During the six years of the ebb and flow of negotiations and the resumption and resumption of negotiations, the media and official controversy between Egypt and Ethiopia over the recent Renaissance Dam on the waters of the Blue Nile River did not stop.
With the failure of all rounds of negotiations over the past years, Ethiopia says it is proceeding with its plan to fill the Renaissance Dam by next July, saying that "there is no need to notify Sudan and Egypt of this."
In light of Cairo's fears of Addis Ababa trying to impose a fait accompli policy, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry announced that his country is considering resorting to the UN Security Council to prevent Ethiopia from taking unilateral action on the Renaissance Dam.
According to the apparent indications, Cairo seems unable to deal with Addis Ababa without any strength papers, and it appears that it is on its way to losing the battle to fill the dam's reservoir and maintain its annual share of the Nile's water amounting to 55.5 billion cubic meters, after Ethiopia had previously succeeded in the battle of building The dam was signed by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi on the Khartoum document in 2015, in which he recognized Ethiopia's right to build the dam.
From the logic of the force, Ethiopia refuses to abide by any pledges or sign any agreements. It also strongly rejects Egypt’s resort to the Security Council and considers that it is not an indication of transparency and goodwill in the negotiations, stressing that it does not aim to harm Egypt’s interests, and that the aim of building the dam is to generate electricity mainly She said.
With the escalation of controversy and mutual threat between the two countries, the reasons for the dispute between the two countries remain ambiguous for many, and with the process of building the dam approaching, the Egyptians' fears and questions about the potential effects of the dam on their lives and their economy increase, Al-Jazeera Net is trying to answer the most important of these questions.
What are the main points of disagreement between Egypt and Ethiopia?
Ethiopia is building the Renaissance Dam about 30 km from Sudan's eastern border, with a capacity of 74 million cubic meters, and plans to start filling the dam in the rainy season by next July.
Cairo fears the potential negative impact of the dam on the flow of its annual share of the Nile's water amounting to 55.5 billion cubic meters, and Sudan gets 18.5 billion, while Addis Ababa says it does not aim to harm Egypt's interests, and that the aim of building the dam is to generate electricity mainly.
As long as the agreement on a timetable for filling the dam has been a matter of dispute between the three parties (Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan), Ethiopia wants to finish filling the dam within three years only so that it can generate the electric energy needed for local consumption and export the surplus.
Whereas the filling process will reduce the flows of the Blue Nile towards the downstream countries - Sudan and Egypt - Cairo sees the necessity of extending the period of time for filling the dam to 15 years, to reduce, as far as possible, the effects of the decrease in the quantities of water reaching it during the process of filling the dam of the dam.
Did the agreement that Sisi signed with Ethiopia in 2015 give her the right to build the Renaissance Dam, and why was it not presented to the Egyptian parliament?
Sudanese Presidents Omar al-Bashir and al-Masri Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi and Ethiopian Prime Minister Haile Mariam Dessalene signed on March 23, 2015 in Khartoum a declaration of principles document on the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
According to the text of the agreement - which the Egyptian parliament has not ratified - Egypt has recognized Ethiopia's right to build the Renaissance Dam on the waters of the Blue Nile River, on the general condition that the dam does not harm the interests of the downstream states of Egypt and Sudan, but the agreement did not specify each country's share of the water, nor did it It sets any items for how to resolve the contentious and sticking points between the two countries.
According to Egyptian economist Mahmoud Wahba, Sisi’s signing of this agreement nullified an agreement deposited with the United Nations in 1993 between Egypt and Ethiopia that prohibits the construction of dams.
Wahba asked, in his post on his Facebook account, "Why does Sisi give up an international agreement deposited with the United Nations body that preserves Egypt's water and sovereignty and replaces the Khartoum agreement in 2015, and gives Ethiopia the right to build a dam without conditions or specifications and cancels an international agreement of 1993 ?!" .
The Egyptian economist emphasized that if Sisi withdrew from the Khartoum agreement, the 1993 agreement alone would guarantee Egypt's success in any international arbitration with Ethiopia.
In light of the escalating accusations against Sisi of wasting Egypt's water rights, the latter resorted to trying to charge the January 25 revolution and said, "I will tell you about one mistake or one price we paid and we will pay: 2011 (referring to the revolution). Dams on the Nile have never been built except with them." , Describing his speech as "very dangerous words."
He continued, "I said 2011 only why (why)? Because I brought you (I spoke to you on) one point and they told me: Sisi solution, and we got the water (the solution to the water crisis). You (I mean the Egyptians) who did that (that)."
- Does Ethiopia refuse to sign any written agreement, and why did Egypt and Sudan reject the Ethiopian paper?
In December 2015, the foreign ministers of Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia signed the Khartoum document, which included affirming the agreement to announce the principles signed by the leaders of the three countries, including the assignment of two French offices to implement technical studies on the project, but Ethiopia rejected the results of the initial report of international experts in November / November 2017.
And at the end of last February, Egypt signed, in initials, an agreement to fill and operate the Renaissance Dam under the auspices of Washington and the participation of the World Bank, but Ethiopia refused to sign and presented another document that Egypt and Sudan refused because it does not contain a specific period to fill the lake of the dam.
According to a statement issued by the Egyptian Ministry of Irrigation, Ethiopia hopes that a non-binding paper will be signed whereby the two downstream countries will give up their water rights and recognize Ethiopia as having an unconditional right to use the Blue Nile water unilaterally and to fill and operate the Renaissance Dam in accordance with its individual vision.
She added that the Ethiopian paper does not provide any guarantees that secure the downstream country during periods of prolonged droughts and droughts and do not provide any protection for them from the effects and grave damages that may result from filling and operating the Renaissance Dam.
But the most dangerous according to the Egyptian Ministry of Irrigation is that the Ethiopian paper stipulates the absolute right of Addis Ababa to change and amend the rules for filling and operating the Renaissance Dam unilaterally in light of the rates of electricity generation from the dam and to meet its water needs, without even paying attention to the interests of the downstream country or taking them into account.
What are the possible effects of the Renaissance Dam on Egypt?
According to a study under the scientific supervision of Dr. Essam Hajji, a space scientist who specializes in the study of groundwater and the effects of climate change on desert areas participating in a project to discover water on Mars, published by the Al-Jazeera Net website entitled "Away from politics ... stifling the Nile is the largest scientific coverage of the effects of the Renaissance Dam on Egypt "said in it, if the reservoir of the Renaissance Dam was filled within ten years, the water deficit in Egypt would increase by 8 billion cubic meters annually, which is approximately 14% of Egypt's total annual water budget.
This may result in the event that irrigation methods are not changed to Bouar and desertify about two million acres (about 8 thousand and 35 square kilometers), that is, about 18% of Egypt's agricultural area, which means the loss of 6% of the total workforce and an increase in unemployment rates by an additional 17% From 11% currently.
But if the period decreased to seven years, the water deficit in Egypt will increase by 12 billion cubic meters annually, or about 22% of Egypt's total annual total budget of water, and thus the loss of about 3 million acres (about 12 thousand and 140 square kilometers), or about 30% From the agricultural area of Egypt.
This will lead to a loss of 9% of the total workforce as a minimum, and an increase in unemployment rates by an additional 20%, and this will cause serious economic and social repercussions.
But the most dangerous scenario for Egypt is to fill the dam within three years, as there will be severe consequences for filling the dam during this short period, as Egypt will lose about 27 billion cubic meters of water, or about 50% of its total annual water budget, and accordingly it will lose about 6.75 Millions of acres (20 thousand and 234 square kilometers), or about 67% of its agricultural area.
This will cause the loss of 21% of the total workforce at the very least, and the rise in unemployment rates in the country by 34% as a minimum, and the consequences will be serious social and economic risks such as high crime rates and increased possibilities of displacement and irregular migration.
- What is the position of international law if Ethiopia insists on filling the dam reservoir without coordination with Egypt?
Cairo has been negotiating with Addis Ababa for nine years without reaching concrete results, and before going into the resumption of trilateral negotiations this week, Egypt has informed both Russia, Germany and Italy of their acceptance of returning to the negotiating table provided that Ethiopia does not take any unilateral measures regarding the dam, including filling as well as Cairo continues international consultations.
Cairo may resort to a request to stop the construction of the dam through the Security Council before heading to an international judicial battle in the event that Ethiopia goes to fill the dam without an agreement, according to the fifth clause of the Declaration of Principles signed between the three countries in 2015, which states that Fill only after agreeing the rules for filling and operating.
Can Egypt resort to a military solution?
With the negotiations stalled, many analysts in Egypt are calling on the government to turn to the military option to protect Egypt's water rights.
The situation in Ethiopia is not different. Berhanu Gola, Deputy Chief of the Ethiopian Staff, said that "his country will strongly defend itself and its interests in the Renaissance Dam", and demanded - in press statements - Egypt not to adopt what he called the policy of wars in order for water to flow in the interests of the two countries.
However, Professor of Dams Engineering and Coastal Engineering Mohamed Hafez said that any Egyptian military action against the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has become impossible, because it would threaten the integrity of Sudan's dams.
In his post on his Facebook page, Hafez said that the latest satellite imagery of the Renaissance Dam shows that there are more than 100 million cubic meters of water in front of the dam.
Hafiz commented on the photos, saying, "An early start of the Blue Nile flood and the end of the Egyptian military option forever, because any sabotage of the Renaissance Dam will lead to the destruction of the Sudanese dams (Rusais, Sennar, and Merowe) less than a week after the destruction of the Renaissance Dam."
Whether Cairo decides to continue negotiations or resort to a military option, some people ask the following question:
Does Egypt have the military capability to destroy the dam in a preemptive strike?
To answer this question, we point out first that the official Egypt has never talked about the possibility of war during the years of the crisis, but even the media close to the authority avoided that, leaving the threat from time to time to what might be "electronic committees" on social networking sites.
Among the few times that an Egyptian military expert spoke to the media about the prospects of this war, the military expert, Mohamed al-Kinani said that French "Rafale" fighters owned by Egypt would have the upper hand in front of weapons owned by Ethiopia, such as "Su-25" ground attack aircraft and "Su" fighters. -27 ″, Volga and Pechora missiles, and the Panzer S1 short-range artillery missile systems.
Israeli newspapers have reported that Tel Aviv has provided the Ethiopian army with short and medium-range "Spider" air defense systems to protect the Renaissance Dam.
But Kanani considered in press statements that this Israeli regime is not a fortified regime, and he demonstrated his opinion saying, "During the mutual air strikes between India and Pakistan, the Pakistani Air Force carried out a sudden and successful air attack on February 27, 2019 against Indian military sites in Jammu and Kashmir, it was It is protected by Israeli Spider Batteries. "
He added that "the Egyptian fighters can face the batteries of the Israeli short and medium-range Spider missiles, whether they are armed with Python-5 short-range thermal missiles (15 km and 9 km altitude) or medium-range Derby radar missiles (50 km and 16 km altitude)."