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June 18, 2020 "The contraction caused by Covid-19 has been heterogeneous in the various countries and sectors. Among the major economies of the euro area there has been a more marked decline in economic activity in France, Italy and Spain which in Germany and the Netherlands ". This is what is read in the latest economic bulletin published by the ECB. Overall, we read: "The impact of the closure measures has translated into a marked contraction of industrial production in the euro area which in March 2020 suffered an unprecedented decline of 11.3% compared to the previous month and 3.3 percent in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the previous quarter. "

World GDP estimate -4%
The serious "international disturbances" linked to the Covid-19 pandemic mean that the ECB estimates for this year a contraction of world GDP in real terms (excluding the euro area) equal to 4.0 percent. "The pace of this contraction is faster and greater than what was observed during the Great Recession. After the sharp reduction in the first two quarters, in the third quarter of 2020 world activity is expected to move towards recovery and grow in the 2021 and 2022, respectively, by 6.0 percent and 3.9 percent ". 

Expected inflation down
"Taking into account current oil prices and related futures contracts, overall inflation is likely to decline further in the coming months, remaining at moderate levels until the end of the year". In the medium term, central bank experts explain, "greater weakness in demand will lead to downward pressure on inflation, only partially offset by upward pressure linked to supply-side constraints. Long-term gains from the markets remained very low. Although survey-based inflation expectations indicators declined in the short and medium term, longer-term expectations showed less impact. " According to Eurostat's rapid estimate, twelve-month inflation in the euro area measured on the HICP fell to 0.1% in May, from 0.3 in April, mainly due to the more moderate trend in the euro area. energy component. 

ECB estimate: GDP -8.7% in 2020
In the baseline scenario of projections, annual GDP in real terms would decrease by 8.7 percent in 2020, rising by 5.2 percent in 2021 and 3.3 percent in 2022. This is what is read in the latest ECB bulletin that explains how compared to the March 2020 exercise conducted by ECB experts, the prospects for real GDP expansion have undergone a sharp downward revision, equal to 9.5 percentage points for 2020, and upward for 2021 and 2022, respectively by 3.9 and 1.9 percentage points. "Given the exceptional uncertainty that currently characterizes the prospects - the central bank underlines - the projections also include two alternative scenarios". In general, the extent of the contraction and recovery will depend decisively on the duration and effectiveness of the containment measures, on the success of the policies aimed at mitigating the adverse impact on income and employment and on the extent to which the production capacity and internal demand will suffer permanent effects. The Governing Council believes that "overall, the risks to the baseline scenario are downward oriented". 

Italian SMEs the most penalized in Europe
Italian SMEs have paid the highest salary in the coronavirus crisis. This is what emerges from the ECB's Economic Bulletin. In particular, explain the experts of the institute of Frankfurt, the contraction in turnover "was more abrupt" in Italy than in other Eurozone countries. More generally, the Bulletin reports that euro area SMEs reported a contraction in turnover for the first time since the beginning of 2014. In terms of net percentages, the change in turnover reported by companies was equal to - 2% for the euro area as a whole. "The sharpest drop was recorded in Italy, followed by Slovakia, Greece and Spain, while in Germany and France a much smaller net percentage of SMEs indicated an increase in turnover". At the sector level, the industry seems to have been the hardest hit by the deterioration in profits (-20 percent, compared to the previous -7 percent), especially in Italy ". Also in the commerce sector, the 19 percent net of SMEs from the the euro area recorded a drop in profits; "this share reaches 37% in Italy and 30% in Spain".

Italian air transport among the most penalized in the world
International air transport was among the most penalized by the pandemic of coronavirus. And Italy has recorded a collapse that is above the global average. In the Economic Bulletin, the ECB points out that worldwide, the capacity of scheduled flights has decreased by 65 percent. In the United States and Japan decreased by 72 and 48 percent, respectively, while in China it fell by 71 percent and then went back to 20 percent less than the levels of 2019. In Italy, Spain, France and Germany, flight capacity suffered a strong c alo, equal to more than 90 percent compared to the corresponding period of 2019. A collapse in flight capacity, says the Bulletin, which has no precedent in the history of aviation.