The coronavirus crisis will not take its toll on the parties of the previous Basque Government, on the contrary. Both the PNV and the PSE, which have governed in coalition the past legislature, reinforce their position and are the only ones clearly on the rise according to a Sigma Dos poll for EL MUNDO.

The ballot boxes especially benefit the PNV . The poll, carried out between July 1 and 2, gives the Iñigo Urkullu PNV a comfortable victory, clearly reinforcing its position regarding the 2016 results. With Urkullu repeating as a candidate for Lehendakari, the 'jeltzales' would have between 34 and 35 seats, compared to 28 in 2016 . A historic result in the Basque Parliament, which they did not even achieve at the time when they appeared in coalition with EA. You have to go back to the 2001 elections to find the highest number of seats, 33, obtained by the PNV-EA coalition. Even so, the 35 maximum seats granted by the PNV survey would not give it an absolute majority, which requires 38 seats, andTherefore, it would need to agree with another group to have a stable government .

The survey again shows that the PNV has a faithful, crisis-proof electorate such as that of the Zaldibar landfill or the Covid-19-derived health utility. None subtract votes. In fact, the PNV has practically immovable its intention to vote since March, that is, since the start of the pandemic and confinement: from 43.5% of voting intention in March it has gone to 43, 8% in the month of July.

The other party that comes out of four years of government, the PSE, and which could be penalized by the action of Pedro Sánchez in the Government of Spain, is also reinforced. Idoia Mendia and her family would have 11 seats, two more than in 2016 , which again places the Socialists on the starting grid as a Government party together with the PNV, since both Socialists and Nationalists have always valued the goodness of the agreement between both formations as a symbol of the plurality of the Basque Country. The Socialists take third place, behind EH Bildu, who could lose a seat compared to 2016 and stay with 17, to the detriment of Elkarrekin Podemos, who moves to fourth place. In fact, the purple coalition and the PP-Cs union are the formations that suffer the greatest setback.

The Podemos and Ezker Anitza-IU coalition can lose between 4 and 5 seats, going from the 11 of the previous legislature to having only 6 or 7 as of 12-J. The bruises resent the internal crisis, with the change of candidate and direction at the gates of the elections under the umbrella of Pablo Iglesias, who has placed his faithful in command, and also of the change of strategy. The candidate for lehendakari Miren Gorrotxategi, has not been able to monetize her bet from minute one of her appointment to form a coalition government with EH Bildu and PSE , which would translate into practice in making lehendakari to the candidate of Bildu. What's more, this bet has led many of its voters to abstain, since most of those who in this survey admit that they are not going to vote were former Elkarrekin Podemos voters, or to direct their vote towards the PSE, the most benefited from the fall of Podemos. Equo, previously in the purple coalition, can take part of the votes of this formation, although the Greens do not get enough representation to get to Parliament.

Podemos, which even surpassed the PNV in general elections in number of votes and in that year 2015 was shown as a government alternative, is now irrelevant, and would tie seats with the constitutionalist coalition of PP-Cs, led by Carlos Iturgaiz. The bet of appearing in a coalition, not only does not add to the constitutionalists, but it subtracts from the results achieved by the popular ones alone in the 2016 elections, when Alfonso Alonso was the candidate. If they got 9 seats then, they now plummet to 6 . Part of the votes lost by the constitutionalist coalition fall to the PNV, thanks to Urkullu's image of stability. They improve in voting intention from the month of March, from 7.1% to 7.6%, which can be interpreted as an endorsement of the citizens to their attitude in the health crisis, Still they show that the coalition with Cs has not granted no electoral revenue.

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Know more

  • Basque Country
  • Basque Country Elections
  • PNV
  • PSE
  • Bildu
  • We can
  • Elkarrekin We Can
  • Pablo Iglesias
  • Pedro Sánchez
  • Inigo Urkullu
  • Alfonso Alonso
  • IU
  • Equo
  • Citizens
  • Carlos Iturgaiz

Basque CountryThe PNV would achieve up to 31 parliamentarians on 12J according to a Basque Government survey that penalizes PP and C's

Basque Country Pedro Sánchez, Carmen Calvo and Marlaska wrap Mendia at the start of the PSE electoral campaign

Basque Country "No one is going to give me lessons with social rights", warns Iñigo Urkullu to the 'left tripartite'

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