The United States and Iran are competing for influence in Iraq, as they seek to win the government and the people in general.
A veteran American analyst considered that Iran's influence in Iraq does not threaten American security and that there are no justifications for the presence of thousands of American soldiers there.
Charles Pena, a senior analyst at the Defense Prisons Foundation, says that Iran has sought to increase its influence in Iraq since the United States toppled Saddam Hussein's regime in 2003, and it is ironic that Saddam was a counterweight to Iran in the region.
And Iran, as a country neighboring Iraq, will always have geographical, ethnic, cultural and religious ties, as well as economic relations, as the volume of trade between the two countries is estimated at 12 billion dollars, with plans to bring it to 20 billion.
He says in a report published by the American National First, the important question that must be asked is, does Iran's influence in Iraq undermine US national security? In his opinion, the answer is "no".
In justifying his answer, Charles Pena, who has more than 25 years of experience in supporting the US Department of Defense and Security as a policy and program analyst, said Iran is not a direct military threat to the United States.
A military comparison
supports his view that the Pentagon's budget for fiscal year 2020 is $ 738 billion, which equals one and a half times the size of Iran's total economy. And the ratio of US military spending to Iranian military spending is 50 to one.
With regard to the actual military capabilities, the American analyst sees that Iran dwindles a lot compared to the United States, as the United States has one million and 300 thousand military personnel on active duty compared to the military in Iran, whose number does not exceed 500 thousand. The US Air Force also has more than 1,400 combat aircraft, compared to the number 350 in Iran.
As for the US Navy, it includes more than 400 ships, including aircraft carriers, cruisers and destroyers. Iran also has about 400 ships, but there is a big difference between the types of these ships. There are no Iranian aircraft carriers and the majority of ships in the Iranian navy are small patrol vessels.
And Charles Pena adds that the US military is the most modern army in the world, which is the most advanced and technologically advanced, while many Iranian planes are decades-old fighters, dating back to the era of the former Soviet Union as well as US planes dating back to the seventies of the last century.
He notes that while the US Navy can operate anywhere in the world, the Iranian Navy can only operate on a regional scale.
This means that the US military is far superior to the Iranian army. In addition, Iran does not have the ability to reach its army in America.
A nuclear Iran
In the event that "Iran becomes a nuclear power", the American analyst made clear that it would not pose a threat to America because it does not have ballistic missiles capable of delivering it to America.
He adds that although Iran launched a military satellite into orbit, and is making progress in acquiring the ability of intercontinental ballistic missiles, the longest ballistic missile has a "Shahab 3" and has a range of about 800 miles, which is much shorter than the distance of more than three thousand miles required The extent of the ICBM, not to mention that Iran is aware that the use of any nuclear weapon against the United States will likely face devastating retaliation.
Is Iran a terrorist?
In response to another question posed by "Charles Pena", which is: "Does Iran not pose a terrorist threat?"
He says that Iran supports the Lebanese Hezbollah, which is classified as an American terrorist organization threatening Israel, indicating that it is not a threat to the United States. The party has not attacked American targets since the 1980s, when it bombed the American embassy and Marines barracks in Lebanon in retaliation for the American presence there.
On the relationship with the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda organizations, the American analyst stated that Iran had never had strong ties with Al-Qaeda, did not support al-Qaeda's attacks against the United States and had already worked to expel the Islamic State from Iraq.
Charles Pena concludes that if Iran is not a threat to US national security, then its influence in Iraq also does not threaten US national security.
On this basis, the American analyst does not see a necessary reason for the survival of about 5 thousand American soldiers in Iraq, as the United States has accomplished its main mission in Iraq, which is the elimination of the Islamic State.
Charles Pena indicated that US President Donald Trump himself believes that it is time to hand over the fight against the remnants of the Islamic State to Iran, Iraq and Syria.