China News Service, Beijing, July 4th, Question: International Observation: How does the "epidemic" world start in the second half of the year?
Reporter Zhang Shuo
More than half of 2020 has been shrouded in the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, accompanied by the sign node of over 10 million confirmed cases worldwide. In the second half of this special year, the world's political and economic pattern, geography, and social life that have been changed by the epidemic will probably undergo profound adjustments.
Researchers are demonstrating the experimental process of developing a new coronavirus mRNA vaccine. Photo by Tang Yanjun
War epidemic, cooperation and vaccines are the key
Epidemic prevention and control will remain the top priority in the second half of the year. In the past week, there have been more than 160,000 new cases in a single day in the world. The epidemic situation in the United States, Brazil, India and other countries has soared against the trend, which has also sounded the alarm for epidemic prevention.
The cumulative number of confirmed cases in the United States has exceeded 2.79 million, and this trend will continue to develop. Even if the world's largest country has the most powerful medical capabilities, it will face a huge test. Many public opinion believe that the loss of control of the US epidemic is due to the wrong direction of the anti-epidemic, and timely correction is the key to the prevention and control of the epidemic in the second half of the year.
Latin American countries are also under great pressure. In the past half a month, the cumulative number of newly diagnosed cases in the region has exceeded one million, and vulnerable groups have been hit hard by the epidemic. A French virologist said that the second wave of outbreaks worldwide may come from South America.
India, the world’s fourth-diagnosed case, continues to refresh its record of new cases in a single day. The country with the largest slums in Asia has a long way to go in order to realize what Prime Minister Modi said "in the darkness of the virus spreading, constantly moving towards the light and hope."
In addition, the African epidemic is also worthy of attention. At present, there are more than 50 countries in this area, and the number of confirmed cases has rapidly increased to 433,000 cases as of July 3. In Africa, where development is relatively backward and the medical system is weak, once the epidemic expands, the impact on the economy and society will be unimaginable. Supporting African epidemic prevention and control is one of the focal points of international cooperation in the second half of the year.
In the second half of the year, whether vaccine research and development can make breakthrough progress, and how competition and cooperation around vaccines develop, is of great importance to prevention and control. Today, global vaccine development is "full firepower." The World Health Organization has recently confirmed that at least 142 vaccines are under development, among which more than ten vaccines developed by scientists from China, the United States, Britain and Germany are undergoing clinical evaluation.
On June 22, local time, France entered the third phase of "unblocking". The famous Paris Opera House was reopened, and most of the internal spaces were allowed to enter, including the magnificent concert hall, exhibition hall, library, and museum. However, activities such as opera performances still have to wait until September to be scheduled. China News Service reporter Li Yangshe
Coordination, epidemic prevention and economic recovery need to "walk together"
For those countries where the epidemic has slowed slightly, the focus in the second half of the year is to balance the prevention and control of the epidemic and economic recovery. It is not easy to solve this problem.
In the past six months, the impact of the epidemic on the world economy and various economies is obvious. According to the latest forecast from the International Monetary Fund, the global economy will shrink by 4.9% this year, of which GDP in advanced economies will fall by 8%, and GDP in developing and emerging markets will fall by 3%, both of which are further lowered than the previous forecast.
In terms of actual operation, countries that strongly promote economic recovery policies, such as the United States, have experienced "retaliation rebounds" of the epidemic, and some states have to press the "pause button" again. Even with a cautious policy of unblocking, some countries have emerged with new epidemic risks. Synchronized with the unblocking process in Europe, the meat processing companies in Germany, France, and Britain have successively experienced cluster infections.
In addition to the epidemic situation, many countries have reversed globalization. Protectionism intensified its rise after the outbreak, and brought greater uncertainty to the global economy.
The epidemic prevention and control has become normalized. How to implement opening and cooperation in the "post-epidemic era", optimize and stabilize the industrial chain and supply chain, and flexibly adjust the economic form will test the wisdom of each economy, especially the major economies.
It is generally expected that with the resumption of production and production and the easing policies of various countries in the early stage, the global economic decline may narrow in the third quarter. However, it should also be noted that due to the differences in the development of epidemic situations in different regions, the progress of economic policies in various countries is different. The process of recession and recovery of different economies may be further differentiated in the second half of the year, and the adjustment of the international economic and financial structure may also enter an accelerated cycle. .
On May 19th local time, the 73rd World Health Assembly was held in a video conference. The picture shows WHO Director-General Tan Desset intently wearing a shirt gifted by the Tongan government to make a closing speech, calling on the world to unite to respond to the epidemic. Photo courtesy of China News Service
Game, global geopolitics is tested
When the number of cases exceeds 10 million, WHO Director-General Tan Desai once again called for not to politicize the epidemic. The reason for this is that the "political virus" is raging along with the new crown virus, which has become a typical manifestation of the impact of the epidemic situation on the political field in the first half of the year, and has also hindered global anti-epidemic cooperation.
Whether it is “relentlessly” linking the virus to China, stigmatizing China in a variety of ways, or repeatedly criticizing the WHO, withdrawing dues, and threatening to withdraw, a series of operations by some American politicians has exacerbated the The competition and game between them, and their intention to push China and the United States to the "decoupling" and "new cold war", forcing allies to stand in line between China and the United States, and neglecting the interests of allies on issues such as epidemic prevention and control, multilateralism, etc. European allies are dissatisfied.
The epidemic situation is a major examination of the system model and governance model. Judging from the performance in the first half of the year, the West has adopted a strategy with competition as its core because of fears that its dominant position will be affected. In the second half of the year, due to the existence of American elections and other factors, for the political needs of the elections, Western politicians should shirk their responsibilities and divert domestic dissatisfaction. There should be a lot of "epidemic politics" in a short time.
In addition to relations between major powers, geopolitics under the epidemic has also been tested. Once the epidemic situation worsens in the second half of the year, geopolitical turmoil will be inevitable.
In the first half of the year, the international community saw that Palestine and Israel joined forces to fight against the epidemic, and that there was "uncommon calm" in the Gaza Strip where conflicts continued. On July 1, the UN Security Council unanimously passed a resolution on the new crown epidemic, demanding that all parties to the conflict on the Security Council's agenda immediately cease hostilities, achieve a 90-day ceasefire, and ensure access to humanitarian assistance. This is undoubtedly a victory for multilateralism. In the second half of the year, it is expected that all parties will continue to break the zero-sum thinking, watch each other and help each other.
On the afternoon of June 27, local time, Berlin, Germany held another anti-racism demonstration with thousands of people participating. The African-American man George Freud died after violent law enforcement by the Minneapolis police in the United States. This is the third large-scale demonstration against racism and discrimination in Berlin. The picture shows people taking part in the demonstration at an interpersonal distance of 1.5 meters on June 17th in Berlin. China News Service reporter Peng Dawei
Review, life changed by the epidemic will continue
While the world is working hard to restore economic and social normality, a wave of anti-discrimination protests triggered by the "death of Freud" has spread to at least 140 cities across the United States and spread to other countries. Although the incident stemmed from police violent law enforcement resulting in deaths, most commentators believe that "the life of black people is also life" resonates globally, indicating that the shortcomings and persistent diseases of social governance under the epidemic have been fully exposed.
A survey released by the Pew Research Center in the United States on July 1 showed that due to the spread of the epidemic, African and Asian groups in the United States have experienced more racial discrimination than ever before. British "Nature" magazine also pointed out that since the outbreak of the outbreak, Asians around the world have become the target of racist attacks, and paid a huge price. The World Health Organization has repeatedly reminded that disease outbreaks can reveal the kindest and ugliest aspects of humankind. Stigmatizing individuals or the entire country will only harm the response.
At the same time, the "epidemic" of the National Civil War also showed a warm side, from veneer, hug, handshake to "safe social distance", social responsibility, border awareness, etc., have been strengthened in the epidemic.
The outbreak of the epidemic has disturbed the world. Humans are fighting and adjusting in confusion. The life changed by the epidemic will continue. Reexamining the relationship between individuals and between individuals and society under this global public health crisis is becoming an important part of the reconstruction of social order. (Finish)