"65 years old +" will break 200 million in 5 years, the most important window period for coping with aging will open
Since entering the aging society in 2000, the degree of aging of our population has continued to deepen. By around 2022, China's population over 65 years old will account for 14% of the total population, achieving a transition to an aging society.
The "China Development Report 2020: Development Trends and Policies on China's Population Aging" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") issued by the China Development Foundation made the above prediction.
The report said that the aging population has both challenges and opportunities. From now to the middle of this century is a period of rapid development of China's population aging, and it is essential to actively, scientifically and effectively respond to the aging of the population.
Zheng Bingwen, director of the World Social Security Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that China’s old-age security system should be improved as soon as possible. The important reforms that should be promoted as soon as possible during the “Fourteenth Five-Year Plan” period include the realization of provincial-level pension planning and the improvement of the retirement system, such as raising the legal retirement Age and flexible retirement system.
Image source: First Financial
Nearly 500 million elderly people in 2050
From a global perspective, China is a country that has entered the population aging society late, but since it entered the aging society in 2000, the pace of aging development is accelerating.
An analysis article by the National Bureau of Statistics stated that the change in the type of population reproduction has led to the aging of the age structure of the population. In 2000, the proportion of my country's population aged 65 years and over reached 7%, and the proportion of population aged 0-14 years was 22.9%. An age-type age structure was initially formed, and China began to enter an aging society. In 2018, the proportion of my country's population aged 65 and over reached 11.9%, and the proportion of the population aged 0-14 fell to 16.9%. The aging population continues to deepen.
The report believes that a large population base and rapid development are typical characteristics of China's aging population. In 2000, the elderly population aged 60 years and over was 130 million, accounting for 10.3% of the total population, and the population aged 65 years and over was 88.27 million, accounting for 7%. In 2005, China's population aged 65 and over exceeded 100 million, exceeding the total population of most developed countries. In 2010, China's elderly population aged 60 and over reached 178 million, accounting for 13.3% of the total population, and the population aged 65 and over reached 118 million, accounting for 8.9% of the total population.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of elderly people aged 60 and over reached 254 million at the end of 2019, accounting for 18.1% of the total population, and those aged 65 and over reached 176 million, accounting for 12.6% of the total population.
The report predicts that China will enter an aging society from an aging society around 2022, when the population aged 65 and over will account for more than 14% of the total population. This process took only about 22 years, faster than France and Sweden, which first entered the aging society. These two countries took 115 and 85 years respectively to achieve the transition to the aging society, and also faster than other major developed countries.
Aging is an important feature of China's population aging. In the sixth census in 2010, there were 19.04 million senior citizens in China. Statistics from the China Demographic and Employment Statistics Yearbook show that from 2000 to 2018, the proportion of the younger, middle-aged and senior citizens in the total population rose from 6.16%, 3.34% and 0.96% to 10.73% respectively , 5.03%, 2.08%. Among them, the average growth rate of the elderly population is the fastest. As the birth populations of the three birth peaks have entered the advanced age one after another, the phenomenon of "aging" in the age structure of the elderly population will gradually become more prominent in the future.
The report estimates that in 2020, there are about 180 million elderly people aged 65 and over in China, accounting for about 13% of the total population; when the “Fourteenth Five-Year Plan” is completed in 2025, the number of elderly people aged 65 and over will exceed 210 million, accounting for About 15% of the total population; by 2035 and 2050, China’s elderly aged 65 and above will reach 310 million and close to 380 million, accounting for 22.3% and 27.9% of the total population, respectively. If 60 years old and above are used as the criteria for delineating the elderly population, China will have a larger number of elderly population, and there will be close to 500 million elderly people by 2050.
Image source: First Financial
"14th Five-Year Plan" is an important window period
China's aging presents a unique feature, that is, the process of population aging and urbanization overlap. In the future, while the aging of China's population is accelerating, urbanization will develop at a high speed.
The report roughly divides China's urbanization process from 2019 to 2050 into two stages: one is that from 2019 to 2036, the urban population will increase from 826 million to 1.047 billion; the second is from 2037 to 2050, the urban population will be from 1.044 billion It fell to 1.013 billion, a net decrease of 31 million people.
The report believes that the aging population along with large-scale urban-rural population migration will bring great challenges to urban development. At the same time, in the process of urbanization, the elderly will break away from the original acquaintance society and enter the stranger society in the town, resulting in fragmentation and atomization of individuals. This will form a severe test for the social participation of the elderly.
Image source: First Financial
Feng Wenmeng, director of the research department of the Social Development Research Department of the State Council’s Development Research Center, said that the elderly population is huge, and there are significant differences in urban, rural, and geographical dimensions. Policy measures need to be based on urban and rural, regional, gender, educational level, and elderly health status. classification.
Zheng Bingwen believes that the “14th Five-Year Plan” that is being formulated needs to make more institutional arrangements in response to the aging population. During the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan" period, my country's population structure will undergo major structural changes, and the aging population will exceed the 300 million mark; the aging rate will rise to 20%. In the face of these changes, my country should implement provincial-level co-ordination of the pension insurance system as soon as possible, improve the financial sustainability of the system, and improve the retirement system as soon as possible.
"As an important reform to improve financial sustainability, (improving the retirement system) is not just raising the retirement age, but a basket of system design, which mainly includes: 1. Regulating the retirement age, targeting the early retirement system for some special jobs Abuse, we should standardize the retirement age system as soon as possible; 2. Raise the legal retirement age; 3. Implement a flexible retirement system; 4. Implement a retirement application system; 5. Improve the treatment mechanism for retirees." Zheng Bingwen suggested at this press conference .
The report proposes that the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan" will become the most important "window period" for my country to cope with the aging of the population, and recommends the step-by-step implementation of the retirement age adjustment plan to prepare for the full implementation of retirements over the age of 60.
Author: Guo Jinhui Editor: Yang
Drawing/Zhang Yijun