Emmanuel Macron at the G5 Sahel summit in Mauritania

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G5 Sahel leaders and the French president will meet on Tuesday, June 30, for a summit in Nouakchott, Mauritania. It is the first trip outside Europe for Emmanuel Macron since the Covid-19 crisis, an "additional sign of solidarity", according to the Élysée Palace.

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Also participating in this meeting are Moussa Faki Mahamat, for the African Union, and Louise Mushikiwabo, for the OIF, as is the Spanish Prime Minister, Pedro Sanchez. The discussions will then be extended by videoconference to Italian and German leaders. This will be an opportunity to take stock of the strategy launched, almost six months ago, during the last meeting in Pau, in the south-west of France. A semester which, from the French point of view, was favorable for Operation Barkhane.

When France and its Sahelian partners met in Pau on January 13, the atmosphere was not optimistic after several months of difficulties on the ground. Emmanuel Macron will then ask his counterparts to confirm their support for the French commitment, during this meeting which will often pass, in Sahelian public opinion, for an  Elysian "  convocation " of African leaders.

In Pau, priorities have also been defined against an enemy, the Islamic State in the Grand Sahara (EIGS), and in one region, that of the "  three borders  " (Mali, Niger, Burkina).

Six months later, if the gains are "  fragile  ", the state of mind is quite different and we do not hesitate to tell the presidential cabinet that "  victory is possible  " in the Sahel.

The Barkhane force has changed its mode of action

Reinforced by 500 men, the Barkhane mission has multiplied operations and modified its mode of action.

Thus, to dislodge terrorist groups, it was decided that there would now be fewer patrols made up of heavy and slow convoys - targets of artisanal mines - but rather a long-term presence, what the military calls " permanentization "   " In fact, the legionaries of the 2nd REP were designated to hang on to the ground, in total autonomy, an extremely rustic engagement, over several weeks and solidly coordinated with the regional armies, as had been decided last January.

After months of efforts, the results are there, ensures the staff which indicates that in recent months, several hundred terrorists have been neutralized including prominent leaders, like Abdelmalek Droukdel, the leader d'Aqmi, killed on June 3.

In the “  three borders  ” area, the grip on local forces has gradually loosened. The principle of uncertainty "has been reversed," rejoice those in charge of operations, stressing that from now on, the Barkhane force and its allies have become unpredictable for armed terrorist groups.

From now on, Paris also wants a "  consolidation  " of military gains via concrete advances on the autonomy of national armies, on the redeployment of States in unstable areas and on the concretization of targeted development projects.

Many challenges in the region

France denies being "  shy  " in denouncing human rights violations, but the Minusma and NGOs document, by the hundreds, extrajudicial abuses in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso.

To respond to this, Paris gives priority to joint operations, in order to avoid the autonomous actions of national armies, always described as "fragile", and hopes for an increasing European implication in the training and the deployment of magistrates to allow penal consequences. .

Another challenge is that of mobilizing the international community. On the military side, the European Takuba operation still lacks partners.

On the development side, the Coalition for the Sahel, launched in Pau, must support more targeted, more visible and more effective projects.

On the political level, with the crisis in Mali, the implementation of the Algiers agreements is at a standstill, while Burkina enters an electoral cycle which gives rise to fear, there too, of a "floating" which worries Paris.

It remains to be seen how the jihadist groups will respond to the pressure of the past few months, how Aqmi will reorganize after the death of Abdelmalek Droukdel, whether his conflict with the EIGS will continue or whether the attack on Kafolo augurs well for an attempt perennial to harm further south.

Two priorities not to be overlooked

What should we expect from this summit of a few hours which brings together the G5 countries and their partners in the international community? For Alain Antil, director of the Sub-Saharan Africa center at the French Institute for International Relations (IFRI), there are several priorities, including two that are important to remember.

There are two problems that have accelerated in recent months. It is that of abuses against civilians by the National Armed Forces. This is a point - if it is not resolved quickly - that will make matters worse. The second point - which is just as delicate to tackle - is that of the misappropriation of military budgets and bribes paid during arms contracts.

Alain Antil

Marie-Pierre Olphand

► Read also: Barkhane: will the presidents of the G5 Sahel respond to Macron's invitation?

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• Emmanuel Macron
• Mauritania
• G5 Sahel
• France