- France denounced an "extremely aggressive" act by Turkey in the Mediterranean Sea, claiming that the country had threatened one of its boats.
- A new hitch in relations between the two countries, which have been getting worse for years.
- "For fifteen years, things have deteriorated, crises have been more violent and more frequent," said Didier Billion, deputy director at IRIS and specialist in Turkey.
An attack on the open sea, arrests of "spies" in the pay of France ... Nothing is going well between France and Turkey, whose relations have been poisoned in recent weeks. At the heart of the scramble: issues of influence and credibility, but also old bitterness.
20 Minutes reviews the incidents of the past few days with two specialists, Didier Billion, IRIS deputy director and specialist in Turkey and Luis Martinez, Maghreb and Middle East specialist at CERI, author of the book L'Afrique du North after the Arab revolts (ed. Presses de Sciences po, 2019).
What has happened in the Mediterranean?
Off Libya, a naval incident took place on June 10 between the two powers. On the one hand, the French frigate Courbet , which patrols in the Mediterranean on behalf of NATO, as part of a maritime security operation. Opposite, a ship suspected of transporting arms in its 54 containers bound for Libya, a country yet placed under embargo by NATO (organization of which France and Turkey are part, you follow?). The French navy was ordered to check its cargo and contacted the ship. From that moment, the versions of the two countries diverge.
According to France, a nearby Turkish naval vessel "illuminated it three times with its fire control radar". The radar illumination is intended to carry out a final location before a shot to guide a possible missile. “This case is in our eyes very serious (…). We cannot accept that an ally behaves like this, does this against a NATO ship under NATO command leading a NATO mission, "denounced the Minister of the Armed Forces, Florence Parly.
Turkey has dismissed "unfounded" charges and a senior Turkish military official who requested anonymity accused the French vessel of having carried out a "high speed and dangerous maneuver", passing too close to the suspect vessel.
This hanging testifies to the battle of influence which is played in this zone of the Mediterranean. "Turkey is occupying a space in Libya that France hoped to play," comments Luiz Martinez. “In a simple way, France was, with the United Kingdom and the United States, at the origin of the fall of the Gaddafi regime. But these countries then abandoned the region. They were unable to think about rebuilding the country, ”he explains. Turkey then took over this space. “It now hopes to offer an ideological and political model in North Africa, with the Islamist parties in power. It would be, from France's point of view, a cruel political failure. "
The arrest of four spies, announced on June 23 by Ankara, comes to strike a new blow to the relationship between the two countries?
Another penknife in relations between the two countries: the arrest of four people suspected of being "spies" in the pay of France, announced by Ankara. “This is clearly a warning, analyzes Didier Billion. The fact that this is happening today and that the Turkish press gives it relief clearly indicates that it is a strong signal sent to France, which highlights the deteriorating state of relations between the two countries, which is very concerning. The Turkish message is clear: we will not let this happen. ” Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian reacted on Wednesday, asking the European Union to look "without taboo" on its relationship with Turkey.
Have relations between the two countries been strained for a long time?
“It's like an old couple, everything goes well for long periods, then there is a crisis. But for fifteen years, things have been deteriorating, crises have been more violent and more frequent, ”said Didier Billion, who has a very precise idea of the date on which this deterioration began. “Nicolas Sarkozy's five-year term has been a disaster from the point of view of these relations. First of all, on the merits, he was against Turkey's accession to the European Union. And on the form, he had been very condescending. The Turks did not appreciate it and they still remember it today. "
If the situation had improved under François Hollande, who had made an official trip to Turkey, the declarations of Emmanuel Macron again put fuel on the fire. Like when he accused NATO of "brain death" after Turkish intervention in Syria. " It is not a good sign. We don't have to love Erdogan or appreciate his politics, but Turkey remains a power in the region. There is nothing worse than the current situation, where the names of birds fly, ”said the researcher.
What can we expect for the future?
"The diplomatic link is not broken, the ambassadors of the two countries have not been summoned," reassures Didier Billion. It should also not be forgotten that Turkey and France have close commercial ties, mutual economic interests. For specialists, the next step should be international arbitration. At the request of France, a commission of inquiry into the incident in the Mediterranean has been opened by NATO. "This will certainly lead to a resolution urging the two countries to calm down in diplomatic terms. But I don't think it will work. In any case, the situation will not deteriorate, "says Didier Billion.
What about the Libyan case? "In the best of cases, the United States returns to NATO and succeeds in proving that the alliance is effective if there is not this kind of confrontation, but the pursuit of common interests" , says Luis Martinez. "But if Trump leaves for four years, France will have to show Turkey that it is not ready to step aside in Libya. "
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