• Galicia.The CIS predicts a comfortable victory for Feijóo, which would reinforce its absolute majority on 12-J
  • Basque Country.The CIS increases the PNV's advantage in the Basque Country and rules out the collapse of Podemos
  • 12-J.Casado and Inés Arrimadas finalize a joint meeting in Euskadi to claim the alliance of PP and Cs

Still overwhelmed by the management of the health crisis and its consequences, with little time left, the Basque and Galician elections are falling on the Government and the PSOE. As if on a table full of pages to read and work to do, hundreds of other pages are placed on top. And, in addition, with the country still waking up in the so-called new normal, fearful of outbreaks and Ferraz at medium gas.

It does not seem the ideal time for an electoral appointment, but the party and the Executive have been activated in just a few days to put up a fight in a campaign that is the first test for the Government about its reaction to the coronavirus pandemic and its economic effects and social. A first test that socialists face convinced of the endorsement of their response to the crisis, the differences with what happened in 2008, and their certainty that "we have not left anyone behind." The message is that there are two ways to respond to an economic crisis -even if its causes are different- the labor reform of the PP "everyone on the street" and the ERE or ERTE and the minimum vital income.

This approach has already been discussed in the Federal Policy Council, which in mid-May brought together the President of the Government and Secretary General of the PSOE, Pedro Sánchez, in a telematic meeting with his territorial barons . And in these weeks it has not changed. This Thursday, the PSdeG candidate for the presidency of the Xunta, Gonzalo Caballero , raised the appointment on July 12 exactly in these terms: "There are two elements that are going to confront each other in these elections: a conservative model, of cuts, exhausted , who wants to use Galicia to confront the Government of Spain, and a progressive, advance, social democratic government, to make the best policies to get out of the crisis and to defend public services. "

This is the dilemma that the PSOE wants to open in Galicia and that anticipates the roots of a future campaign of the generals, for as long as it remains for this electoral appointment. In the Basque Country, the confrontation is not so virulent because the PSE governs in coalition with the PNV and its purpose is to continue doing so, with a slight rise in seats - the CIS predicts in its pre-election poll that it will go from nine seats to between 11 and 13-, that allows him to expand his weight in the Executive and occupy more councils (now he manages three). This collaboration also allows the Government to maintain the PNV as a priority partner in Congress.

In this sense, Galicia is the most interesting electoral competition for socialists, despite the fact that polls give Alberto Núñez Feijóo a new absolute majority. The only opportunity for the PSdeG is that it is not enough to lead a "Progress Executive" with the rest of the progressive and nationalist forces, Galicia in Common Podemos and the BNG.

With these objectives, the president and his ministers will turn to the Galician and Basque campaign. Sánchez will travel to both territories in the two remaining weekends until the July 12 elections. This Saturday he will be in Orense and on Sunday in San Sebastián . And there will be at least one minister every day throughout the campaign.

The PSOE comes out to fight, especially in Galicia, despite the polls. And it clings to two circumstances. That "to the tail, everything is a bull", they point out in Ferraz, referring to the fact that the vote is decided, more and more, during the days of the campaign. And the major doubts at this time about the mobilization. How many people might not go to vote for fear of coronavirus infection? This affects everyone but also Feijóo.

In the socialist leadership they also see a danger for the PP in the campaign that the president of the Xunta has raised. Because if Feijóo has seen his management underpinned by the Covid-19 crisis, they argue, that means that the communities had the powers and there is no room for the criticism that Pablo Casado makes of the Government. Or that if the Galician president was right, then the president of the Community of Madrid was wrong.

In this climate the Galician and Basque campaigns begin, with the PSOE focused on assimilating the PP with Vox and that this speech weakens Feijóo. This Thursday, at a rally in San Sebastián, Vice President Carmen Calvo assured that in the face of this health crisis, the popular decided to "support" this party instead of the Government, in reference to the fact that they did not support the last three extensions of the state of alarm.

PP, two opposing campaigns

The PP faces with some optimism the campaign of the Basque and Galician elections. Although the prospects are not the best in the Basque Country -after an internal crisis whose wound has not yet healed-, the popular believe that they can save the furniture. And in Galicia, jewel in the crown of the PP, they have a solid leadership and an absolute majority that the surveys even extend.

It is, in both cases, a maintenance campaign. If in Galicia the objective is to preserve at all costs the absolute majority of Alberto Núñez Feijóo, in the Basque Country the PP would be content to continue having a relevant position in the Parliament of Vitoria, since the polls predict a notable drop in the number of seats, despite closing a coalition with Ciudadanos.

The PP has its best hopes in Galicia. "Feijóo's fourth absolute majority is essential to build Casado's victory," says a national leader. Not surprisingly, a comfortable victory for the baron of PP barons would reinforce the story of Casado, who seeks to position the PP as an eminently "managerial" party. But it would also awaken the voices that ask for a national turn similar to that of Feijóo ... or even his landing in Madrid.

But the Basque event also has a crucial component for the future of Casado, since it is the first examination for the coalition with Ciudadanos, and an essay for the national "recast" of the center-right. If there are two ways to reach that goal, they are these: that of agglutinating the vote, like Feijóo, and that of uniting the initials, like Carlos Iturgaiz .

The Basque PP and Cs candidacy travels in the opposite direction to the Galician one. It has perspectives just as unfavorable as those of the defendant Alfonso Alonso. If the former Basque PP leader was predicted five seats in Genoa, now the new coalition candidate is being polled by six internal polls managed by the national leadership. Very far from the current nine. The votes fly to the PNV. It is something that the popular Basques consulted do not hide . Some do not believe that they exceed five seats. "Or four," resigns another prominent popular .

Hence, Casado is going to overturn, along with some of the main national leaders of the PP in supporting the candidacy of PP-Cs in Euskadi. The PP president - who in Galicia and the Basque Country will carry out two twin campaigns in intensity, but dissimilar in approach - has planned four additional acts to the one he already starred in in Bilbao this Monday and this Thursday in Renteria with the candidate. And he is considering closing the campaign in Ermua , the land of Miguel Ángel Blanco , but it is not closed.

The PP wants the cherry on top of their campaign to be an act with Inés Arrimadas, who tries to celebrate in Guernica as a "constitutionalist" claim against the apparent hegemony of the PNV and the demonstrative rise of Bildu. Furthermore, by the way, that act should underpin the coalition between the oranges and the popular ones .

The speech against Bildu will be very present in the Iturgaiz y Casado campaign. The PP president asked this Thursday for unity against terrorism and in favor of the victims, and not "to approve those who do not condemn ETA," reports Belén Ferreras .

This electoral body, the first with Ciudadanos, is more intended as a prelude to the "recast" than as a vehicle to improve the result in the Basque Country. "Unfortunately, Cs does not contribute much to us here; this is the first step in a national strategy," acknowledge the same sources of the Basque PP.

If Galicia represents the PP of Mariano Rajoy and the managerial itch, the Basque Country is the ideological reserve of the PP of essences, closest to José María Aznar. "The heart of the PP", as Casado often repeats. So, while Rajoy will be the main guest star in the Feijóo campaign, Basque PP sources assure that no invitation has been issued to former President Aznar. Several PP leaders agree that 12-J will measure, symbolically, two souls of the party: the Marianists and the Aznarists . But only in the story, because Casado will have one foot in each campaign.

This Saturday, it will go down to the arena of the bullring of Pontevedra, which will be symbolically empty in full outbreaks of coronavirus. Feijóo has everything in his favor to come out on his shoulders. Iturgaiz would settle for not leaving the infirmary.

Vox, to plug the flight of votes to Feijóo

Vox arrives at the campaign of the Galician and Basque elections immersed in uncertainty and trying to remove the pessimism that surrounds him. Undoubtedly, these are the most swampy elections for the formation of Santiago Abascal due to different factors: his lack of territorial implantation, the shallowness of his message or the lack of powerful candidates. A combination that threatens to break the successful electoral cycle that began with the Andalusians in 2018 and that had its milestone in November 2019, when it became the third national party in Congress.

The photo can now be that of the backspace. Or the one with the puncture. The maximum aspiration in Galicia and the Basque Country is to enter at least one seat in Parliament, but even that objective does not seem feasible today, since both communities form with Navarra the podium of the three autonomies where Vox obtained its worst results in the general elections. In neither of them does she have even a single councilor.

It is clear that the Basque Country, because it is Abascal's native land, has a strong sentimental value for Vox, as well as being a strategic enclave against nationalism; but with the permission of the Basque Country, the main focus of the party's attention is on Galicia. And it is that the whole panorama would totally change if Vox achieved a representation that was decisive for Alberto Núñez Feijóo to achieve an absolute majority against the tripartite party of the left and independence. This would make the party a determining force with a voice.

Hence, all the weight of the campaign will focus on presenting Vox as the guarantor that Feijóo does not deviate. In the "vigilante" that the PP leader does not flirt with "the left and nationalism." The problem for Vox is that Feijóo has made Galicia the only place in Spain that holds together the space that first broke in two, with Ciudadanos, and then in three, with Vox.

You only have to look at the guts of the CIS to see how this affects Vox. 64% of those who voted for Abascal in 2019 will do so for Feijóo now and only 24.1% will remain faithful. It is only one in four, an alarming figure for which the CIS estimates that it will have no deputy. In addition, the opinion on Feijóo is excellent. 83% of Vox voters prefer that the Xunta preside, as 33% believe that they have done "very good" and 40.6% "good". To turn this gloomy scenario around, Abascal will almost have the role of candidate and will multiply the acts.

We can "bridge" between the PSOE and nationalism

Paradoxical situation for Podemos. A party that claims to be multinational, faces two complicated electoral appointments in Galicia and the Basque Country, which threaten to provoke indigestion. With adverse electoral surveys, Podemos undertakes the strategy of wanting to seal tripartites with the PSOE and the nationalists, seeking to secure a share of power and thus make up for a possible fall.

The PSOE and the nationalists of the BNG in Galicia and Bildu in the Basque Country are the partners that Podemos wants to try to unseat the PP and the PNV, respectively. Pablo Iglesias seeks to weave a communicating vessel between the communities and Congress: transfer the agreements that sustain the coalition government to the communities, so that this type of tripartite, in turn, can give greater stability to a decimated and weak parliamentary Executive .

As a background, there is also the fact that the surveys predict possible falls of Podemos in these communities. The pre-electoral CIS leaves in Galicia the coalition led by the purple ones with 4-6 deputies, compared to 14 in the last elections. A situation that does not affect its intended partners is not a general evil of the "progressive space" as defined by the purple ones: the PSG would rise four seats, up to 18; while the BNG would go from six to 14.

As for the Basque Country, the CIS has provided oxygen for Podemos, giving it a similar result to that it had, compared to the latest surveys published in recent days, which reflected a more pronounced drop. The center led by José Félix Tezanos does not penalize Podemos: it maintains that it would repeat the 11 seats in 2016 and even aspire to achieve one more parliamentarian than then.

In both Galicia and the Basque Country a maxim prevails: to be a "bridge" between the PSOE and the nationalists. That is, become a lever to articulate pacts. Being the interlocutor, as already happens many times in Madrid, between both parties. Pave roads. Something that although it seemed impossible in the case of Bildu, in Podemos refer to the agreement in Congress where the three parties signed to repeal the labor reform. They see it as a cornerstone.

"We have to forge alliances with different political agents, and there is of course EH Bildu and the PSOE because those progressive political forces are part of it," said Pilar Garrido , the new leader of the party in the Basque Country , a few days ago . The clear bet is to act as a "bridge". "Our role is essential and I hope that we will pull on each other, the PSE and Bildu, to form a tripartite."

Cs, with the PP and against the PP

Inés Arrimadas faces her first major test of electoral fire with a headwind. Her first elections as president of Ciudadanos are held in her two most adverse autonomous communities: Galicia and the Basque Country. Cs was born 15 years ago in Barcelona against nationalism. There it was forged and grew until it won the Catalan elections in 2017 and became an important national political force.

But what it has not yet achieved is to establish itself in the other two historical communities with a strong nationalist presence and where their presence is testimonial. So these elections will be your most difficult revalidation.

Cs has never entered the Basque and Galician parliaments. Management sources acknowledge that they have "nothing to lose" on 12-J. Your goal is to break that resistance and enter both chambers. With two opposite strategies, yes: in coalition with the PP in the Basque Country and alone and against the PP in Galicia.

Ciudadanos continues to emerge, moreover, from its most turbulent crisis, after the debacle of November 10, when it sank from the 57 seats it had only 10, and after the traumatic resignation of Albert Rivera. In these months, Arrimadas has built a new team, also collecting Rivera's star signings, such as the parliamentary spokesman, Edmundo Bal.

But, above all, Arrimadas has changed course and has set itself the goal of reaching the center. The Jerez leader has set fire to her main goal of making "useful policy", as she explains. In fact, according to the polls, it seems that it has successfully combined its pacts with the Government and a solid alliance with the PP.

Cs governs with the party of Pablo Casado the governments of Andalusia, Community of Madrid, Castilla y León and Murcia. In addition, it has closed an advantageous coalition with the PP in the Basque Country that it could not agree in Galicia due to the refusal of Alberto Núñez Feijóo to share his candidacy with the liberal party.

CS sources emphasize that the negotiation in the Basque Country, which was piloted by the national directorates, was "extraordinarily positive" for the oranges . In fact, they achieved two almost consolidated starting positions, except for a catastrophe: number two for Vizcaya and number three for Álava . These two deputies would enter the Chamber of Vitoria even in the event that PP + Cs fell from its current nine deputies to six. The negotiation was so good for Cs that it caused the resignation of the Basque PP president, Alfonso Alonso.

Arrimadas will make two parentheses on their maternity leave to intervene in both campaigns. She will share a meeting with Pablo Casado in the Basque Country and will spend a day in Galicia in support of her candidate.

The Basque campaign is fully coordinated with that of the PP, in such a way that almost all the events will be joint, including a meeting of the youth of both formations and joint meetings of their candidates. The Basque constitutionalist alliance will even go to Congress, since the parliamentary groups of the PP and Cs are going to present joint written questions.

Cs's solo career in Galicia seems more uphill, as he faces the almighty Feijóo, who has the polls in his favor. Still, the candidate for Pontevedra , Beatriz Pino , considers that the "very high abstention" expected in these elections and the original campaign of Cs in Galicia may end up ringing the bell.

Management sources explain that if they manage to repeat their bad results on November 10 -23,000 votes in Pontevedra-, they would get to enter the Galician Parliament. Still, the same sources are realistic and recognize the extreme difficulty of this feat in the face of a hegemonic PP that tries to capitalize on the entire Galician center-right.

Beatriz Pino, niece and goddaughter of the legendary cyclist Álvaro Pino , will make an original campaign, closely linked to sport. And it will confront directly with the Galician PP, "very different from the national PP", they explain in their environment. Feijóo, they say in the direction of Cs, "considers Galicia as her private estate" and "has the region paralyzed".

Pino will present himself as the necessary revulsion to force Feijóo to change policies and to stop Galician nationalism. In addition, they add, the latest results in Pontevedra suggest that the Cs seat could be in dispute with that of the Galician Nationalist Block.

In addition to Arrimadas, the two campaigns will feature the arrival of national leaders of the formation and several deputies and MEPs. In the Basque Country, PP and Cs will also have two historical figures of Basque constitutionalism: Fernando Savater and Maite Pagazaurtundua .

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  • Santiago Abascal Conde
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