Washington (AFP)

Over $ 12 trillion cumulative loss to the global economy in 2020 and 2021 due to the coronavirus pandemic. This "crisis like no other" is much worse than expected and the recovery will be slower than expected, warned the International Monetary Fund on Wednesday.

Gita Gopinath, its chief economist, released a 4.9% recession forecast this year.

This is much worse than the 3% expected in April in the heart of the pandemic, when the IMF already stressed that it was the worst crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

And for certain countries, particularly in Europe, the contraction in gross domestic product is staggering: -12.5% ​​for France, -12.8% for Spain and Italy.

"A high degree of uncertainty surrounds" these forecasts, recognizes Ms. Gopinath while the epidemic is not over and homes are re-emerging where it seemed to be contained, as in Germany where the authorities announced Tuesday local reconfigurations.

To date, the Covid-19 pandemic has killed more than 477,500 people worldwide.

For the moment, no country has escaped the ambient pessimism, starting with China, where the deadly virus left in late 2019.

The Washington institution now sees only 1% growth, far from the 6.1% achieved in 2019, which was already a historic low due to the trade war with Washington.

The health crisis will strike an even stronger blow in the United States, without a social safety net and despite the gigantic aid plans of the government (some 3,000 billion dollars).

The GDP of the world's leading power will thus collapse by 8% against 5.9% estimated in April. The recovery in 2021 will be less sustained (+ 4.5%).

All over the world, catastrophic figures: -10.2% for the countries of the euro zone and for the United Kingdom, -9.4% in the region of Latin America and the Caribbean, -8% in Africa from the South, -5.8% in Japan, -4.7% in the Middle East and Central Asia or -4.5% in India.

In its report, the Fund notes that the pandemic "had a more negative impact on activity in the first half of 2020 than expected".

In addition, he warns, "the recovery should be more gradual than expected". In 2021, global growth should thus reach 5.4% (-0.4%).

This is around 6.5 percentage points lower than in January's projections before the virus spread worldwide.

- Worse or better? -

The IMF is particularly concerned about the negative impact on low-income households, which "jeopardizes the significant progress made in reducing extreme poverty in the world since the 1990s".

However, as for the projections published in April, "there is a higher degree of uncertainty than usual around this forecast," observes the IMF.

Ultimately, it could turn out to be worse or better.

Better, if there is for example the discovery of a vaccine and if there are additional government aids that will accelerate the recovery.

On the contrary, "new waves of infections can slow" recovery "and tighten financial conditions quickly, causing over-indebtedness," said Gita Gopinath.

In economies where infection rates are declining, the recovery is currently longer due to the persistence of physical distancing in the second half.

In addition, the recovery is "uneven," says Gita Gopinath. Certain sectors such as retail sales rebound, others such as the "contact-intensive" sectors such as hotels, travel and tourism remain depressed, "she notes.

Countries heavily dependent on these sectors will be "likely to be deeply affected for an extended period," said the economist.

For economies still struggling to contain the pandemic, containment measures continue to weigh.

In addition, the possibility of "alternative results" is not only explained by the evolution of the pandemic, "notes the IMF.

Indeed, the extent of the recent rebound in the financial markets questions how much it seems "disconnected" from changes in the economic outlook.

Finally, beyond the pandemic, other risks are compromising the world economy, the IMF stresses, citing "the escalation of tensions between the United States and China", "the unraveling of relations between the Organization oil-exporting countries (OPEC) and the coalition of oil producers "or" social unrest ".

© 2020 AFP