restructuring where necessary and the creation of new jobs ". And among these also "the prohibition of dismissal and the limits on the hiring of workers with a fixed-term contract, to prevent the adjustment being passed on entirely to workers without an open-ended contract" and the significant renewal of the Youth Guarantee program to help those under 30 to maintain a link with the labor market.
Unemployment in OECD countries will reach 9.4% by the end of 2020
Unemployment in OECD countries will reach 9.4% by the end of 2020, against a value of 5.3% at the end of 2019. 'OECD. Again according to the OECD, there will be a "gradual" recovery, with the unemployment rate expected to remain "at or above the peak level recorded during the global financial crisis, reaching by the end of 2021 7.7% if there is not a second wave of coronaviruses (and 8.9% in the case of a second wave), with substantial differences between countries ".
Without lockdown healthcare collapse and millions of deaths
The severe restrictions on social and economic life that most member countries have adopted to curb the spread of coronavirus have prevented the collapse of the health system and have helped to avoid hundreds, if not millions, of thousands , of dead ". Said the secretary general of the OECD, Angel Gurria.
Without lockdown in Italy 500 thousand deaths
By introducing restrictions on economic and social life, countries have avoided the collapse of their health systems and hundreds of thousands of deaths. The OECD indicates this in the Employment Outlook, in which it examines the effects of the coronavirus crisis mainly on the labor market, but also from the health aspect. 'The simulations suggest that in the absence of confinement measures, the number of deaths from Covid-19 could have been of the order of 500 thousand in Italy and millions in the various OECD countries, according to the report. the number of patients who would have required advanced therapies would have been dozens of times higher, causing the collapse of health systems and therefore even more deaths, the study adds.
Do not allow a lost generation of young people
"Do not allow the result of this crisis to be a lost generation of young people". It is the warning that comes from the secretary general of the OECD Angel Gurria. "Decisions on how, and at what speed, it is possible to return to an economic and social activity, while ensuring the safety of workers".
🔴 WATCH NOW | The # COVID19 pandemic has triggered one of the worst #jobs crises since the Great Depression. Our Secretary-General @A_Gurria & @OECD_Social Director @stescarpetta present the latest OECD #EmploymentOutlook ⤵️ https://t.co/2DSwfJ6ONX https://t.co/n3vw8deZ2h- OECD ➡️ Better policies for better lives (@OECD) July 7, 2020