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The death toll in Spain during the coronavirus pandemic led to a chaos of numbers, a confusion of numbers that caused confusion in society, international discredit and discomfort among researchers. After keeping the death toll frozen since June 7, with a figure of 27,136 deaths from coronavirus, the Government has updated this figure on Friday, June 19, placing it at 28,313 deaths. A record far removed from the estimates made by government-dependent institutes such as INE (47,998) and Momo (43,340), which considerably raise the estimate of deaths during the pandemic.

Both the INE and the MoMo present a count of deaths during the pandemic that encompasses all causes. From Health, they had defended themselves arguing that not all the excess of deaths could be attributed to the coronavirus. But, nevertheless, the gap between the data provided by the health authorities and the statistics of excess deaths was such that it could be deduced that there were only two explanations. Either there has been an extraordinary cause of death in recent months unrelated to Covid-19 or, more likely, the number of deceased that the Government had recorded was far from reality.

"The difference between the data on excess mortality and death from confirmed cases is due to the fact that in one case excess mortality is calculated compared to that estimated in the previous year and the other data is death from a confirmed diagnosis case" , has defended Salvador Illa, Minister of Health. The authorities defend that part of this excess mortality may be due to the coronavirus, but that there will be other people who have died for other reasons.

Momo: 43340

The Daily Mortality Monitoring System ( MoMo ) uses all-cause mortality information obtained daily from 3,929 computerized civil registries of the Ministry of Justice, corresponding to 93% of the Spanish population and which includes all provinces. Estimates of expected mortality are made using restrictive models of historical averages based on the mortality observed from January 1, 2008 to a year prior to the current date, from the National Institute of Statistics.

Based on these data, Momo estimates an excess of deaths between March 13 to May 22, 2020 of 43,340 people. Which is 56% higher than expected.

INE: 47,998

The National Statistics Institute ( INE ) launched a study to show the estimate of weekly deaths during the Covid-19 outbreak. A project based on the updated data received from the Civil Registries combined with historical information from the Death Statistics. This agency, dependent on the Government, determined that from the beginning of March to May 24 a total of 143,204 people had died in Spain. The data showed that Covid had caused, compared to previous years, 47,998 more deaths on average in 2020. It could be considered a direct cause-effect relationship by Covid.

Aesprof: 43,985

The Spanish Association of Professionals of Funeral Services ( Aesprof ) carried out a 'Study of real mortality in Spain due to the coronavirus pandemic', which ran from March 14 to May 25. A report prepared with the participation of more than 250 workers from the different sectors of the funeral services (funerals, cemetery staff, civil registry staff and Institutes of legal medicine). This association included in its computation the deceased suspects of Covid-19, "since in the first weeks no screening tests were carried out and those who died in nursing homes, homes and hospital centers were included, from March 23 to date of May 23, 2020 ", they indicated.

For Aesprof, when he published his report on June 1, he considered that "official figures continue to shed no light on this issue from the start of the pandemic until today, due to the disparity in the statistical criteria for accounting for the deceased without following traceability. concrete ".

The Government has defended their data and "transparency", claiming that they have presented the data of deceased from "confirmed cases", that is, those deceased who had undergone a PCR. However, both in the daily reports sheets and in the protocol 'International guidance for the certification and classification of Covid-19 as a cause of death', available since mid-April, the WHO defines as death by Covid "a death resulting from a clinically compatible disease in a probable or confirmed Covid-19 case. " Likewise, it requests that Covid-19 be registered "in the medical certificate of cause of death for ALL the deceased where the disease caused, is supposed to have caused or contributed to it".

In other words, it also includes probable cases that, for example, Spain does not consider in its computation, since it only estimates those cases confirmed by PCR. Thus, if a person has had the symptoms of the virus or has even been diagnosed and died, but the test has not been performed, the official figure does not increase.

Fernando Simón has said that there is talk of cases of diseases "compatible" with coronavirus, which, he has defended, does not mean that it is due to coronavirus. And he has justified that suffering from the virus does not always imply dying from it. He also noted that the WHO talks about death certificates, which take time to compute, so it has considered that over time we will know the final death toll.

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