Coronavirus: IMF predicts severe recession in sub-Saharan Africa

Text by: Stanislas Ndayishimiye

African countries are gradually easing the measures taken last March to stop the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic. Most of them are reopening some of their borders, but as a whole, sub-Saharan Africa could see its income drop to its levels of ten years ago, according to Abebe Aemro Selassie, Africa director of the International Monetary Fund.

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According to the latest projections from the International Monetary Fund published at the end of June, the economy of sub-Saharan Africa will suffer a 3.2% recession this year. This contraction would be even more severe than the forecasts made in April which were only 1.6%. Even if Africa is still the least infected continent, the pandemic could accelerate, jeopardizing the response efforts against Covid-19 deployed in the countries of the region.

In the past two months, the IMF has provided more than $ 10 billion in emergency aid to 29 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Among them, 21 also benefited from the moratorium on debt owed to international public donors.

►Also read: Coronavirus: AfDB chief fears a “social crisis” in Africa

Rebound from 2021

The Washington-based financial institution returns optimism to next year. Measured optimism: the IMF is indeed counting on a recovery in growth, but in a good number of countries south of the Sahara, the increase will not be enough to bring GDP back to its 2019 level. economies dependent on the primary sector or tourism will struggle to recover, at least during the first months after the epidemic.

"  This is a truly worrying image, in terms of economic prospects, which reflects the persistent weakness of the global economic environment facing countries  " of sub-Saharan Africa, said Abebe Aemro Sélassié, Africa director of the IMF.

In addition to the pandemic, other risks are blurring the horizon and clouding the economic outlook, starting with the temporary nature of the trade agreement concluded between the United States and China last January. Even if the entire African continent represents only a tiny share in international trade - less than 5% - the trade disputes between the United States and China, as well as the American threat of new taxes on European products could hamper the recovery of the global economy. And this "  tense geopolitical environment (...) will also have repercussions on the region  ". 

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• Economy
• Africa
• Coronavirus