The US-made Aegis Ashore missile defense deployment plan in Japanese Akita and Yamaguchi Prefectures was finally canceled by the Japanese government. This was stated by Minister of Defense Taro Kono, speaking at a meeting of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on security issues.

“After a discussion at the Japanese Security Council, we decided to cancel the deployment of (Aegis Ashore. - RT coastal defense systems ) in Yamaguchi and Akita prefectures,” Kono told a group of lawmakers from the ruling party, citing the outcome of a closed meeting of the Japanese Security Council, chaired by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

  • Japanese Minister of Defense Taro Kono
  • Reuters
  • © Evgenia Novozhenina

The Minister explained that the Aegis missile defense systems deployed on the ships of the Navy will protect the state from possible threats from the DPRK. At the same time, according to him, relying entirely on sea-based systems is not a good idea. In addition, the previously deployed Patriot Advanced Capability-3 ABM system is not able to fully protect the country.

Given the presence of new ballistic missiles in Beijing and Pyongyang, Tokyo should consider possible options for responding to such threats, the head of the Japanese defense department emphasized.

In this case, as reported by the Japanese agency Kyodo News, the governors of the prefectures of Yamaguchi and Akita have already thanked the government for the decision not to deploy ground-based missile defense systems.

Alternative potential

Recall that the decision of the Japanese authorities to suspend the deployment of ground-based missile defense systems became known as early as June 15. As the Minister of Defense told reporters then, the decision was made taking into account the cost and terms of deployment of these systems. The minister also explained then that Tokyo was also forced to stop the program because of fears that the booster stages of missile defense could harm residential areas.

Earlier, the Japanese side, in collaboration with American partners, carried out a modification of the software systems, but to ensure that the steps fell only within the base, failed, explained Taro Kono.

  • Shinzo Abe
  • © Rodrigo Reyes Marin / Pool via REUTERS

At the same time, when Tokyo has finally abandoned its plans to deploy American Aegis Ashore ground-based missile defense systems, the authorities will have a difficult search for alternatives to protect against North Korean missiles, Kyodo News notes.

Previously, the Japanese government was thinking about deploying THAAD systems in the country, but abandoned this idea of ​​the plan because of the high cost of the project.

Also, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party of Japan is of the opinion that Tokyo should direct its efforts to obtain strike means in order to destroy the bases of a possible enemy if necessary. According to LDP members, in a situation where countries such as North Korea are improving their technology, missile defense missiles may be ineffective.

“We need to consider various deterrence options to prevent outside missile attacks,” said, in particular, Itsunori Onodera, head of the Liberal Democratic Party’s National Security Research Committee.

According to experts, from a technical point of view, the idea of ​​creating Japan's strike weapons could well be realized, despite the fact that, according to the basic law, a country should not have such weapons in its arsenal.

“Despite formal restrictions, Japan has long been engaged in the development of a full-fledged army. For example, the country's navy today is a formidable force, the ground forces are expanding, and rearmament is being carried out. Japan has territorial and other disputes with a number of countries, including China, both Korea and Russia, so Tokyo is interested in creating a strong army, ”military expert Yuri Knutov said in an interview with RT.

Valery Kistanov, head of the Center for Japanese Studies at the Institute of the Far East of the Russian Academy of Sciences, holds a slightly different point of view.

“Discussions that Japan should have the potential for a preemptive strike on enemy bases have been ongoing for a long time. It is understood that the DPRK nuclear missile arsenals may pose a threat. However, the receipt of such weapons by the Japanese military will mean that Japan violates its own constitution, in addition, a threat to Russia and China will be created. Therefore, while the matter does not go beyond conversations, ”the expert explained in a comment to RT.

Reasonable Sufficiency

It is worth noting that the Japanese government made the decision to deploy two Aegis Ashore missile defense systems in Japan in 2017. As it was reported then, for each complex Tokyo was supposed to pay approximately $ 889 million. According to the initial plan, the systems were planned to be deployed before the end of 2023 in two prefectures. As the head of the Japanese Ministry of Defense stated then (Itsunori Onodera held this post at that time. - RT ), not only ballistic but also cruise missiles should become potential targets of the complexes.

The decision was made against the backdrop of a serious aggravation of the situation on the Korean Peninsula and a series of nuclear missile tests conducted by the DPRK. 

As stated in 2017 by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the country needs to deploy missile defense because of the threat posed by the DPRK.

  • The alleged launch of a DPRK ballistic missile from a submarine
  • © KCNA via REUTERS

“Since further provocative actions by North Korea are not ruled out, we intend to continue to make every effort to protect citizens, relying on the alliance of Japan and the USA,” the politician emphasized. 

The Aegis missile defense system operates on the basis of the Aegis Weapon System (AWS), a combat information management system (CMS), developed in the 1980s. Initially, the Aegis missile defense system was created as a sea-based system; the maximum range of the SM-3 Block IB missiles used by it is 700 km.

In the future, the range of the complex can be expanded to 2.5 thousand km. Such characteristics, in particular, are declared for the SM-3 Block IIA anti-missile, which is at the test stage. 

In April 2019, the Ministry of Defense of Japan announced the signing of a contract with the American side to acquire two Aegis Ashore missile defense systems for 139.9 billion yen, or about $ 1.26 billion at the current exchange rate. Under the terms of the contract, this amount was supposed to cover both the supply of weapons and the cost of training personnel. However, the cost of the auxiliary radar station was not included in the transaction.

It should be noted that the idea of ​​deploying land-based missile defense systems in Japan provoked indignation among the population of the prefectures in which it was planned to launch the work of the complexes. Locals feared that electromagnetic radiation from systems could adversely affect their health. In addition, citizens feared that the missile defense systems would become the target for a retaliatory strike by the enemy in the event of a military conflict. 

The plans of Tokyo and Washington for the deployment of Aegis Ashore missile defense systems were also of concern to the countries neighboring with Japan - Russia and China.

So, in 2019, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced that plans to deploy American missile defense systems in Japan were troubling Moscow.

“We reiterated our concern about the risks posed to our security, including in connection with plans to deploy elements of the global missile defense of the United States in Japanese territory,” Lavrov said, commenting on the results of the meeting of the heads of the foreign affairs and defense departments of Russia and Japan.

Commenting in mid-June on Tokyo’s refusal to acquire a US missile defense program, the Russian foreign minister explained that Moscow would like to clarify the situation before taking any steps. At the same time, the issue of deploying missile defense in Japan affects the entire military-political balance in the region.

“We here, as in Europe, as in the Euro-Atlantic region, consider it important to develop a dialogue on reasonable sufficiency regarding those weapons that the countries of the region are deploying on their territory and especially not on their territory,” Lavrov said after a telephone conversation with the supreme EU Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell.

“Doesn't want to escalate the relationship”

According to analysts, refusing a contract for the supply of American missile defense, Japan follows considerations of a political rather than technical nature.

“It's not about the technical points, these conversations are just cover. In fact, Japan simply does not want to escalate relations with Russia, and also become a potential target for it. The fact is that the Aegis Ashore complex is capable of producing not only anti-missiles, but also long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles that can carry a nuclear warhead. And the Russian fundamentals of nuclear policy say that the deployment by other countries of missile defense systems, medium and shorter range cruise and ballistic missiles is a threat to Russia, ”said military expert Viktor Litovkin in a conversation with RT.

  • Sergey Lavrov
  • RIA News
  • © Alexander Shcherbak

On June 2, 2020, President Vladimir Putin signed a decree approving the foundations of Russia's state policy in the field of nuclear deterrence.

"The Japanese government has worked out common sense, so they refused to deploy American missile defense systems on their land, although US-Japanese relations remain close," the expert explained, adding that existing sea-based missile defense systems are quite sufficient to protect against DPRK missiles in Japan .

There were many reasons for curtailing plans for the deployment of Aegis Ashore, Valery Kistanov believes.

“These are technical issues, the high cost of the complexes, and political reasons - the friction between Tokyo and the Trump administration. The latter puts forward the conditions for the US military to stay in the region on the Japanese side, demands an increase in fees for this, such information has already been leaked to the media. Trump puts pressure on partners in the trade sector, demanding to reduce the trade deficit. It’s possible that all this bothered the Japanese side, ”the expert admitted.

Speaking about how the decision of the Japanese government can affect Russian-Japanese relations, Kistanov suggested that Tokyo might return in the future to the idea of ​​deploying American missile defense systems.

“However, if the refusal becomes the final decision, it will positively affect the relations between Tokyo and Moscow. Russia considers such complexes as part of the global missile defense system, which Washington is building to level Russia's nuclear potential. I believe that Japan’s refusal from American missile defense can be a positive factor in the Russian-Japanese dialogue on a peace treaty, ”the expert summed up.