Hand on heart - can you name a member of Sweden's highest court? No, Sweden is one of many countries where the judiciary's key people are doing their job in the quiet, far from the media headlines. In Brazil, it is just the opposite. The members of the Supreme Court are media stars who during the 2000s played a leading role in the country's political drama. And now they have President Bolsonaro's fate in their hands.
Allies to the president are arrestedBrazil's highest court is conducting an investigation into organized dissemination of fake news and threats from a network known in Brazilian media as the "hate cabinet" with offices in the very presidential palace. Among the suspects are President Son Carlos Bolsonaro and some of the family's closest allies. And the snare is tightened. Over the past few weeks, several very prominent arrests of bloggers, youtubers and entrepreneurs have taken place.
Bolsonaro's government this week has also been shaken by yet another ministerial departure. The Supreme Court had set its sights on the Minister of Education after he said he wanted to throw the judges in jail and participated in a demonstration they saw as anti-democratic. The Minister of Education was finally forced to leave and went into exile in the United States. Twelve ministers have now left the government since Bolsonaro took office in January 2019.
Threats with military interventionPresident Bolsonaro has openly stated that he will not allow the judiciary to go "too far" and hinted that a military intervention may be needed. But the chairman of the Supreme Court has replied that they will never give in to threats. The fact that the judiciary has enough power, independence and self-confidence to hold the authorities accountable is a sign of freshness for Brazil's democracy.
During the past decade, a large number of people with top positions in politics and business have been stuck for involvement in corruption or other crimes. Something that would be unthinkable in many Latin American countries where the government's grip on the judiciary is strong or powerful criminal structures make the fear of challenging power too great.
Lawyers gain power over politicsBut judges and prosecutors have a decisive influence over who gets the power and how long a president can sit in his post is not without problems. Sometimes it is called judicialisation of politics - that is, power is shifted from elected politicians to lawyers. What then happens to people's confidence in the political system and their sense of opportunities to influence how the country is governed?
When astronomer Sergio Moro ran the legal process that led to President Lula da Silva being sentenced to prison for corruption, he was accused from the left to be guided by political motives. In retrospect, evidence has emerged that judges and prosecutors have been cooperating in an improper manner. And there is nothing that precludes a political agenda behind the Supreme Court's judicial proceedings against the Bolsonaro family. Perhaps the ever-increasing pace of the investigations is just a sign that the president has lost support among influential groups.
More and more people in Brazil are now talking about the fact that it can be a court process against Bolsonaro. It is a political process that requires a majority in Congress to oust the president. But Bolsonaro's time in power can also end through the judiciary. What emerges in the Supreme Court's investigations can be used by the Electoral Court, which investigates how false information affected election results in 2018. If the Electoral Court finds the evidence sufficiently convincing, it can invalidate Bolsonaro's election victory, which would force a new election.
Bolsonaro's rolling victory can be annulledIt is not the corona crisis that underlies the legal processes that threaten Bolsonaro's position, but the government's chaotic handling of the pandemic causes confidence in the president to fall, which increases the likelihood that Congress would vote to cast Bolsonaro in a judicial process. In order to avoid this, Bolsonaro has recently dedicated himself to securing support from the powerful middle bloc called "centrão" by promising political positions and influence.
Even if the president manages to make it out of the difficult situation, he risks becoming a loser. By being forced to devote himself to the kind of political cow trading that he promised to make a point for, it will become increasingly difficult to maintain the image of Bolsonaro as a different politician. The fearless outsider who would shake up the system and clear out a corrupt political class would eventually become at least as cynical a player of power as the others.