4 months until the US presidential election New Corona changes the state of the election July 3 17:55
It's been four months until the US presidential election, where votes are cast on November 3. It will be noted whether the ruling or Republican President Trump who is aiming for re-election or the former Vice President Biden of the opposition and Democratic Party aiming to regain the government will win, but it is the new coronavirus that affects the whereabouts of the election campaign .. It is changing the face of the presidential election.
New Coronavirus on big issue
Responding to the effects of viruses has emerged as a major issue in elections.
President Trump calls the new coronavirus the "Chinese virus," emphasizing the responsibilities of China and the WHO = World Health Organization and trying to fend off criticisms of his own, while calling for a recovery of the depressed economy.
On the other hand, former Vice President Biden of the opposition party and the Democratic Party criticized that President Trump neglected the scientific advice of the experts and invited the spread of infection, and emphasized the attitude to attach importance to infection prevention measures. ..
Difference in assertion
The difference between these two claims is also reflected in the method of election campaigns of both parties.
Last month, President Trump held a large rally, which he had been holding back due to the spread of infection, for the first time in three months, saying that ``it will return to the highest economy in American history next year'', appealing for a revival. did.
President Trump may want to show momentum at the rally and draw the flow, and holding it in various places may give the impression that the United States is on the road to recovery.
By contrast, Mr. Biden is still holding a large gathering and holding events online.
Mr. Biden said at a press conference on the 30th of last month, "We will not hold a meeting because of the advice of experts for the country but not for myself" and declare that there will be no large meetings until the spread of infection subsides Did.
For Mr. Biden, by emphasizing the differences between President Trump and himself, it seems to be a strategy to receive dissatisfaction and anxiety about the government's infection control measures.
Differences in response to party conventions
The two sides have also shown differences in responding to party conventions, which is an important procedure for officially nominating party candidates for the November election.
The Trump camp Republicans are keen on hosting large-scale tournaments, and initially announced that they would change the venue to Florida when the North Carolina state governor, who was originally planning to hold the venue, demanded a reduction in scale due to infection control measures. did.
The Biden Democratic Party, meanwhile, has decided to hold the party convention for the first time in a virtual rally over the Internet.
How the differences between the two camps will appear in the eyes of voters, and the results will likely affect the whereabouts of the election.
Influence how elections are conducted
The spread of the new coronavirus is affecting the way presidential elections are conducted.
In the United States, a number of states are adopting postal voting to prevent infections, and the debate over its prosperity is intensifying.
Health officials recommend that voting be conducted while avoiding contact with people, and more than 60% of people in the opinion poll support the introduction of postal voting.
But President Trump strongly opposes that "postal voting is a hotbed of fraud."
In the background is an analysis of whether the postal vote favors Republicans or Democrats.
In the past presidential elections, there is a general view that higher voting rates will favor Democratic candidates, and President Trump seems to be wary of his own disadvantage.
On the other hand, the Democratic Party insists that the only way to protect democracy while preventing virus infection is to vote by mail.
However, regarding the postal voting, a study group at Stanford University announced that in April, the result was announced that even if the voting rate went up, it did not favor either the Republican Party or the Democratic Party, and the view is divided.
In addition, because post-infrastructure development such as post offices cannot catch up with the introduction on a national scale, Congress is discussing including a budget for the new coronavirus in economic measures.
However, the prospect of the establishment in the opposite of the Republican Party, which has received the intention of playing cards president is not standing, also followed political contested each other of both parties around the introduction.
Active discussions about wearing masks
In the United States, while the spread of infection has not stopped, debate over wearing masks is intensifying, and President Trump has changed his attitude from his negative attitude to wearing clothes in favor of him.
President Trump said in April that when the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) suggested that he should wear a mask, he said, "It is a voluntary measure, and I do not intend to do it." "I do not want to show my own mask figure to the media," said the company, who has been reluctant to wear it.
However, in response to the deterioration of the infection situation, Vice President Pence appeared in a mask at the tour destination on the 28th of last month and recommended to wear it. Recently, the leading Republican lawmakers have also been calling for wearing one after another.
Against this backdrop, President Trump said in an interview with the FOX Business Network on the 1st that he was not required to wear the mask all over the US, but he said, "I strongly support wearing a mask. If I can't keep my distance from others," I even wear a mask, and I've always done so," he said.
The background of the president and the Republican party coming to appeal for the wearing of masks is the difference in consciousness among the parties regarding infection control.
According to the results of public opinion polls such as ABC, which is investigating changes in consciousness about wearing masks in the United States, 55% of the respondents said that they wear masks when they go out It increased to 89% on the 25th. (ABC/IPSOS)
Looking at this by supporter political party
, 99% of Democratic Party supporters answered that they were "wearing" if they actually wore a mask when they went out for the past week. whereas to have to,
has become relatively low and 79% in the ▼ Republican supporters. (PEW) In
another poll last month, 86% of Democratic supporters said that they should always wear masks, compared to 52% of Republican supporters. (Huffington Post/YOU GOV)
Furthermore, in a survey last month that examined whether wearing a mask is a “public health choice” or “a choice related to individual freedom,”
▼82% of Democratic supporters said
▼ The above choices were answered, whereas only 52% of the Republican supporters answered that 42% were the choices regarding individual freedom.
The reason for this difference in consciousness is not clear, but in the United States, where the media attaches great importance to individual rights, some people consider wearing a mask as a symbol of restrictions on individual freedom, and denial of masculinity. , Tells an analysis that some people think that it represents cowardice. (PEW)
The difference in consciousness among the parties is also greatly different in the sense of caution regarding the spread of the infection, and as of 22nd of the month, those who replied that "the worst situation has already passed" are
23% of Democratic supporters. On the other hand,
▼Republican supporters accounted for 61%.
In many states where the spread of infection cannot be stopped, there are many conservative grounds, and it has been pointed out that such differences in consciousness among the factions may have an influence.
A Goldman Sachs economist released last month reports that if wearing a mask is mandatory in the U.S., it will reduce the number of infected people confirmed a day by 1 percentage point, resulting in a ban on going out again in the U.S. The controversy over the mask is developing into a promising anti-infection measure by President Trump, showing an analysis that avoids being abused and prevents GDP from decreasing by 5%.
Biden consistently leads polls
According to the analysis of the American political information site "Real Clear Politics", Mr. Biden has consistently since September last year on the average of the national opinion polls which support President Trump or former Vice President Biden. And leads.
The difference gradually widened from late May when protests against racial discrimination spread throughout the United States, and as of July 2,
▼ Mr. Biden was 49.3%
▼ President Trump was 40.0%, 9.3 points.
In the same 2016 poll of the previous election, Clinton's candidate at the time had a Trump of 4.5 points, which Biden is far ahead of.
In addition, looking at the confrontation states that influence the election results ▼
7.5 points in Michigan ▼
7 points in Pennsylvania ▼
6.5 points in Wisconsin ▼
6.4 points in Florida
▼ 3.5 points in Arizona President Trump won last time In each of these states, Biden leads, with Biden leading in both the United States and the Close Battle States.
However, Trump has reversed Clinton candidate who was consistently preceded by the opinion poll support rate in the last election in this election, and experts say that it is necessary to carefully analyze the trends of voters in the future ..
According to the results of a recent public opinion poll, U.S. experts have reluctantly supported the president after President Trump's bedrock supporters have remained firm, but the new coronavirus and black men have died.・It was pointed out that some Republicans and non-partisans are leaving Trump. He then suggested that re-election would be difficult without regaining the support of these people.
According to NHK interview with US election analyst NHK, "In recent polls both in the United States and in each state, Democratic opposition Biden has outstripped President Trump's approval rating. Mr Biden will easily win if an election is held."
Mr. Olsen cites President Trump's response to the new coronavirus and the death of a black man as the main factor, ``not by expressing calmness and stability and sympathy for the people, but by acting whimsically , The lack of capacity for the crisis has become apparent."
"Although there are no fluctuations in President Trump's rock supporters, who are called the base, some of the ruling party and the independents, who had been evaluating the president's work to a certain degree, are moving away to support Biden." I explained.
He added that "rock supporters alone cannot win. President Trump has lost the support of very important people in the last six weeks," he said. He said that it would be difficult to re-election if the support of the stratum is not regained.
On the other hand, Olsen has many people who dislike Clinton in the previous election four years ago, but Mr. Olsen dislikes Clinton in the opinion poll that Trump was led by Clinton in the approval rating, but finally won It is unpopular However, he pointed out that the current unpopular target is President Trump rather than Mr. Biden, and emphasized that it is different from the previous one.
He added, "Many voters who support Biden support him because he is not President Trump. Mr Biden himself is unattractive," and the strong opposition of voters to President Trump appears in favor of Mr Biden. I have analyzed.
Mr. Biden’s support moves within the Republican Party
Within the ruling and Republican parties, there is a movement not only to divide the cause with President Trump, but also to support Biden, an opposition and Democratic party, in order to prevent re-election.
Matt Borges, who headed the Republican State Commission in the Midwest Ohio from 2013 to 2017, was one of the interviewers this time.
Mr Boges has been a Republican for 30 years and has been on the scene supporting the election of successive Republican presidential candidates, including President Bush and Senator McCain.
In the previous 2016 presidential election, there were feuds against the behavior of President Trump, such as a remark that looked down on women, but in the hope of "changing things", the Republican State of Ohio, a close-knit state that influences the whereabouts of the election. He assisted Trump as chairman of the committee and contributed to the victory.
Mr Boges told President Trump, "I expected that if I became president, I would change my behavior and change it, but unfortunately it did not. It is far from the Republican values and conservative principles." He pointed out that he didn't see the changes he had expected as President.
Last month, Mr. Voges launched a political group called "Lightside PAC" to prevent President Trump's re-election, and started supporting the Democratic Party's Biden.
According to Boges, "Biden is more traditional than Republican than Trump," he said, saying that the name of the group included the claim that they were on the "right side" = "right side" that embodies the Republican philosophy. We support Mr. Biden, who is not a radical leftist," he explained, even if he is a candidate for the Democratic Party, he can support Mr. Biden.
The organization's home page states, "Trump's numerous failures have increased the number of dissatisfied Republican voters. Responses to the new coronavirus and racial problems have exacerbated dissatisfaction."
“It's a fundamental issue. It's a big departure from Republican values and conservative principles in respect of allies and the realization of free trade,” said Borges. Was unthinkable.” he questioned President Trump's qualities.
Through the activities of the group, Mr. Boges will promote Republican members who are dissatisfied with the current situation, especially in the confrontational states, to support Biden.
Group rebel against Republican Trump "What's so bad?"
A representative of the Republican party who opposes President Trump has told NHK that he is leaving the party following the spread of the new coronavirus and the death of a black man.
This group is "The Republican Opposition Against Trump" and was founded in May this year.
According to one of the representatives, Republican political analyst Sarah Longwell, the number of members joining the group is increasing, and 330 people posted a video message on the website appealing to Trump's re-election. doing.
On this, Mr Longwell said, "Many of the participants voted for Trump last time because he thought he wasn't an ordinary politician and did something different. But I think it's so bad. I didn't."
In addition, he said, "In particular, it became clear to people that they were not suitable for the president as they faced multiple crises such as the infection with the new coronavirus," and in response to the spread of the new coronavirus infection and the death of a black man. He expressed the view that there is a movement for secession within the party.
"I'm optimistic that there are a lot of Republican supporters who say they won't vote for Trump in the next presidential election, but there are cases like last time, so it's perfect until Trump loses. I cannot rest assured," he said, and will continue to step up efforts to prevent Trump's re-election.
Former aide of Trump "Not suitable for president"
In an interview with NHK, Anthony Scaramucci, a former spokeswoman for President Trump and a spokesman for the White House's public relations strategy, said in an interview with NHK that President Trump should have been deterred from being reelected.
Mr. Scaramucci, who was from New York same as President Trump, founded an investment company and made a fortune. Last time, he contributed a large amount of money to Mr. Trump's camp in the 2016 election to support the election campaign.
After Mr. Trump's election, he was involved in the preparation for the new administration as a member of the transition team, and was appointed as the White House's public relations manager, but he resigned on the 10th while the feud within the administration was disputed.
Mr. Scaramucci told President Trump, "I don't think that the administration of the government for the past three and a half years, the response to the crisis caused by the new coronavirus, and how to put pressure on allies are all correct for the United States. It defended the way of thinking and values, but now it's completely different," he argued, President Trump has changed.
"I know him for a long time and have a long relationship with him, because I know him well as a member of the transition team," he added. "It wasn't so funny 10 or 15 years ago. No. I think something broke in him. It might be due to power and pressure. I don't know what it is, but it's not suitable for the president."
He then said, "There are apparently unhealthy and decent human options. I choose the decent one." He said he would support Democratic party Biden in this election.
Mr. Scaramucci is financially supporting a political organization that supports Biden, and if the spread of the new coronavirus will subside in the future, he will go around the confrontation state and support Biden in order to prevent Trump's re-election. I would like to develop an appealing activity.
On the other hand, Mr. Biden's precedent in the poll was "It's too early. Don't be alarmed. I was in the Trump camp in the last election, but Mr. Trump's woman problem was revealed and the approval rating was Despite a significant drop, he has rebounded and won. He must fight through to the last day," he said, saying he is cautious that things could well change over the next four months. It was.
Trump’s approval rating is
According to the American political information site "Real Clear Politics," the average approval rating of President Trump in various polls was 41.5% as of the 2nd of this month.
Three days before that, it was 41.2% on the 29th of last month, which was 40.8%, which is the lowest level in 1 year and 4 months since February 6, last year.
According to the American media, "The number of people infected with the new coronavirus per day has reached the lowest level in the past year or more with more than 50,000 people infected each day."
President Trump's approval rating was 44.3% on January 27, 2017, when he was inaugurated, but it declined due to the medical insurance system reform of the former administration of Obama, response to so-called Obama care and suspicion in Russia, etc. It was the lowest on December 13 at 37.0%.
After that, the tax reform law, which had been a pledge as a pillar of economic policy, was enacted, and it started to rise. After 39.8% on March 7, 2018, it has remained in the 40% range.
And since October last year when the leader of the extremist organization IS = Islamic State was murdered, Supreme Baghdadi has gradually risen, and the highest level of 47.4% since assuming office as of April 1 when the infection of the new coronavirus spread I recorded it.
In the United States, when faced with a national crisis, the approval rating of the president tends to increase, which is considered to be due to this effect.
However, it has since declined, dropping 6 points in three months.
Meanwhile, a poll published by Pew Research Center last month showed that Trump's approval rating was 39%, already below 40%, of which Republican supporters were down 7 points compared to March. 78% and Democratic supporters fell 6 points to 6%, showing that the support for President Trump has declined in all supporters.