The "danger" of seeing a second wave of the Covid-19 epidemic hitting Europe comes "much more" from its outbreak in South America than from the new outbreaks that have appeared recently in China, a member of the Scientific Council estimated on Thursday French Bruno Lina, at the National Assembly. "This is much more where the danger is now," said the virologist before the National Assembly's commission of inquiry on the management of the coronavirus crisis.
The appearance in recent days of several coronavirus outbreaks in Beijing has raised concerns about the risks of a further spread of the disease in the country where it appeared in December.
Risk of recirculating the virus in summer
At the same time, the epidemic continues to wreak havoc in South America, particularly in Brazil, now the second most affected country in the world behind the United States.
The situation in China shows us, however, "the risk of seeing the virus recirculate, even in summer," added Bruno Lina, heard in his capacity as a member of the scientific council, alongside the chairman of this group of experts charged with advising the government during the epidemic, Jean-François Delfraissy, and two other members.
A second wave from the end of October?
"The scientific council considers that, given what is happening in South America, the risk of a real second wave coming from the southern hemisphere at the end of October, in November or in December, is a risk which must be considered, ”said Jean-François Delfraissy.
The scientific council published a notice on June 5 estimating that the scenario of an “epidemic under control” in the coming months was the most probable, but that the public authorities had to prepare actively to anticipate more unfavorable scenarios, to “not not be in the situation experienced on March 12 "where confinement had become inevitable, said its president before the deputies.
A “partial containment” in the event of a second wave?
Jean-François Delfraissy also reiterated that a new generalized confinement would in his opinion be "neither possible nor desirable" because "it would not be accepted by the population" and would have far-reaching economic and societal consequences. If necessary, he rather envisages “partial confinement” advised to “older populations, more at risk”.
Asked about the possibility of regional confinement, limited to the areas affected by a possible rebound of the epidemic, the epidemiologist Arnaud Fontanet judged that it would be "difficult to ensure it at the level" actually preventing "dissemination" to rest of the territory.
He gave the example of border closings, which “do not work” because some “bypass them”, and which therefore only allows “to save a few days” in the expansion of an epidemic.
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