• Confcommercio: consumption still falling sharply in May, -30%
  • Visco: uncertainty forecasts, well-constructed plan needed. GDP 2020 around -20%
  • Raise. Gualtieri announces a new budget variance by July
  • Istat, consumer and business confidence is rising again. Consumption is falling, the race for savings

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June 28, 2020 The restart is not enough to recover lost consumption. Despite the reopening of businesses from May, the balance sheet for the first six months of the year still remains strongly negative, with an average drop in expenditure estimated at -1,879 euros per family. This is what emerges from the calculations conducted by Confesercenti. The data is the synthesis of the different impacts on the territory. The contraction in spending is in fact greater in the high-income northern regions and in those most affected by the emergency: Trentino (-2,227 euros per household), Lombardy (-2,214), Emilia-Romagna (-2,153), Tuscany (- 2,070), Veneto (-2,042 euros). Losses above the national average are also recorded in Valle d'Aosta (-1,994 euros of spending per family), Lazio (-1,962 euros), Piedmont (-1,902 euros) and Friuli (-1,883 euros). The drop in spending in the remaining central and southern regions is lower than the average - although always substantial - Calabria is the one to record the least loss, however of -1,294 euros.

The drop in spending is mainly due to the stop of activities during the acute phase of the Covid-19 emergency, but also to the prudence shown by families in the recovery period. If before the crisis the average saving was 8 euros per 100, now we have reached 11, with a consequent increase in savings: in 2020 the Italians accumulated 32 billion more bank deposits (+ 20%) than in 2019, driven from the situation of uncertainty. 

8% of receptive businesses will not reopen
The consumption stop linked to the coronavirus emergency "was heard in particular by the administration and hospitality sector, the so-called Horeca: 8% of businesses will not reopen, 61.5% report problems of liquid assets". This is what emerges from the latest survey by Confesercenti, which denounces a "very strong" impact also in trade, in which 51.3% of SMEs have lost half their turnover. "A rapid restart of household spending is crucial, especially if we consider that the Italian GDP depends for a large part on internal consumption", comments the president of the association Patrizia De Luise. "For this reason, we believe that the possibility of a temporary VAT cut should be seriously discussed, at least for the sectors in greatest suffering. A selective and 'timed' cut - he says - would be useful to support the demand in this phase of due to the temporary nature of the price reduction, urging consumers to anticipate purchases, a driving force obtained without upsetting the budget too much: the current drop in consumption will inevitably also lead to a reduction in VAT revenue. context, the cut in rates, especially if clearly defined in its intervention, time and sector limits, would not aggravate the situation too much and would not frighten the markets. At the end of the emergency, we could instead concentrate resources on a real tax reform, which will the current tax inequities and stimulate growth and work, starting from the revision of the personal income tax ".