Even before the events of June 15, in which at least 20 Indian soldiers were killed, along with an unknown number of their Chinese counterparts, it was clear that this year’s shadow boxing on the so-called “de facto control line” was different.
In late May, the Indian defense analyst Ajay Shukla sounded the alarm, indicating that during the previous month, the People's Liberation Army had moved to take control of the Gallowan Valley, deployed more than 5,000 soldiers, in addition to artillery pieces, and Beijing had long demanded this area, but it It is of strategic importance, too, because it overlooks a road that India has recently developed from the villages of Durbuk and Sheuk to the south, where it connects to the wider network in Jammu and Kashmir, to the state «Dulet Beg Olde» air base, at the northern end of the territory administered by India, and to the East of the road is the Aksai Chen plateau, which was seized by China in the Border War in 1962, and to the north of the air base are the Karakoram and Xinjiang Pass.
Of course, the clashes across the actual Line of Control area are frequent, and there were many of them in 2013 and 2014, and they are not confrontations or even unusual battles. Three years ago, in a disputed area in Bhutan called "Duclam", Indian forces faced Chinese military engineers, who were building a road there, followed by ten weeks of tension, during which Beijing and New Delhi promised serious consequences, if they did not retreat, but in this case as In previous cases, an agreement was finally reached.
What makes the Jalwan Valley intervention different in the previous series of Chinese interventions across the Line of Control, is that - like the Pakistanis in Cargill - Beijing insists that the People's Liberation Army there is there to stay. On June 17, Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Legian announced that "China always has sovereignty over the Jalwan Valley region," and that if India wants to avoid conflict, it is up to New Delhi to restrain its forces.
The skirmishes of June 15 revealed this approach, forcing the Naridra Modi government to acknowledge - albeit implicitly - the presence of the Chinese army in the Gallowan Valley, and bilateral talks may calm the situation on the ground, but if Beijing continues to pressure its claim to the region, as it does The Chinese Foreign Ministry and government media, to keep the troops there, New Delhi faces some difficult options.
If the Modi government recedes, and allows the Chinese army to stay in Jalwan, public opinion may turn against it, and the Indians are already angry with China over the Corona epidemic, the trade imbalance between the two countries, and about “friendship” with Pakistan, and until now Modi has directed this to his own advantage , As he organized summits with the Chinese President, Xi Jinping, which made it appear as though China respected India as a kind. However, control of the Jalwan Valley, even if implicitly or temporarily, threatens the political authority of Modi.
On the other hand, if the government decides to take revenge in some way, it risks entering a wider war.
In recent weeks, both sides have moved forces to the Line of Control, to the western sector and the eastern part. Reports of the past few days indicate that New Delhi has ordered the army to intensify its preparations at the border and at sea, as the Indian Navy can intercept Chinese ships in the Indian Ocean, or the Strait of Malacca.
For the time being, India appears ready to talk to China, but even if a deal is reached, it is likely to be temporary.
Beijing clearly believes that it has the upper hand, and believes in the benefits of India's public coercion, sending messages to others in the region, which is a balance of costs. It is equally evident that New Delhi will not back down from deepening its strategic partnerships with the United States and other like-minded countries in the region, including Australia and Japan, to deal with the new China strategy. We are expected to witness other clashes between the two countries, diplomatic and possibly military.
Ian Hall: Professor of International Relations at the Australian University of Griffith, and academic fellow at the Australia-India Institute at the University of Melbourne. His most recent book is "Moody and the reinvention of Indian foreign policy."
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A soldier deployed by China in the Gallowan Valley last month.