Municipal posters in Marseille. - Fabien Dupoux / SIPA

  • The first round of municipal elections, maintained on March 15 despite the coronavirus epidemic, recorded a record of historic abstention for this local election.
  • The second round, which concerns around 5,000 cities and 16 million voters, could again be marked by a very low turnout.
  • Measures have been passed by Parliament to soften the proxy system and reassure voters, but their effect is uncertain.

The second round will finally take place. Postponed because of the coronavirus epidemic, municipal elections are scheduled for June 28, 15 weeks after the first round. After the historic abstention record of March 15, will participation remain very low? Will it fall? To encourage the 16 million voters to vote in the nearly 5,000 concerned, special measures were finally adopted Wednesday in the Senate. But their impact on participation remains uncertain.

With a national participation of 44.66%, the poll of March 15 marked a record of abstention for the municipal. Will the abstention be confirmed on June 28? The Ifop polling institute interviewed French people between June 9 and 12, and concluded that fewer than four in ten voters intend to vote. As for voters who plan to abstain, about 40% justify this choice, in part or exclusively, by the risks associated with the coronavirus.

Abstention which should be maintained or even increased

"Never have opinion surveys been able to predict the participation rate precisely," says Jean Chiche, a Cevipof researcher. In an Ifop survey published on March 13, 58% of those polled said they would vote, more than ten points above the turnout finally recorded. "The first round showed that in two days, the health context can change and change the intentions of voters," says Céline Braconnier, director of Sciences Po Saint-Germain-en-Laye. "By June 28, information on the situation in Beijing may cause concern and demobilize the electorate."

We can still expect high abstention on June 28, say these researchers. In the municipalities where a second round is necessary to renew the municipal team, participation was already lower than the national average on March 15, with a rate of 41.8%. "In metropolitan areas, abstention is traditionally higher, in particular because there are more young voters," analyzes Céline Braconnier. "We can expect a minimum abstention as high as in the first round, even a little higher".

Remobilization or disinterest?

However, certain factors are likely to re-engage voters. "There is always a progression of participation between the first and the second round in the communes with a tight waiver, as is the case in Toulouse or Lyon", notes Jean Chiche. The national social context can also weigh, while demonstrations have multiplied against racism or to ask for means for the hospital. "It can have a ripple effect," says the abstention specialist.

The coronavirus crisis has also reshuffled the cards for a campaign that has exceptionally stretched over time, notably with alliances. "These mergers, these negotiations between parties, not always understandable for voters who are not very politicized, can demobilize by accentuating the feeling of elected officials disconnected from everyday life," says Céline Braconnier. Double proxy and sanitary measures

Two proxies instead of one

To encourage participation, measures were finally adopted Wednesday in the Senate. For the first time, it will be possible for a voter to vote for two other inhabitants of his commune. Elderly or sick people, as well as those unable to travel to establish their power of attorney, may send a third person or obtain an appointment at home.

"This can reassure those who are afraid of going to vote, and we hope that it will strengthen participation," said Sacha Houlié, LREM deputy from Vienne and member of the joint joint committee who worked on these proposals. We must "hammer that there is an election on June 28," said Tuesday the Minister of the Interior, Christophe Castaner, before the deputies. The wearing of the mask will be compulsory in polling stations, which will also be equipped with protective equipment.

Marginal effects?

These measures are not likely to greatly increase participation according to the researchers. "They are not late," said Jean Chiche. "People can also be wary of political recovery in matters of proxy, especially because of what is happening in Marseille." Proxies can in any case interest "the older electorate and urban residents who vote in their second home".

Two options were not retained by the parliamentarians: postal voting and the possibility of voting by proxy for a resident registered in another municipality. "We would have needed a single electoral register, built by INSEE, but this file is not yet operational," explains Sacha Houlié. As for the postal vote, "suspicions of fraud may weigh on this device, which is also quite expensive, of the order of 81 million euros", continues the parliamentarian.

In any case, the date of the poll, at the edge of the summer holidays, should not weigh, according to Jean Chiche. “During the votes planned for a weekend, or on the eve of school holidays, we do not observe any major impact on participation. "

Politics

Municipal 2020: Six cities to follow in the second round to understand the challenges for major parties

  • Elections
  • Municipal
  • Mayor
  • Participation
  • Ballot
  • Vote
  • Abstention