- We have not been able to see any dramatic change in the market or in the criminals. Commercial freight traffic with trucks and ferries has flown by, and it is through it that most, if not all, comes, says Stewe Alm, strategic analyst at the National Operations Department, NOA.

The reduction in reported crime in several crime categories during the spring has also not been seen in drug crime, where on the contrary there has been a significant increase ( see fact box ).

Sweden already digital

Recently, the EU Drugs Agency, the EMCDDA and the European Police Office Europol released a report on how the European drug market has managed in the spring, and even there it was established that drug crime has managed to adapt to the prevailing situation and that the industry is still generating huge profits.

The changes that have nevertheless appeared most at the bottom of the drug pyramid, with longers and buyers being forced to adapt to a reality where people's ability to move is limited.

It was also highlighted that the digitalisation of the drug trade has escalated and that Darknet, social media and encrypted communication apps have come to play an increasingly important role, especially for trade in smaller quantities of cannabis.

Stewe Alm says that you can see the same pattern in Sweden, but that we were already far ahead in the development.

- Development has already been going on for a while, but our assessment is that it is mainly the development of violence around the open drug trade that frightened buyers, who now tend to shop online instead. But certainly, the development has probably been pushed by the pandemic.

Concerns about rising unemployment

Stewe Alm also highlights other effects that may come from the spring pandemic. Among other things, the risk of increased financial unrest and rising unemployment.

- We see a high risk of addiction, especially when it comes to synthetic opioids and heroin, drugs that are anxiety-reducing. A sharp rise in unemployment would also hit extra hard against non-Swedish-born, and delay recruitment to gang crime.