Paris (AFP)

The French economy is expected to experience one of the worst recessions in the world in 2020, according to new forecasts from the International Monetary Fund, which expects a scenario darker than that of the government.

French GDP is expected to fall in 2020 by 12.5%, instead of 7.2%, estimated Wednesday the IMF, which updated its global forecasts. France, which has recorded nearly 30,000 deaths linked to Covid-19 and where confinement was particularly strict until May 11, should thus experience one of the worst recessions on the planet this year due to the coronavirus pandemic , alongside Italy (-12.8%) and Spain (-12.8%).

In France as elsewhere, "the recovery should be more gradual than expected," said the IMF, while highlighting the uncertainty surrounding its new forecasts.

With this figure of -12.5%, the institution is more pessimistic than the government, which expects a decline in GDP of 11%, the strongest recession in France since 1945. This forecast, which is based on a hypothesis of reopening of the borders in Europe on June 15 and at the end of the summer with the rest of the world, takes into account the only gradual restart of the economy, had specified Bercy earlier in the month. The High Council of Public Finance had deemed it "prudent".

The IMF estimate is also darker than that of the Banque de France, which anticipates a plunge in GDP of around 10% this year, despite the "gradual" recovery in activity from the third quarter.

Today, the situation has already improved significantly in the industry where plant closings are now rare, and in the building industry, where construction has resumed, but it remains more mixed in services, where some sectors have just resumed their activity, such as catering, cinemas or sports halls.

- Tumble in 2020 then rebound in 2021 -

The future of the recovery will depend in particular on the impact and duration of health protocols in businesses, consumption and investment behavior of households and businesses, as well as the international context, according to INSEE, which does has not released an annual forecast of the extent of the recession.

The recovery in household consumption will be particularly decisive since the health crisis has mainly caused demand to stop. During confinement, in France, as elsewhere, households mainly purchased basic necessities (food and hygiene), abandoning clothing, furniture or vehicles.

"I do not believe in (...) an extraordinarily rapid recovery after a brutal collapse which would allow us to find at the end of 2020 the same level of growth as at the beginning of this year," said the minister. of Economy Bruno Le Maire last week during a hearing at the Franco-German parliamentary assembly.

In general, worldwide, "consumption should gradually increase next year," as will investment, which should, however, "remain moderate," predicts the IMF in its report.

Under these conditions, after a very strong recession expected in 2020, the institution anticipates for France a rebound in growth of 7.3% in 2021, a figure improving by 2.8 points compared to its previous estimate dated d April and close to that expected by the Banque de France (7%).

This would be one of the strongest growth among the developed countries. France is thus ahead of the United States (+ 4.5%), Germany (+ 5.4%) or Italy (+ 6.3%) and Spain (+ 6.3%) ), according to IMF forecasts.

However, "this strong apparent rebound would not return to the level of activity at the end of 2019 before mid-2022", has already warned the French central bank.

© 2020 AFP