Added 50,000 consecutive breaks in a single day! What happened to the US epidemic

  Recently, the number of new cases of new pneumonia in the United States has risen rapidly. From June 23 to 26, the number of new cases in a single day nationwide surged from 33,000 to 45,000; from July 1 to 3, it exceeded 50,000 for three consecutive days, creating a record high in succession. However, some high-ranking US political leaders, led by Trump, claimed that the increase in the number of cases stemmed from improved detection capabilities, and said "this is good news". It seems that the epidemic is still under control.

  On one side are terrifying numbers, on the other side is the confusing language of politicians. Behind the contradictions, what happened to the US epidemic?

  Multiple cases due to multiple tests? Not so simple

  The number of people detected is large, so many cases are found. It sounds reasonable, but the situation in the United States is not so simple.

  According to the statistics of the "New Coronary Pneumonia Tracking Project" initiated by The Atlantic in the United States, on June 23, the United States tested 500,000 cases a day, 33,000 were positive, and the positive rate was 6.7%; on the 26th, it reached 600,000 cases. 45,000 were positive, with a positive rate of 7.5%; more than 720,000 cases were tested on July 3, and 58,000 were positive, with a positive rate of 8%.

  It can be seen that while the number of tests in the United States has greatly increased, the positive rate has also increased, indicating that the epidemic situation in the United States has deteriorated much faster than the development of detection capabilities. In other words, even if the number of tests does not increase, the number of new cases will increase as the positive rate increases. This is very different from the situation from May to early June. At that time, the number of new cases in the United States was tens of thousands every day, but the positive test rate dropped from more than 10% on May 1 to the shortage on June 15. 5%.

  Compared with national data, the situation in some US states is more worrying. For example, on June 3, Arizona had about 1,000 new cases with a positive test rate of 10%; Texas had 1,700 new cases with a positive test rate of 8.3%. As of July 3, the number of new cases in Arizona has exceeded 4,400, with a positive rate of 25%; the number of new cases in Texas is 7,555, with a positive rate of 19%.

  Is the epidemic worsening unpredictably? The crisis could have been avoided

  As early as 2007, Howard Markle, director of the University of Michigan Medical History Center, published an article in the Journal of the American Medical Association, reviewing the control of the 1918 pandemic in 43 American cities including St. Louis. The results showed that after the government adopted social alienation measures, influenza cases began to decline, and then some cities loosened control, flu cases rose rapidly, the government was forced to take long control measures again, the number of cases began to fall, until the epidemic was completely curbed . The article refers to this phenomenon as the "bimodal infectious disease curve."

  Compared with the epidemic, in April this year, the US White House and the Centers for Disease Control issued "Guidelines for the Restart of the United States," proposing the "five major standards" for states to restart, to ensure economic recovery under the premise of safety. On May 20th, all 50 states in the United States have been restarted. However, according to the statistics of ProPublica, a US news survey website, there was only one state at that time—Illinois met all the standards, and 30 states met less than three standards.

  Therefore, the US VOX website summarized the deteriorating epidemic in this report: "The United States is now in a predictable and preventable wave of new coronary pneumonia cases..." "The second peak of the bimodal infectious disease curve is being experienced" "Carelessness and partisanship are the culprits." "Under Trump's leadership, the federal government and some states seem to put the economy above public health."

  Jamie Slaughter-Assie, an epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota, said: "This need not have happened." "For almost 3 months, you have the opportunity to proactively reduce the epidemic of the new coronavirus... but no Economic priority".

  What about the current situation? Restart control measures

  Lauren Ansel Meyers, a mathematical biologist at the University of Texas at Austin, said in an interview with the VOX website that the United States must restart epidemic control measures before hospital capacity is overloaded. New York stepped on the “brake” in mid-March. It was not until early or mid-April that the death toll peaked and began to decline.

  At present, 23 states in the United States have begun to slow down the pace of economic restart and gradually introduced some new control measures. However, Trump and other high-level government officials still do not recognize that the new epidemic peak is coming. The White House has not even resumed the briefing of the epidemic. Whether to wear a mask is still a political issue. The election rally is held as usual, and the US "Independence Day" celebration can be Awe-inspiring...

  At present, the growth rate of cases in many US states is rising rapidly. According to statistics, on July 2, the number of daily new cases in Florida increased by 191% compared with the data two weeks ago, Georgia increased by 167%, Louisiana increased by 131%, and Texas increased by 125%. California is up 90% and Arizona is up 77%. According to the statistics of the covidexitstrategy.org website, the epidemic situation in only a few states in the United States, such as New York and New Jersey, is improving.

  In the last peak, there was only one "epicenter" in the US epidemic, that is, New York and its surrounding areas, and this epidemic peak is likely to have multiple "epicenters", making it more difficult to control. At the end of March this year, the U.S. authoritative think tank Strategy and International Research Center (CSIS) issued a report predicting that once the US epidemic occurs repeatedly, it will take a long time to enter the "roller coaster" mode and implement "social isolation" again. month.