For Jérôme Fourquet, director of the opinion and business strategies department of the FIFG, guest of Europe 1 on Friday morning, the second round of the municipal elections should be marked by a strong abstention, three months after the contested first round, despite a specific health protocol. 

INTERVIEW

More than three months after the disputed first round was held on March 15, the second round of municipal elections is to be held on Sunday. But will the French go to the polls, when the first round had been marked by a tumble in participation (44.3% in the first round)? Nothing is less certain, according to Jérôme Fourquet, director of the opinion and business strategies department of the FIFG, guest of Europe 1 Friday, for whom the latter "have no head in the elections". 

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The memory of the first round still in the minds of the voters

"The first round was marked by a spectacular abstention, up almost 20 points compared to the municipal elections in 2014," said the pollster. A record abstention which was explained in particular by the context of the coronavirus epidemic. "The fear was already very palpable in the population," says Jérôme Fourquet, noting that this fear "is still partly present today". This is why, he anticipates, "some of the voters who turned away from the polls three months ago will repeat this behavior". "At the FIFG, the figures tell us that we might have an abstention in the municipalities concerned which could grab 3-4 additional points compared to March 15", continues the guest of Europe 1. 

"Several months" between the two calls to the polls 

According to him, fear of the virus will not be the only explanation for this strong abstention to come. "There is a manifest lack of interest which is explained by this extraordinary calendar", he analyzes, with "more than three months between the first and the second round". 

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A municipal campaign "completely hidden"

Besides, except in a few municipalities, "the countryside has been completely concealed".And after long weeks marked by the health crisis, but also the confinement, "the French do not have their heads in the elections. We are thinking of the holidays, at the end of confinement, at the risk of a possible second wave", says again Jérôme Fourquet.