Two years after celebrating the victory, the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad faces another wave of unrest and popular revolt in light of the rapid collapse of the economy, so what has changed in just two years? How did victory turn into a disaster?
Foreign Policy magazine published an article by journalist Jonathan Speyer entitled "Trump's Policy in Syria Successful", in which he highlighted the impact of the policy the US administration has taken toward Syria to topple Bashar al-Assad's regime and turn that country into a swamp that Russia is failing to dissolve.
The article considered that the Trump administration's strategy on Syria succeeded in turning the victory of the Syrian president into ashes through calm and continuous pressure, and only what was left to persuade Russia to stop supporting the Assad regime, which was not achieved yet.
He pointed to some aspects of the crisis that the Syrian regime is going through, such as the limited popular revolt in Daraa Governorate, from which the first spark of the revolution against the Syrian regime started in 2011, and the stormy demonstrations in the city of Sweida, and the continuing rapid collapse in the country's economy.
Swamp policy
Many did not stop at the comment of US special envoy to Syria James Jeffrey, who said last May 12 that his mission was to turn Syria into a "quagmire for the Russians", but it became clear later that the purpose of those words was not only to convey a general feeling of opposing Russian plans In Syria, but rather a title that refers to a series of measures aimed at preventing the return to normal life in Syria under the rule of the Assad regime, and provoking renewed crises to transform the country from a gain for both Moscow and Tehran to a burden on them, according to the article.
The writer pointed out that the main means that Washington used to achieve the aforementioned goals was to strangle the Syrian economy, and had bet on Assad's urgent need for money to rebuild the war-torn country and the inability of his main allies, Russia and Iran, to provide financial assistance due to the difficult economic crises the two countries are going through. In light of the spread of the Corona virus, the collapse of oil prices and the economic sanctions imposed on Tehran, among other obstacles.
According to the United Nations, the cost of rebuilding Syria is estimated at 250 billion dollars, and this amount represents four times the GDP of Syria before the war.
Withholding funding
The writer pointed out that the urgent need for reconstruction and the absence of the necessary funding for that, for example, a means of pressure against the Assad regime, which the United States worked to create and employ tirelessly.
He explained that the Trump administration employed several means to pressure the Assad regime, including the formation of a united front between it and the European Union to prevent Syria from obtaining any funding for reconstruction, as long as the Syrian regime refuses to agree to a solution that guarantees a comprehensive and real political transition based on the United Nations Security Council Resolution 2254 And it is negotiated by the various parties to the Syrian conflict.
This means that Washington says that as long as Bashar al-Assad refuses to negotiate his departure, his regime will not receive any funding.
The United States also worked to block any economic outlets that Assad could resort to, through the sanctions known as the Caesar Law, which entered into force on June 17, and is expected to tighten the screws further on the Syrian regime.
Prevent the lion's victory
The article pointed out that the United States is working to prevent a final military victory for the regime, despite talking about the end of the war, Assad and his allies control only about 60% of Syria.
While the Syrian and Turkish opposition controls 15% of the Syrian territory, the areas recently under their control have begun to use the Turkish lira instead of the Syrian lira, whose value has decreased greatly, and the pro-US Syrian Democratic Forces, led by the Kurds, control the remaining 25% of the Syrian territory .
The United States supported Turkey in its attack by the Syrian regime and Russian forces in March this year, and contrary to the tweet of US President Donald Trump announcing America's intention to withdraw its forces from Syria in October 2019, the American forces It still exists in the Kurdish-controlled region.
According to the author, the primary goal of the Trump administration's Syria policy, led by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, is to ensure the Assad regime agrees to a comprehensive ceasefire that will allow negotiations to begin on the political future of the country, and it hopes that this will assist in organizing free elections that result in Assad leaving power .
Unless this is achieved, tension will continue in Syria, and Washington will continue to increase or reduce economic pressure according to the extent of the Assad regime and Syria's cooperation with what it seeks.