Author: Bian Lei, Zhang Olin
From 2020 to 2030, Japan's "10-year plan for space exploration" was officially released recently. In this amendment to the "Basic Basic Plan" finalized by the Cabinet, Japan set the tone for the development of aerospace in the next 10 years.
Security assurance, intelligence gathering, missile surveillance, astronauts landing on the moon, space combat team... Many of the contents seem to be a glimpse of the country’s strategy and ambitions in space exploration and the militarization of aviation technology. However, has Japan's strength in recent years been enough to support such ambitions?
Data map: On August 24, 2015 local time, the Japanese unmanned cargo spacecraft "Stork" No. 5 aircraft arrived at the International Space Station, and was successfully connected to the space station through a robotic arm.
Ten-year plan released, intended to "prepare" space?
In the finalized "Cosmic Ten Year Plan", the opening chapter mentioned the importance of space security. Throughout the article, the word "security guarantee" is mentioned 46 times. The plan specifically pointed out that under the current situation, it is "very necessary" to strengthen the functions of intelligence gathering satellites and establish a space surveillance system.
Specifically, monitoring satellites and space debris from other countries, enhancing the intelligence and communication capabilities of "Sky and Earth", and spy satellite networking will be the key targets of Japan's medium- and long-term satellite development.
Public opinion pointed out that Japan's ambitions in militarization of aviation technology can be seen.
In fact, Japan's aerospace ambitions have been revealed before. In May 2020, Japan announced the establishment of the first space force "Space Combat Team" with the main task of "surveillance of space debris and suspicious satellites."
What is the purpose of a series of actions in Japan? In this regard, ChinaNews.com specially invited Chen Jie, the chief researcher of the Strategic Planning Department of China Academy of Aerospace Systems Science and Engineering, to explain Japan’s space strategy in detail.
Data Map: The first "Defense Communication Satellite" of the Japanese Ministry of Defense was launched from the Tanegashima Aerospace Center in Kagoshima Prefecture on the afternoon of January 24, 2017.
Chen Jie said, "Japan has followed the American perspective to form the Japanese "Sky Army". Although it is small in scale, it has clear functions and clear intentions, and it has continuously strengthened cooperation with the US Sky Army and the US Space Command. Japan is preparing for space. It is self-evident."
"Recently, the Abe government has proposed to revise the space policy, hoping to develop and deploy more intelligence-gathering satellites to monitor missile threats. In general, Japan’s military aerospace development is more intense and the military aerospace system is developing faster."
In addition, the "Plan" mentioned the issue of much concern about the moon landing, pointing out that "strive to enable Japanese astronauts to play a greater role." Japanese media said that the government actually hopes that its astronauts are expected to land on the moon.
However, Japan does not intend to send astronauts to the moon by itself. The "plan" refers to the US "Artemis" lunar exploration program. Just at the end of 2019, Japan officially announced that it will participate in this lunar exploration program in the United States. However, there is no clear news as to whether Japan’s expectations can be fulfilled. This idea seems to be still in the cradle.
Under the development of spaceflight, many prime ministers personally "come out"
"Japan attaches great importance to its aerospace development, there is no doubt about it," Chen Jie replied when talking about Japan's attitude towards the aerospace cause.
In the early days, the Japanese aerospace business was mainly responsible for two organizations, namely the Japan Space Development Corporation (founded in 1969) and the Japan Institute of Space Science (founded in 1981).
In the 21st century, in order to meet the needs of the development of the aviation industry in the new era, Japan merged the above two institutions and the Aerospace Technology Research Institute into the Japan Aerospace Research and Development Agency (JAXA) in 2003. In less than two decades, it became the core of Japan's aviation business.
JAXA's "head boss", the space development strategy headquarters established in 2008, is the hub of Japan's aviation business. It is also since then that the Cabinet’s interest in aviation has increased significantly, and successive prime ministers have served as heads of the department.
Data Map: Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
Especially after the current Prime Minister Shinzo Abe came to power, he was extremely concerned about the space program. Not only has he personally attended the Space Development Strategy Headquarters meetings in person, but he has also been eager to post on social media after he decided to participate in the "Artemis" project.
"The current overall size of the Japanese aerospace industry is 1.2 trillion yen, which is approximately US$11 billion. Japan’s goal is to double the overall size of the aerospace industry to US$22 billion by 2030. In ten years, the size will double, indicating Japan must make great efforts in industrial development," Chen Jie pointed out.
Can the strength of Japanese aerospace support its ambitions?
In the aerospace industry, it is often said: "As long as the ability of a carrier rocket is, the stage of aerospace is as large as possible." Therefore, the strength of Japan's aerospace, measured from a specific field, should start with the carrier rocket.
As a pioneer country in the aerospace field, Japan began to develop carrier rockets early. In February 1970, Japan sprinted to "run" and successfully launched the first artificial satellite "Osumi" with the "Lambda-4S-5" multi-stage solid carrier rocket, becoming the fourth after the Soviet Union, the United States, and France. Countries with space launch capabilities.
However, Japanese experts also admitted that the rocket's technical level is not high.
Since then, Japan began to invite "plug-ins" to save the field. It introduced American technology and developed a series of launch vehicles. At present, Japan's main H-type carrier rocket has been replaced three generations. With the last launch of the H-2B in Japan in May 2020, the "relay baton" will be passed to the new generation of H3 rockets. According to plan, it will make its first flight in 2020.
Japan's new generation H3 rocket has a total length of 63 meters and is scheduled for a pilot launch in 2020. The H3 rocket can launch a variety of satellites of different sizes and orbits by switching and assembling the types of fairings, level 1 engines and the number of solid rocket thrusters. The picture shows various combinations of H3 rockets. (Source: JAXA official website)
Chen Jie said that Japan has developed a liquid and solid rocket technology by combining the military with the people. At present, Japan has matured to master the technology of large liquid launch vehicles, with large payload launch capabilities and small solid rocket launch capabilities.
At the same time, Japan has not stopped exploring in the field of deep space exploration. The most known to the outside world is the asteroid trip of the "Falcon Bird" family. "Falcon 2" went to the asteroid "Dragon Palace" in 2014. In 2019, it created artificial craters and successfully collected underground rock fragments. Right now, it has made a return journey day and night, and is expected to reach the earth from November to December 2020.
In addition, in the field of satellite technology and industry, Japan just launched its eighth optical reconnaissance satellite in February 2020. The resolution of this "Optical 7" is better than 0.3 meters. If the resolution is lower than 1 meter, it can be used for detailed investigation in the military. Although its resolution is not up to US standards, it is also at the world's leading level.
What are the gaps compared with European and American countries?
"In 2020, Japan's $11 billion aerospace industry will account for about 2.5% of the global aerospace industry, which is relatively low compared to the United States and European countries. For example, the United States accounts for about 40%." Chen Jie pointed out.
Compared with the United States and Europe, Japan has fewer space launches overall. This is directly related to the small number of satellite deployments. In addition, the cost of Japan's space launch is relatively high, and there is a big gap with the low-cost launch of companies such as American Space Exploration Technology.
Data map: On June 30, 2018 local time, in Oshumachi, Hokkaido, Japan, the small rocket "MOMO2" developed and manufactured by a Japanese private company was launched just a few seconds later, the rocket crashed and burned.
Chen Jie also pointed out that, from the perspective of carrying capacity, even the new generation H3 rocket has a low geosynchronous transfer orbit (GTO) carrying capacity. The United States can reach 20 to 30 tons, and Japan has only 6.5 tons. "Heavyweight" satellites are directly related.
In terms of civil and commercial communications satellite technology, Japan has also reached world-class standards, but overall it is still behind Europe and the United States. Chen Jie explained that Japan’s navigation satellites are regional navigation satellite systems and have not yet achieved global coverage, which is still inferior to the US GPS system and the European Galileo system.
In terms of reconnaissance satellites, Japan has focused on building its own optical and radar intelligence collection satellite systems, and its capabilities have been continuously improved. However, compared with the United States and Europe, Japan still has deficiencies in satellite performance and processing capabilities.
In general, Japan has always wanted to develop the aerospace industry, expand the market size, and obtain more income, but also to provide greater momentum for the development of its own aerospace.
Data map: On June 30, 2018 local time, in Oshumachi, Hokkaido, Japan, the small rocket "MOMO2" developed and manufactured by a Japanese private company was launched just a few seconds later, the rocket crashed and burned.
A brief history of Japan's "space exploration" in the past decade
In May 2010, Japan's first Venus probe "Daybreak" was launched; in September, the quasi-zenith satellite "Guide" was launched.
year 2013
In September, the first new "Epsilon" rocket was launched.
Year 2014
In February, the main satellite implementing the "Global Precipitation Measurement Program" was launched; in December, Japan's second asteroid probe "Falcon 2" was launched.
2016
In February, Japan carried the "ASTRO-H" X-ray astronomical satellite to observe giant black holes and galaxy clusters.
2017
In January, the first communication satellite of the Ministry of Defense of Japan, "Huang 2", was launched, which allowed multiple self-defense forces of the land, sea and air to share information simultaneously; in November, the Japanese H3 new rocket engine "LE9" was unveiled.
2018
In January, Japan launched a satellite for "ultra-low orbit" operation; in February, Japan launched the world's smallest rocket "SS-520" Unit 5.
2019
In May, Japanese private enterprises successfully launched small rockets for the first time, and the "MOMO" No. 3 small rocket reached an altitude of about 110 kilometers.