Libya: will the Battle of Sirte take place?

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In Libya, the fate of the city of Sirte depends more than ever on the attitude of the foreign powers involved in the Libyan conflict, and especially on the will of Turkey which pushes the Government of National Union (GNA) to take this city. . The GNA continues to join forces near Sirte, a strategic coastal city and lock of oil terminals. The opposing camp, represented by the Libyan national army led by Khalifa Haftar, is also on alert. Each camp, supported by its foreign partners, is preparing for the next stage of this Libyan war.

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The freezing of the front on the route of the June 6 line, called for by the international community, does not seem appropriate. A red line, for Russia as for Egypt and their allies (Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Bahrain and France) as well as the Libyan National Army. It extends from Sirte in the center, on the coast, to Sebha, in the south, at the bottom of the Libyan desert, passing by the air base of Al Joufra.

GNA convoys stopped by Haftar aviation

Libya is today faced with two scenarios: a battle at Sirte or the partition of the country following the route of this famous red line. In both cases, and awaiting a solution which is military or diplomatic, the new front is located 60 km west of Sirte. Since June 6, on three occasions, the convoys of the GNA which tried to advance towards Sirte have been stopped dead by the aviation of Khalifa Haftar.

The ANL also decreed, on Sunday, a no-fly zone over a radius of 200 km around Sirte, the birthplace of Mouamar Khadafi. ANL aviation made several sorties over the city on Wednesday, crossing the sound barrier.

Turkey provides arms

Both sides have sent reinforcements in recent days. Turkey has supplied more sophisticated weapons and a few hundred mercenaries to the GNA since June 6. Egypt, on the other hand, has amassed its fighter jets and soldiers at the Sidi Barrani base on the border with Libya, while using its diplomatic cards to try to avoid the worst. Unsuccessful so far.

But Wednesday, Ankara made fun of these red lines, its allies in Tripoli refused in concert the declaration of the Arab League , announced the day before. The importance of Libyan oil and gas has always been stressed in recent speeches by Turkish President Erdogan.

Aguila Saleh, the head of the Libyan parliament, supreme commander of the Libyan armed forces according to the constitution, announced that if Sirte is attacked, he will ask on behalf of the Libyan people for the intervention of Egypt. But the parliament based in Toubrok in the east is strongly divided, like the country.

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• Libya
• Khalifa Haftar
• Turkey