Chinanews.com, June 19 Question: Why are more and more American media saying that it is unrealistic to "decouple" from China?
Author Yan Yuan
Many observers have discovered that more and more American media have recently begun to make “unrealistic from China” voices.
At the beginning of the new crown epidemic, some American politicians took the opportunity to re-issue the "decoupling" of the Sino-US economy, and even once proposed a "hard decoupling" to China. Some US media have also followed up on such speculations.
So, why has the recent opposition to decoupling gradually increased in the American media? The reason is that with the development of the epidemic, the impact on the global economy is becoming increasingly apparent. The "decoupling" theory has increasingly highlighted its "unrealistic" nature in this process. From the reports of the American media, we can see that there are three main types of such "unrealistic":
First, the deep integration of global economic integration has made it technically difficult for China and the United States to "decouple" their economies.
A recent article in the US "Diplomacy" bimonthly website entitled "Stupidity with China" pointed out that rushing to eliminate dependence on China may eventually not only cut off healthy and important economic relations with China, but also cut off Economic links with other countries in the world.
A few days ago, US media reported that the US-China trade volume increased to US$39.7 billion in April, an increase of nearly 43% from March. This means that after experiencing an abnormal decline in trade caused by Sino-US trade friction in 2019, China has once again become the largest trading partner of the United States. This also illustrates the reality of the close and inseparable connection between the two major economies in the context of global economic integration.
As mentioned in the American media article above, it will "decouple" countries with complicated economic relations, which is likened to "do a complicated operation", and believes that the Chinese economy is not an independent organism that can be easily separated from the global economy. Instead, they are conjoined babies connected to the global economy through neural tissue, common organs, and the circulatory system.
Second, "decoupling" seriously violates the development laws and wishes of enterprises.
Many people remember that when the Chinese epidemic broke out in January, some US politicians made “optimistic” predictions that the epidemic will accelerate the return of work from China. But months have passed, what is the truth? An article published on the website of the US Foreign Policy magazine responded with the title-"No, the epidemic will not bring work back from China." The article points out through the data that the trade war has been fought for three years, and the tariffs should have forced many American companies to shift production from China. However, there is no evidence that a company is eager to move its business back to the United States due to the epidemic. Before the outbreak, many companies were already reconfiguring the supply chain in an attempt to evade the burden of tariffs, but they hardly moved production back to the United States.
Therefore, in the view of the author of the article, both the trade war and the new crown epidemic are "unlikely to force companies to relocate their manufacturing industries to the United States on a large scale", and, "with the increase in automation, it is unlikely that companies will return to the United States even if they return. People bring promised high-paying jobs."
A recent report in the "Washington Post" also directly pointed out that the uncoupling of the US economy from China is unrealistic. The article said that politicians said that the world's largest economies are destined to experience a "decoupling" that shakes the world. However, decoupling may be difficult, and companies have long-term ambitions for these two huge markets. Many executives worry that they will be excluded from this market, which is still the most promising market in the world.
The report said that in a survey conducted by the American Chamber of Commerce in China in March this year, more than 70% of the companies surveyed said that they had no plans to relocate production and supply chain operations or procurement activities outside of China due to the new crown epidemic.
CNBC also quoted Bain’s vice president Gerry Mattios in an earlier report that the epidemic has made countries around the world realize the importance of establishing a flexible supply chain, but China’s manufacturing industry will not suddenly dry up and face the Chinese market. Will continue to stay in China.
Third, through the extreme perspective of "decoupling," re-recognize the importance of China's economy to the world.
As the saying goes, you only know its value when you lose it. The extreme "decoupling" presupposition and the reality of temporary supply chain "blown" caused by the epidemic have made all walks of life in the world begin to re-recognize the importance of China as a supply chain link and a global market. A recent article in the New York Times titled "The World and Beijing "Uncoupling" is not easy, and the global economy is too expensive to quit China's addiction", using several specific cases such as lobsters, lamps and toilets to tell readers "how much decoupling from China" difficult". He also pointed out that the epidemic has heightened people's concerns about the global economy's over-reliance on China, but the world needs China more than ever. China's economic strength makes it the last hope to avoid a long-term global economic recession. As the British "Times" article pointed out, no country, including the United States, can afford the cost of losing China.
As China took the lead in resuming production and production under the epidemic, its economic recovery has become a glimpse of the world economy in the dark. After the National Bureau of Statistics of China released data on the 15th, foreign media have expressed their optimism about the Chinese economy. The Effie News Agency reported that in May, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size in the country increased by 4.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 0.5 percentage points from April. This shows that the economy of the Asian giant is recovering after being affected by the epidemic crisis. French BMFTV reported that China is the first country to be affected by the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, which may have caused the country’s economy to “stagnate” rapidly, but China’s ability to manage the crisis and the development of the Chinese economy have kept investors confident in China. . Faced with good long-term prospects, many multinational companies even plan to continue to increase investment in China by 2020.
In fact, the above "uncoupling unrealistic" view is not new. As early as the "decoupling" argument, many Chinese and foreign experts and scholars have put forward. However, after the test of time and reality, the conclusion drawn through practice will obviously be more convincing than the insight.
In recent days, high-level contacts between China and the United States have once again released many signals of goodwill, which have encouraged the outside world. The author hopes that "decoupling" is unrealistic-this perception from global practice can more firmly influence the next policy choices of China and the United States, abandon unrealistic extreme thinking as soon as possible, and return to rationality and construction The orbit of sex brings more positive certainty to the world. (Finish)