Beirut (AFP)

New US sanctions come into force this week against the regime of Bashar al-Assad, accused of the worst abuses in the conflict that has been tearing Syria apart since 2011, while Damascus seeks to launch the reconstruction of the country.

Will the Caesar law, which frames these sanctions, be able to achieve the objectives hoped for by Washington? What impact for the Syrian economy, the population and the allies of Damascus?

What impact for the diet?

The Syrian regime but also businessmen close to power are already the target of American and European economic sanctions. The Caesar law widens the scope of sanctions.

It provides for measures against foreign entities collaborating with the government, in particular those Russian or Iranian active in Syria, where Moscow and Tehran support the Assad regime.

"The United States has yet to clarify where, and how far, sanctions will be applied," said Edward Dehnert, an analyst with The Economist Intelligence Unit. "But we can say that real estate, construction, energy and infrastructure will be particularly affected."

Enacted by US President Donald Trump in December, the law also provides for "special measures" against the Central Bank of Syria if it turns out that it is engaged in money laundering operations.

For Mr. Dehnert, the Caesar law is another attempt by Washington to "impose a political solution (...) and oust Bashar al-Assad".

But "Mr. Assad's position is secure," he believes, while Damascus has consolidated its hold on more than 70% of the country.

The sanctions could "limit the profits" to be drawn, for the regime and its partners, "from the economic opportunities brought by the reconstruction process", he underlines.

They were designed "to maintain the regime as an outcast. The threat of American punitive action will be enough to scare off the majority of investments."

In order to lift the sanctions, the law requires in particular that anyone suspected of "war crime" or implicated in the bombing of civilians be tried, and that "political prisoners" be released.

What consequences for the population?

Damascus castigated the Caesar law, saying it would worsen the economic hardship of the people.

Fears that arose even before the sanctions were passed have contributed to a historic collapse of the national currency, experts say. And the sanctions could complicate imports, especially fuel.

"Unfortunately, the Syrians are the ones who will suffer the most," predicts Dehnert.

The regions under government control have experienced a fuel shortage for two years and 80% of the population lives below the poverty line according to the UN. Food prices have experienced 133% inflation since May 2019.

"We have suffered a lot from the constantly renewed sanctions," deplores Hiba Chaabane, a 28-year-old student in Damascus, for whom the Caesar law is "another face of war".

"These sanctions drive up food prices," she said.

For his part, Hassane Toutanji, director of a clinic in Damascus, fears "restrictions on the import of equipment", and of raw materials "necessary for the manufacture of medicines".

What about the allies of Damascus?

The law aims to muzzle the influence of Iran and Russia, two powers already targeted by American sanctions but which have secured investments in Syria within the framework of reconstruction.

But it could on the contrary give them a boost: by frightening certain traditional investors, "the United States is reducing competitiveness" in a race in which Moscow and Tehran "already have a significant advantage", estimates Mr. Dehnert.

The sanctions risk undermining the enthusiasm of the United Arab Emirates, a Gulf country that has reestablished diplomatic ties with Damascus.

In neighboring Lebanon, American sanctions are worrying. Long a source of foreign exchange for Syrian businessmen, the country is now bankrupt.

"The Caesar law (...) aims to starve Lebanon as it aims to starve Syria," said Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the Shiite Hezbollah movement, militarily engaged in Syria alongside the regime, on Tuesday.

Beyond the case of Hezbollah, the two countries are closely linked on the economic level, with in particular agricultural exports from Lebanon transiting through Syria and construction and transport companies eyeing the Syrian market.

A Lebanese government commission has been created to examine the possible repercussions of the Caesar law.

"Doing business with Syria will become even more difficult and risky," said Heiko Wimmen of the International Crisis Group (ICG).

© 2020 AFP