The French newspaper Liberation said that the city of Sirte has become the knot of the Libyan conflict, noting that it has been holding its breath for days between the build-up of the forces of the National Accord Government and the forces of retired Major General Khalifa Hifter, but its fate depends first of all on the position of foreign powers involved in the conflict.
In an article by Cillian Massi, the newspaper said that Haftar's forces - returning from a series of defeats after the Tripoli Siege - had been stationed in the city, the former stronghold of the late Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, and the quick reconciliation government forces ’attack had stopped at its western outskirts, so clashes became rare, but all A party gathering men and preparing for the decisive battle.
Meanwhile, as the author says, diplomacy has taken hold of the situation, because the battles of the conflict in Libya are largely won from abroad, as the National Accord government would never have fended off Haftar's fighters had it not been for the increased military assistance from Turkey, and Haftar's forces were The presence of Emirates drones and mercenaries from Russia and French diplomatic support would have collapsed.
Sirte and Al-Jafra became the "red line" that threatened Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi - the main sponsor and role model for Haftar - with direct intervention in Libya if the forces loyal to the internationally recognized government of Al-Wefaq crossed that line.
Military statements,
although the government of National Accord described al-Sisi's statements as a "declaration of war" and expressed its anger at hearing a foreign force drawing "red lines" on its soil; The writer believes that this straight line from Sirte to Al-Jafra divides Libya from north to south into two parts: one is west of this line in the Tripoli region under Turkish influence, and the second is east of it in the Barqa area, under Russian-Egyptian protection.
In this context, the US military denounced the presence of 14 Russian combat aircraft at the strategic Al-Jafra air base, located 250 kilometers south of Sirte, and controlled by forces loyal to Haftar.
The writer quotes researcher Yazid Sayegh from the Carnegie Middle East Center as saying, "The possibility of Egypt's interference increases directly, but I believe that the Sisi administration does not like it, and will resort to it only as a last resort. Even if it does, it will be a limited intervention, so that its forces cross the border strongly and then It stops, declaring its determination to persuade the other side to stop its progress. "
The restructuring of the institutions
, however, the writer believes that Turkey -alta catalyzed winning streak in the vicinity of Tripoli made the opening of Sirte and Jufrah priority, and also made national reconciliation a condition for the signing of a ceasefire government, wondering: Will the Libyan Fayez Al- Sarraj Prime Minister received approval from Washington To continue the attack after a meeting with the head of the African Command (AFRICOM), General Stephen Townsend, and US Ambassador Richard Norland?
He adds that Tripoli considered this meeting an important support for it, but the US embassy statement spoke with great caution, saying that "it is necessary to end the military action and return to negotiations," without specifying the fate of Sirte and al-Jafra.
The author asked what negotiations the Americans are talking about? He pointed out that Tripoli strongly rejected the so-called "Cairo" initiative which was formulated by the Speaker of Parliament in Tobruk Aqila Saleh - Haftar's ally - in which he envisaged the restructuring of institutions in Libya, knowing that it is possible to revitalize the role of the United Nations, which has been stalled for several months.
The dangerous game
The writer adds that in the context of this crisis, French President Emmanuel Macron used the visit of Tunisian President Qais Saeed to Paris to express his concern about the situation in the neighboring country of Tunisia, saying, "I consider that Turkey is playing a dangerous game in Libya, which contradicts all its obligations." He pointed out that "President Sisi 's concern is legitimate when he sees the forces reaching his borders." Although Sirte is located more than 800 kilometers from the Egyptian territory.
Although the incidents that occurred last week between the French and Turkish navies off Libya did not lead to an escalation, Macron recalled his old saying, "NATO is brain dead," noting that "what Turkey - a member of this alliance - is doing in violation of the arms embargo to Libya is proof of this, "the French president said.
Turkey replied to Macron, and reminded him of "the support France has provided for years to the illegal actors," referring to Haftar. Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesman Hami Aksoy said that France "from this point of view is actually playing a dangerous game."
The author concluded by asking: Will this "great diplomatic gambling" that is being played in the capitals of the world save Sirte from a new battle? Or, on the contrary, will the oil be poured into the fire, especially since the Libyans can no longer dispose of these powerful herders?