Pressure Element: Why Trump Plans to Reduce US Military in Germany

US President Donald Trump promised to cut the number of US troops in Germany by more than half, blaming Berlin for cooperation with Moscow in the energy sector and accusing him of insufficient NATO funding.

“We are reducing the number (of the American contingent. - RT ) to 25 thousand troops. Let's see what happens. But Germany does not pay fees. In addition, it was I who raised this topic. Everyone is talking about Trump's ties with Russia. And I have long said: why does Germany pay Russia billions of dollars for energy, and then we must protect Germany from Russia? How it works? It won’t work, ”Trump told reporters.

The American leader also said that now in the territory of Germany there are 52 thousand US troops.

“This is an incredible amount. And the United States incurs incredible expenses in connection with this, and in the meantime, Germany, as you know, is violating its contributions to NATO, ”said the head of the White House.

According to Trump, the contribution of Germany to the financing of the alliance is insufficient.

“Germany pays one percent (of GDP. - RT ), although it would have to pay two. But even two percent is very small. There must be so much more. So she doesn’t pay extra billions of dollars, ”Trump said.

At the same time, well-paid American troops live in Germany and “spend a lot of money there,” the US president said.

“The areas around (military. - RT ) bases in Germany are booming. Take Germany takes. And with all this, it does not treat us well with regard to trade, ”said the head of the White House.

Trump emphasized that over the years of trade cooperation with Germany, "the United States is losing hundreds of billions of dollars."

“The United States protects her (Germany. - RT ), and she profits from trading with us,” said Trump. - We are working on an agreement with Germany, but all this is very unfair. And I can say that it is Germany that behaves the most dishonestly. ”

• The White house
• © Jonathan Ernst / Reuters

In response to Trump's statements about contingent contraction, the German ambassador to the United States, Emily Haber, emphasized that the American military contingent is in Europe to protect transatlantic security and demonstrate the global power of the United States.

“The US military is not there to defend Germany, but to ensure transatlantic security ... And also to maintain an American presence in Africa and Asia,” said Haber.

Earlier, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas also responded to information about the reduction of the American contingent in Germany. According to him, there is nothing surprising in the fact that the US move was not coordinated with the German side.

"If it is clear that such a decision (on the withdrawal of US troops from Germany. - RT ) was not completely agreed upon in the US government, it is not surprising that it was not agreed with us either," the minister said on the German television channel ZDF.

According to the head of the department, "many in Washington are unhappy with how this decision was made."

In addition, Maas called the relationship between Berlin and Washington complex.

“Let's just say it’s difficult,” said Maas, answering the question, what is the current state of bilateral relations between Berlin and Washington.

Incorrect Argument

The dean of the Moscow State University’s Faculty of World Politics, Andrei Sidorov, considers it a coincidence that, while motivating the need to reduce the American contingent in Germany, Trump calls Germany’s cooperation with Russia one of the arguments in the energy sector.

“Here, the head of the White House primarily means the construction of Nord Stream 2.” And Trump actually uses the contingent reduction as an element of pressure on Berlin to stop cooperation with Moscow on the construction of the gas pipeline. That is, Trump makes it clear that he is ready to put pressure even on the NATO ally for the sake of economic benefits and the desire to promote its LNG, ”Sidorov said in an interview with RT.

According to Vladimir Olenchenko, a senior fellow at the Center for European Studies at the IMEMO RAS, the reference to energy cooperation between Berlin and Moscow in Trump’s statement “looks extremely strange.”

“Such an argument can hardly be called correct and justified. Germany works with Russia in the framework of Nord Stream 2 and buys Russian gas to provide its population with the necessary resources at competitive prices, receiving economic benefits from this. In the case of NATO, Germany does not receive tangible dividends - the bloc spends money on the US military-industrial complex and takes into account only the interests of the United States, ”the expert said.

According to Sidorov, Trump’s rhetoric suggests that the United States "intends by any means to try to block Nord Stream 2."

“However, despite Washington’s efforts, the gas pipeline will still be completed,” the analyst said.

At the same time, Sidorov notes that Trump’s statement does not mean an actual reduction in the US contingent in Germany or its transfer, for example, to Poland.

• US military in Germany
• Reuters
• © Fabian Bimmer

“The words of American politicians often diverge from deeds. In this case, it is more like Trump's diplomatic move, the purpose of which is to put pressure on Germany and force it to go strictly in the wake of Washington. Moreover, for the redeployment of troops to Poland, it will be necessary to create the appropriate infrastructure - barracks, training grounds and other facilities. All this is quite expensive, ”the expert explained. 

As for military strategy, here the United States "will not gain anything" due to the transfer of part of the troops from Germany, Sidorov believes.

“In a hypothetical conflict with Russia, which is often talked about in NATO and the United States, Poland will be on the front line. Therefore, it would be wrong to transfer the shock American units there from the point of view of the Pentagon. Because the troops, which are located in Germany, are the support. They can be deployed by reinforcing units deployed from the United States. In the event of an unforeseen conflict with Russia, the US military in Poland will immediately be under attack, ”said the analyst.

According to Olenchenko, even if the United States eventually withdraws some of its troops from Germany, for the German side this "will not be a significant loss."

“Germany never asked the Americans to deploy their troops on its territory. This was the initiative of the United States after the end of World War II, even before the establishment of the NATO bloc. Then they were given the status of American bases, and then the status of an alliance component, ”the expert recalled.

Political Bluff

According to experts, Trump also wants to show other NATO allies that, if they do not invest sufficiently in the alliance and act in the interests of Washington, the consequences will not be long in coming.

Recall that with the requirements for NATO member countries to increase their spending on the needs of the alliance, Trump has repeatedly made statements. Even during his election campaign, he promised to reconsider the obligations of the United States under the bloc if the remaining members of the alliance did not increase defense spending to 2% of their GDP.

Later, in January 2017, the head of the White House accused the bloc states of inadequate defense spending. After that, Trump continued to periodically touch upon the already traditional theme that not all countries of the North Atlantic Alliance give the prescribed 2% for its defense needs.

In May of that year, the American leader at the NATO summit said that 23 out of 28 countries (at that time there were 28 in the bloc) “do not pay what they owe for their defense, and this is dishonest towards the American people and taxpayers” .

Trump raised the topic of financing the block by other countries of the alliance at a similar meeting in 2018. Then he expressed dissatisfaction with the fact that Berlin intends to achieve a level of defense spending of 2% of GDP only by the end of the 2020s and the beginning of the 2030s.

And in December 2019, at the end of the NATO summit in London, the American president announced that he “forced” the leaders of the bloc of states to collectively pay $ 130 billion more annually.

The Fake News Media is doing everything possible to belittle my VERY successful trip to London for NATO. I got along great with the NATO leaders, even getting them to pay $ 130 Billion a year more, & $ 400 Billion a year more in 3 years. No increase for US, only deep respect!

However, as analysts note, Trump does not intend to stop there. He plans to maximize the spending of other countries and minimize US spending.

According to Andrei Sidorov, Trump’s new statements regarding the withdrawal of more than half of US troops from Germany are part of Trump’s strategic line aimed at cutting United States spending.

“The head of the White House has never concealed his dissatisfaction with the fact that the United States, in his opinion, is unfairly bearing the burden of protecting allies. This is his key goal, he wants to achieve the maximum reduction of Washington’s obligations in the framework of NATO. And now, trump, threatening with the withdrawal of part of the troops, is trying to force Germany to increase spending on the defense of the alliance, ”the expert said.

Vladimir Olenchenko, for his part, said that Germany’s strategy to “refrain from raising its NATO spending to 2% of GDP right away is justified.”

“Trump is silent that a significant part of Berlin’s spending on the so-called defense spending of the bloc is actually the acquisition and modernization of American weapons,” the analyst explained.

• Symbols of NATO
• Reuters
• © Yves Herman

Olenchenko also called Trump's statement about the withdrawal of part of the troops from Germany “political bluff”, characteristic of the American leadership.

At the same time, predicting the response of Berlin to the actions of the American side, the expert said that relations between Germany and the United States will continue to deteriorate if Trump is re-elected for a second term.

“The acting head of the White House by his measures only aggravates the situation against the background of the already hopeless prospects of bilateral relations between Berlin and Washington. Pragmatic Germans are already tired of American pressure, moralizing, and see no reason to pay for Americans in Europe. At the same time, the United States will continue to put pressure on Germany, coming up with new pretexts for this. But the White House will not be able to force Germany to fully act as he wants. Germany, in turn, will steadily look for ways of greater isolation from the United States, pursuing an increasingly independent policy, ”the analyst concluded.